Jeff Kagan; Telecom analyst

Analysis, research and comment on the changing telecommunications industry since the mid 1980's

Analyst ~ Consultant ~ Speaker ~ Trend Watcher ~ Market researcher ~ Provocateur

Kagan attends and speaks at a wide variety of meetings of all competitors, and at meetings of investors and investment groups, advertising and public relations groups, university and educational groups, and more . . .

Every year around this anniversary I post a note like this. This has nothing to do with telecom, but may be extremely important to you. As you may be aware, a few years ago I had a stroke. It was a sunny day. We were loading the van for a beach vacation with the family. About an hour and a half into the trip I stopped at Starbucks to grab a cup of coffee because I felt tired. After driving for a few more minutes I asked my wife to drive for a while. I slept the rest of the way. That's when it happened.

I did not go to the hospital during the first four hours. I was in the passenger seat sleeping. The damage was done. Now I have spent the last few years recovering. Mine is just one story. 750,000 people every year will suffer a stroke. Since it takes a long time to recover, if you can recover, that means there are millions of people and families dealing with the aftermath.

Stroke affects so many, yet we don't talk about it, and no one knows what to do. If you think you, or someone you know or love is having a stroke, ACT NOW. Time is vitally important. Most damage to the brain occurs during the first four hours as the part of the brain dies from lack of oxygenated blood. You are better off being wrong and visiting the hospital and having it not be a stroke... then being wrong and not visiting the hospital and having a part of your brain die. Remember what they say, TIME LOST IS BRAIN LOST.

Who is Jeff KAGAN ?

Jeff KAGAN is one America's best known and most often quoted telecom industry analysts

Jeff Kagan is a telecom industry analyst focusing on the changing wireless and wire-line telecommunications business. He examines the competitive technologies and the advertising and marketing issues and strategies these companies face as they compete. This includes technology trends, customer behavior, business models, and attitudes of both the customer and the competitors.

Kagan is not a stock analyst, however he watches the rise and fall of stock prices of competitors of the industry over the last twenty years. He examines their history, where they are now, and where they are expected to be in the months and years ahead and why.

He offers strategic vision and advice to those looking for his insight. He offers commentary to a variety of clients, competitors, investment groups, advertising and public relations agencies and a variety of other companies and groups through teleconferences, speeches, reports and meetings.

Kagan regularly meets with and talks with the competitors, compares their strategies, products, services, competitive actions and offers comments in speeches, articles, research and in conversations with the media.

There is a difference between investors and customers. The investment community wants improvements in stock price on a regular basis. Customers care about how the company is delivering and pricing services and how well those services work. These two areas can often be in opposition.

Kagan has tracked the companies as the industry evolves over the last twenty years, from local and long distance companies, to wireless, to internet and now to television.

He follows all the companies and is available to participate in their analyst relations programs.

His earnings are generated from a variety of fees including speaking fees and consulting fees.

He follows the news, announcements, competitive issues and trends of the industry and offers comment, analysis and opinion to the media, to companies and at industry meetings and conferences.

His comments and analysis have shown up in thousands of articles and news stories in all the major print and broadcast media including USA Today, The Wall Street Journal, New York Times, Business Week, Fortune, CNN, CNBC, ABC, CBS, etc.

As a nationally recognized industry analyst he is also a highly sought speaker, commentator, columnist, professional agitator and author.

Kagan has given keynote addresses and speeches at a wide variety of of corporate meetings and industry conferences ranging in size from a handful of senior execs to a few thousand customers, employees or conference attendees.

He is also called on by advertising and public relations agencies and many other firms who are interested in his analysis of the changing industry and marketplace, and who want to brief him on their announcements and strategies.

Kagan is a 'fee based' analyst. He gives interviews, analysis and insights to the media for free, and charges everyone else.

As a "friend to all" he brings an objective, outside perspective on competitive and customer issues and trends. Mr. Kagan started his practice in 1987.

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Jeff KAGAN BLOG:

Jeff KAGAN posts thoughts on the wireless and wire-line telecom industry he covers.

If helpful, you may quote Kagan and use any of these comments in your reporting of these stories.

Attribute quotes to Jeff Kagan, wireless and telecom industry analyst based in Atlanta.

Photo from New York Times article

Kagan on new iPhone particulars

Today I got email from both AT&T Wireless and from Apple talking about the specifics of the new iPhone going on sale next Friday morning June 11. Prices, features and even a video to watch online. They are getting ready for a big rollout, again.

Last years iPhone launch was an amazing blowout. Both AT&T Wireless and Apple learned quite a bit from that experience. They want to keep to parts that worked well, and fix the parts that squeaked.

I think both AT&T Wireless and Apple are expecting another blowout this year. I tend to agree. But there are some interesting questions we will have to follow as it is launched.

Last year the iPhone created the category. They had no competition. All eyes were on iPhone. Now, one year later we see the second generation iPhone ready to be launched, but the category is one year old and there are plenty of competitors in the marketplace.

Sprint just launched their Instinct phone by Samsung a few weeks ago and it is great. This gives Sprint the ability to compete. Verizon Wireless also has a device to compete, but is their first generation that was launched a while ago. Their next generation will be better. Every generation of this new phone keeps getting better.

This new category of phone is going to be followed closely again this year, but there are a number of competitors offering phones which will delight the customer.

But customers who want an actual Apple iPhone can only get it from AT&T Wireless. They are the only provider for the next few years.

The new iPhone looks very similar to last years iPhone. There are some important improvements. One is the network. This new iPhone users AT&T Wirelesses 3G network. That will speed things up for the user. Speed was one of the only real complaints I heard about during the last year.

There are a variety of either new or improved features. I think the average user will want to upgrade. That is the question. How many of these new iPhones will be sold to people who bought the first iPhone last year? There will be some. The question is how many.

That is the difference between iPhone and another cellphone. The iPhone customer is an Apple customer and they are a different breed. They always want the newest version of anything Apple puts into the market.

A little over a week to go. Can't you just feel the energy in the marketplace building! Buckle your seatbelt. Here we go again.

Kagan on Virgin Mobile USA acquiring Helio

Virgin Mobile USA has had a strong history of growth over the last several years. However that growth has slowed over the last several months. The company is updating their handsets as it faces renewed competition from major competitors entering their market.

On Tuesday of this week Virgin Mobile USA unveiled their unlimited offering. This should help them secure their customer base.

Now they acquired Helio. This makes sense for Virgin Mobile USA. This will give them a new base of customers and revenues with more advanced services. The next question will be, can they hang onto this asset. If they can hang on to this group of customers and revenues then they will be ahead of the game.

This acquisition should help them mature their offerings with more advanced handsets and networks and customers. This will help them offer more advanced services to the youth market and maybe to help them focus on a more mature group of customers with higher monthly bills.

Virgin Mobile USA intends to continue focusing on the youth market as their target. This acquisition of Helio will help them offer a more integrated product suite to more advanced customers.

As the industry continues to consolidate I think there will be a variety of similar acquisition opportunities over the next several years. It will be interesting to see if Virgin Mobile USA continues this acquisition path.

As in the past, companies can grow through such acquisitions if it is conducted well.

Generally speaking they will use the Virgin Mobile brand in most market segments, but I expect them to continue using Helio as a brand in certain smaller groups.

This is one of many steps I see Virgin Mobile USA taking in the next few years. Virgin Mobile USA remains a strong Tier 2 competitor.

Building a wireless business can be difficult. Once Virgin Mobile reached 3-4 million customers they were sure they would continue to do well. Network costs are key and companies need a sizable customer base to have it all make sense. There have been other competitors jumping into the MVNO marketplace during the last several years. Many of those smaller competitors are now struggling. These are all potential acquisitions going forward.

Virgin Mobile USA has gotten to scale and is now doing well. I think we will start to see more of these kinds of acquisition over the next few years.

Kagan on Sony Ericsson's poor quarter

In today's marketplace some wireless competitors are doing really well, but at this time Sony Ericsson is not one of them.

This is not something that has to continue, but they have to make some changes going forward.

The marketplace has two sides. One is simple handsets. The other is the more advanced handsets that do everything we have been hearing about.

Companies like Apple with their iPhone and Samsung with their new Instinct have been doing very well. These are devices that capture the imagination. These devices have quite a bit of growth potential ahead.

Traditional handsets are not as exciting and especially in tough economic times we see sales slowing.

Sony Ericsson mostly makes basic handsets. We have not heard of their handsets in the news. They need to expand their line to include what customers are buying today.

There is plenty of change that is still coming in wireless. We are in the early innings of this game. There is still time for Sony Ericsson to shift gears and be a leader.

Lets see if they do it.

Kagan on Sprint Instinct first week sales record

Sprints new Instinct phone is off to a fast start.

Sprint unveiled the new Instinct phone a few months ago at the CTIA show in Las Vegas. It looked like a very good device.

Haven't seen one since until it was launched last week. I have been using one of the devices for a few days and it is a very advanced wireless device where you can watch live television, movies, take pictures and videos and email them or upload them, an excellent GPS to keep me from getting lost, web browser, great touch screen and more.

I don't have to explain what it looks like because everywhere you look you can find ads for this device.

Every once in a while a device captures the imagination. Last year it was the Apple iPhone. This year it may be the Sprint Instinct by Samsung. It will be interesting to see how the new Apple iPhone does in comparison.

Sprint just announced after the first full week of sales, the Instinct has sold more than any other Sprint EVDO device in the first week. That is a great start. Now we have to see if the numbers stay that strong going forward.

This is going to be a very interesting summer.

Kagan on RIM quarter and future

RIM Blackberry is still one of the hottest devices on the market today. Newer devices to existing customers, plus new potential customers around the globe keep RIM a very successful player.

The future still looks bright for the company, but there are also new competitors that could upset the apple cart.

Apple with their iPhone is a big threat to RIM with their Blackberry. There are assorted new competitors like Sprints new Instinct by Samsung which are aimed at the Apple iPhone and the RIM Blackberry and the Palm Treo and Centro.

We have already sold about 260 million cellphones in the US marketplace and there are only 300 million Americans to market to. These smart phones will capture a bigger share of the market as we go forward.

RIM hit a speed bump which has affected their stock price, but if we look out a year and beyond I think the company will continue to do well, although competing fiercely with new devices and competitors.

The segment RIM competes in is going to get white hot during the next few years.

Kagan on T-Mobile home phone service

T-Mobile is rolling out their home phone service addition to their regular wireless service. This enables users to use T-Mobile for both home phone service as well as wireless service. This looks like a simple VoIP connection over a high speed internet line.

Quality of calls over VoIP can vary depending on a number of issues around the country. However T-Mobile is rolling this out on a nationwide basis after a test for the past few months. So apparently they are satisfied with the quality. As the quality becomes more stable this will be one of the core services we will be using at home and the office.

It is important to get this right, because they don't want to upset otherwise happy customers of T-Mobile wireless service.

Today we have roughly 260 million wireless phones in the US marketplace and there are only 300 million of us in the market. New sales are slowing. Carriers are developing new ideas to market.

It will be interesting to see how successful this is. It will give us more of an idea of how ready customers are for this combined service. As we go through the years I think this kind of thinking will work. The question is will the market buy it today.

Kagan on Virgin Mobile unlimited plans

I think if we go out a few years and look back, 2008 will be the year that unlimited in wireless was born.

Following other major competitors like AT&T, Verizon, Sprint, T-Mobile, Cellular South and others Virgin Mobile is joining the flat rate, unlimited pricing model.

The reason is their growth has slowed in recent months, in part due to the unlimited plans offered by their competitors. The question is will this help them?

Having an unlimited plan is a necessary step all competitors need to offer in order to compete for this group of customers. Without this plan Virgin Mobile could have basically written off this very valuable segment of the market.

Virgin Mobile focuses on the youth market. The question is how many of their customers would qualify for this price. However it does not cost them anything to have this plan in the market. And it will help them attract higher spending customers. Does this mean they are now focusing on a higher level of customer? Or just having a plan for the smaller group of high level customers they can attract?

Their handsets are very basic. Probably good for the youth market which they focus on, but not for a more mature customer group. They plan to offer more advanced handsets. That will be helpful to them as the rest of the market continues to get better and sharper. It will be interesting to see if Virgin Mobile starts to grow past the basic youth market.

I don't know if this plan will help them kick their growth back into a higher gear, but it won't hurt them if it doesn't. So either way it is a safe move for the company.

Kagan on Verizon increasing FiOS speed

Verizon increased the speed of their FiOS service. That sounds great, and some day that will be important, but I don't think it will matter that much today.

All the carriers think that faster speeds are needed to compete.

The average customer is very happy with about a 3 Mbps connection. Once in a while they need a faster connection, but most customers would prefer the lower cost at the 3 or 5 mbps speed.

This sounds like the fast speeds offered by companies like Comcast. I think competitors think that is important.

It may be important if the customer doesn't have to pay more for the faster speed. But if they have to pay more, most customers don't need it today.

As the industry continues to mature customers will need faster speeds. Some day these fast connections will be needed. Just not yet for the average customer.

This faster speed won't hurt Verizon, and it sounds great, but I don't think it will really matter yet.

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Jeff Kagan is quoted in media stories on the wireless and telecom and consumer electronics industry in major media nationwide and globally, hundreds of times per year, year after year, in newspapers, magazines, trade journals, television and radio.

Telecom Trends; A look at what's ahead for telecom in '07, with Jeffrey Kagan... and CNBC's David Faber. CNBC

"What man is key to press coverage of the telecommunications industry? What man's disappearance would bring telco reporting to a grinding halt? Never heard of Jeff Kagan? Well, obviously you don't read about the telecom industry. Because if you did, you'd have heard of him, all right." TheStreet.com

"One of America's most often quoted industry analysts" Kensington Group, Inc. Analyst Quotation Tracking System (TM)

"One of America's most influential industry analysts" ADWEEK's Technology Marketing Magazine, Influencers Report

"It's fair to say that Jeffrey Kagan of Atlanta is an expert on telecommunications. He wrote a book on the subject, gives interviews and speeches and keeps up with the latest trends." NEW YORK TIMES

Jeff KAGAN columns, articles and pithy quotes...

To find a sampling of news stories, articles or columns Kagan has either written or been quoted in, use your favorite search engine or try these.

Over the last twenty years I have followed the wireless, telecom and consumer electronics space. Working as an analyst I have followed all the major competitors including Baby Bells, long distance companies, wireless phone companies, internet companies, equipment firms, cable television companies and consumer electronics companies.

I have always worked with all the competitors. Therefore I invite you to contact me and discuss becoming a client company so I can track your company more closely in relation to the competitors and offer helpful and more accurate analysis to the marketplace.

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Who is Jeff KAGAN ?

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