Sprint Needs More Fighting Spirit

Stop Playing Favorites, Handset Makers

Google Fiber: Internet, TV Will Never Be the Same

Verizon: A Changing Company in a Changing Industry

Introducing the New Microsoft

http://www.ecommercetimes.com/story/Is-Verizons-Uncomfortable-Silence-Savvy-PR-78259.html

http://www.ecommercetimes.com/story/78259.html

ANALYSIS

By Jeff Kagan

E-Commerce Times

06/14/13 5:00 AM PT

It's a lot easier to see the best way to handle a PR predicament after it's over than it is when you're being buffeted by the storm. Right now, Verizon -- which typically is proactive, if not aggressive, about getting its message out -- is hunkering down and waiting for the worst to pass. This may allow the company to minimize its reputation damage -- or it could be a disastrous PR decision.

Verizon is on the hot seat. It is at the center of the story about releasing customer information to the U.S. National Security Agency.

As it turns out, there is more than one story here. There is the Verizon story and the Prism story. While Verizon does make information about every call available to the NSA, the actual conversation is still private -- for now, at least.

To date, Verizon has been quiet as the argument rages. Is quiet what you expect from the public relations department of any company caught in such a storm? Will quiet help or hurt Verizon and Verizon Wireless in the long term?

This story is much bigger than just Verizon. This is about the U.S. government and issues like invasion of privacy. It's about whether we crossed that line in the sand and went too far or are doing the right thing. Yes, there is a larger debate raging these days.

That's the best reason for Verizon to stay quiet right now. Quiet keeps the storm away from its front door. This is a very interesting story to watch. Valuable lessons can be learned in crisis PR for every company.

Risky Business

If Verizon handles this situation wrong, its reputation could be harmed. It is in a very tricky place -- and this kind of public relations debacle doesn't always play out as planned.

Sometimes it takes on a life of its own. While handling a PR storm correctly can help a company, handling it poorly can be devastating. Often, the devastation does not result from the original problem but from poor handling of it from a PR perspective.

So far, we have not heard Verizon or Verizon Wireless make a sound. This is typically not the way public relations pros would advise a company to go, but quiet has helped Verizon up to now. There is a difference between ordinary PR and crisis PR, though. There is more at stake -- and this is the time for crisis PR management.

It can be argued that Verizon has been handling this PR crisis well by staying quiet. Since Verizon cannot tell the whole story, it's better off keeping its mouth shut. So it is keeping quiet for national security reasons as the furor builds into an intense battle over privacy and politics.

So far, the argument is not focused on Verizon. It is focused on privacy and politics. So the safest position is for Verizon to sit quietly. However, it had better be ready for a sudden change of the weather.

We have learned watching the paths of tornadoes over the last few weeks that storms change course very quickly. What if that kind of shift should suddenly turn the focus on Verizon and Verizon Wireless?

Waiting to Exhale

One big question is whether all of the major U.S. carriers have given up the same kind of customer data that Verizon has turned over. If so, then the pain for Verizon will be lower.

However, if just a few companies are involved and Verizon is one of them, then the pressure cooker will be turned up. If Verizon is the only company, it could get pretty hot.

If that happens, Verizon will have to change PR strategies and hit this problem head on to save it from larger and longer-term problems like customer and investor loss.

The good news is Verizon and Verizon Wireless seem to be handling this storm well so far. The bad news is that if the storm changes course, Verizon could be in danger.

This story is still young and will play itself out over the next few months at least. It is a great lesson for every other company to learn the right and wrong way to handle crisis public relations. There are still privacy and political arguments to be made.

So let's keep our eyes open. School is in session. 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

E-Commerce Times columnist Jeff Kagan is a technology industry analyst and consultant who enjoys sharing his colorful perspectives on the changing industry he's been watching for 25 years. Email him at jeff@jeffKAGAN.com.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------  

http://www.ecommercetimes.com/story/The-Race-for-3rd-Place-in-the-Smartphone-Space-78205.html

http://www.ecommercetimes.com/story/78205.html

ANALYSIS

By Jeff Kagan

E-Commerce Times

06/06/13 5:00 AM PT

We are still very early in the smartphone game. Leadership may change from time to time. It already has changed once. Five years ago, the leaders were BlackBerry and Nokia. Then Apple and Google stepped on the stage and stole the show. Now BlackBerry and Nokia are shadows of their former selves, trying for a comeback. This marketplace has changed very quickly, and it will likely continue to do so.

We have been watching the big guys battle it out for the last few years. Apple's iOS vs. Google's Android on the operating system side, and Apple's iPhone vs. Samsung's Galaxy on the handset side. However little attention has been paid to No. 3. Which company is No. 3? I'll be you don't even know. Yet No. 3 could transform the industry over the next few years.

It seems we've been following the big guys for so long, we forgot about all the other players. The industry seems to be settling into two parts -- Tier I and Tier II. There are quite a few Tier II players, and we are just in the early innings of this game. Leadership in the Tier II space seems to change on a regular basis. What that says to me is there is not one strong third place leader yet -- but that could be changing.

So, whether you ask which company is No. 3 or which company is No. 1 in Tier II, there are quite a few to consider, both new and existing brands. Let's take a look.

Foxconn and Firefox

Mozilla's Firefox OS will soon enter the smartphone space. Foxconn agreed to make a number of brand new handsets running the Firefox OS. Foxconn is that company in Taiwan that makes the iPhone and other things Apple. By the way, it also makes smartphones for a wide variety of companies like Sony, Huawei and ZTE, which will also be working with Mozilla on devices running the new Firefox OS.

Foxconn is one of those winners in wireless that very few have ever heard of. Mozilla chose well. However, while Foxconn is a huge smartphone maker for many brands, Mozilla's Firefox OS is new and untested. I expect a big coming-out party for Firefox OS as it breaks into the market later this year on smartphones offered in Latin America and Europe.

Firefox is not competing in the U.S. market yet. I think Mozilla hopes to get a good running start elsewhere. Whether it will succeed and when it will enter the U.S. marketplace are the next questions. Let's hope it does.

Lenovo's Ambitions

Lenovo may soon launch a new line of smartphones running Windows Phone 8. It already offers a number of Android smartphones. With its Lenovo Reach cloud product, its customers will have an advantage in that they can store information online rather than on a hard drive, making data accessible across platforms and devices. It's just like what Apple is doing with the iCloud and Microsoft with its cloud. This is a growing segment.

Lenovo wants to enter the U.S. smartphone market within a year, but it won't be easy to crack, as there is already plenty of strong competition. It has been very successful in China and elsewhere, so I expect it will come on strong in this marketplace.

Microsoft, Nokia Register

Microsoft's Windows Phone operating system is on smartphones like the Nokia Lumia. Both Microsoft and Nokia have been struggling in the smartphone space, not moving the needle much. Today there are plenty of Lumias on the market, though, and in the last quarter, the Windows Phone OS suddenly seemed to be catching on.

A few months ago, the Windows Phone OS was at roughly 3 percent market share, but now it's at 5 percent. That's a good jump in just a single quarter. Who is the real winner? Is it Microsoft or Nokia? The answer is both. Can Microsoft and Nokia keep it up? Well there is a slice of the customer pie that likes Microsoft Windows Phone. Perhaps they are the same group who like Windows 8.

Perhaps these are the people who want a similar experience on their laptop, tablet and smartphone. Whatever the reason, Microsoft and Nokia are starting to gain some traction. Let's see if they can keep this up.

BlackBerry and All the Rest

Don't think competition for that No. 3 spot is just between these few companies. There are others who want to break in and succeed as well. BlackBerry is now back in the game with its BB10 OS, carving out a niche with its first new devices.

We don't know how well it will do compared to the competition, but it may be holding its own and even growing a bit lately. Many of its existing customers really like the new tech. I hope that is enough to trigger a long-term growth spurt.

There are quite a few other devices either here or coming soon from companies like Sony, Huawei, HTC, ZTE, LG, Motorola, Kyocera and many more.

The More the Merrier

This marketplace can only benefit from more successful competitors. Success for any of these companies will be a matter of building strong demand by innovating with both their technologies and their brands.

It all depends on ideas. What's hot today and what's going to be hot tomorrow? Wireless is changing from a tech business to a fashion business. It will face the same challenges as fashion retailers like Abercrombie & Fitch with all the ups and downs in a rapidly changing market.

Keep your eyes open for companies waking up and starting to hustle. Samsung has soared in the last few months. In the mind of the customer, Samsung has arrived.

Which company will be next to catch the growth wave? Keep your eyes open, because it will happen quickly. 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

E-Commerce Times columnist Jeff Kagan is a technology industry analyst and consultant who enjoys sharing his colorful perspectives on the changing industry he's been watching for 25 years. Email him at jeff@jeffKAGAN.com.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------  

http://www.ecommercetimes.com/story/Lenovos-Shot-at-the-Smartphone-Market-78168.html

http://www.ecommercetimes.com/story/78168.html

ANALYSIS

Lenovo's Shot at the Smartphone Market

By Jeff Kagan

E-Commerce Times

05/31/13 5:00 AM PT

It appears Lenovo is getting ready to bring smartphones to the U.S. market. After acquiring the IBM Thinkpad line of computers, this company has gone from virtually unknown in the United States to one of the heavy hitters. Now Lenovo is entering the smartphone business. Will it be successful?

In China, Lenovo is a strong brand name. Since its acquisition of the IBM Thinkpad business, it has been building its brand in the U.S. market as well. The problem is that the traditional laptop business has softened since the iPad's arrival a few short years ago, triggering the tablet boom.

Only a very few PC companies are holding their own. Lenovo is one of them. It is closing in on the No. 1 laptop marker. What's new? It is also the second-largest smartphone maker in China. Samsung is No. 1. The PC business has been changing. Now smartphones will play a role, and companies that can play in multiple segments stand a much better chance of success.

Apple is building and blending its computer, iPhone and iPad tablet businesses together under its iCloud. This combining of different industries will be Apple's key to success. Standalone computer businesses are struggling, because they only offer one piece of this puzzle.

Samsung is like Apple, in that it sells Android-based phones like the Galaxy S4 and tablets like the Galaxy Tab. It is moving in the cloud direction as well.

This move to sell devices in all these categories and blend them together in the cloud is the future.

Path to Leadership

That brings us to Lenovo. Believe it or not, I think Lenovo may start to look more like Apple and Samsung going forward, by building out its business in these different sectors and blending them together under the Lenovo cloud.

This will take time -- but it will take time for all competitors in the space to change -- and now is the time.

The new Lenovo smartphone business looks successful so far in China. It is also expanding to other countries like India, Russia and Indonesia. The United States looks like it will be one of its next markets within a year.

The U.S. market won't be easy -- it never is.

The global smartphone market is very tough. Samsung and Apple are the two leading manufacturers, but many companies are gunning for the No. 3 position. Companies like BlackBerry, Nokia, Motorola, HTC, LG, Huawei, Sony and several others will compete fiercely with the new Lenovo smartphone brand.

That means success for Lenovo in the smartphone and cloud business is not guaranteed. However, it does have an interesting mix, and that -- along with its marketing -- could spell success. Marketing is key.

All About Brand-Building

Going forward, we can expect to hear much more about the new and expanded Lenovo universe. It's all about marketing -- creating a brand and image that attracts customers.

When we think about the Lenovo brand today, we think about computers like the Thinkpad. Going forward, if it is successful in expanding its brand identity, we will think of Lenovo in terms of computers, smartphones and tablets -- all tied together under the Lenovo cloud. The first thing I would expect to see is brand names built for these different groups.

The wireless business is changing from being tech-oriented to focusing on fashion. The way we market is changing from emphasis on tech to emphasis on emotion. Customers have to want the brand. Each and every brand must be a player in this new world, or it will fail.

If Lenovo is successful, its name will take on a new meaning. Will it be? We'll have to wait and see. However, the senior executives at the company seem to understand the challenge and the new game.

Today Lenovo market share in the smartphone segment is nonexistent in the U.S. It's not even a blip on the radar compared to companies like Apple, Google and Samsung. However, the future of the industry looks very different. Companies will start to sell more devices from different segments and connect them all in their cloud. Leadership may change. There is a real opportunity going forward.

Tomorrow will be very exciting, but it will look very different. We know what the industry looked like five and 10 years ago and how different it looks today. So the next question is, what will it look like five and 10 years from now, and who will lead? That's the big unknown.

One last thought: If Lenovo wants to mimic Apple and Samsung, what brand name will it give its new smartphone? Does ThinkPhone ring any bells? 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

E-Commerce Times columnist Jeff Kagan is a technology industry analyst and consultant who enjoys sharing his colorful perspectives on the changing industry he's been watching for 25 years. Email him at jeff@jeffKAGAN.com.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------  

http://www.ecommercetimes.com/story/When-Customers-Get-the-Shaft-Companies-Are-the-Biggest-Losers-78115.html

http://www.ecommercetimes.com/story/78115.html

ANALYSIS

By Jeff Kagan

E-Commerce Times

05/23/13 5:00 AM PT

Do you ever wonder why some companies flourish and grow while others struggle? Why you love doing business with some but not others? It all has to do with how they interact with customers. Customer care is crucial for long-term success.

My family has been going to the beach every summer for as long as I can remember. Hilton Head Island in South Carolina has become our favorite destination. We've stayed at many places on the island, but there are two big brand name hotels: the Sonesta Resort, formerly the Crown Plaza Hotel; and the Westin. Both are important to the island, and I want both to succeed. However, there was a big difference in the way we were treated at these two places.

Customers Have Long Memories

We visited several different resorts over the years, and the Sonesta became our favorite. Its staff always treated us very well. Whenever we needed anything, they were right there making sure our stay was perfect. The property itself is both gorgeous and peaceful. It recently got a fresh face, making it even better.

The Westin is a different story. Don't get me wrong -- I like Westin. I have stayed in many of the company's properties for business and pleasure over the years. Many of those properties are terrific, but when we stayed at the Westin's Hilton Head resort several years ago, we were very disappointed. Among other things, our room was not cleaned properly, and the staff did not correct the problem, despite our requests for help.

Bottom line, the Westin on Hilton Head may be OK now, but we may never know. We haven't been back. Several years have elapsed since our last stay because of the poor experience.

So who loses? Westin. We have been back to the island many times, but not to the Westin -- and when I'm asked for a recommendation, I always say the Sonesta is our favorite.

Businesses that care and that treat customers right will get repeat business. So why don't they all treat customers right? It's a no-brainer. Yet they don't.

Unhealthy Customer Relations

Like many, I join a health club every few years. I was a member of LA Fitness and was happy until a recent problem came up that was handled poorly from the customer point of view. My son wanted to join, so I signed him up as well. Then he was hired as a fitness counselor there, and he told me his membership would be free as long as he was a counselor. That's great, I thought -- save a few dollars.

Fast-forward several years. My son is not working there any longer; in fact, he canceled his membership and joined another club.

That's fine -- except recently I took a close look at my credit card bill and saw that LA Fitness was still charging me every month for his membership. I asked my son about it and he said he hasn't used the club since he canceled his membership years ago.

So I called LA Fitness to fix the problem and get a refund, but I was told there was no record of the cancellation request. The club would be happy to cancel the membership, but it could not offer me a refund, even though its records verified my son had not been in the club for at least two years. So with the proof in front of them, and in spite of my customer request, LA Fitness still did not do the right thing.

Bottom line -- the club had been charging my credit card every month for years, although my son was not even walking through the door. What it should have done was contact me to bring this to my attention. It didn't -- and when I found out, a call to its customer service department showed me LA Fitness did not care to correct the problem, either. So if the club doesn't care about me, then I don't care to give it my business any longer.

Sure, this cost me several thousand dollars, but who lost in the long term? LA Fitness, of course. I will not only not join again, but also not recommend it any longer. In fact, I just received a "We Want You Back" email. Doesn't sound like the marketing department and the customer care department talk to each other.

Keep It Simple

What about retail? This sector is full of very good and very bad customer service stories as well.

Costco is one of those warehouse clubs like Sam's Club and BJ's. First, let me admit that I have a love/hate relationship with Costco. I hate the idea of having to buy a gigantic box of anything. I hate waiting in long lines to check out. I hate not having bags to carry my stuff home. And I really hate the process of leaving the store, because I have to wait in a long line so an employee can search my cart to make sure I didn't steal something. I always complain to my wife. Why do so many customers put up with this? I must be missing something.

Perhaps it's because Costco does several things right as well. The stores are fun, the prices are good, and its return policy is excellent. Any time you need to return something, you can. Period. There's no 90-day limit. Costco would rather keep you happy -- aside from the proctology exam when you leave the store -- and keep you coming back. It works. Its growth is a direct result of this.

Certain catalog retailers, like LL Bean and Lands End, do a very good job as well. They respect the customer. They make it easy to shop and order. Order what you want and return anything for any reason at any time. Period. They make it easy to shop with them. They take away any impediments to the buying and returning process. These are companies customers love.

Customer Loyalty Pays

Can you see the point I am making with all these examples? The lessons to be learned are clear as day. Companies either makes customers fall in love with them, or they don't. It all depends on the way the company treats its customers.

Companies like Sonesta and LL Bean that do the right thing and treat their customers the right way -- with respect -- win in the long term. Companies like LA Fitness and the Westin on Hilton Head Island lose in customers' eyes.

Customers help spread the word either way -- one way or the other, for better or for worse. So isn't it better to do the right thing, and treat customers with respect, and get long-term benefits from that? Yes, the answer is obvious. Companies that don't -- well, you know who you are, and the ball is in your court.  

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

E-Commerce Times columnist Jeff Kagan is a technology industry analyst and consultant who enjoys sharing his colorful perspectives on the changing industry he's been watching for 25 years. Email him at jeff@jeffKAGAN.com.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------  

http://www.ecommercetimes.com/story/Connecting-With-Key-Influencers-in-the-Industry-Analyst-Community-78052.html

http://www.ecommercetimes.com/story/78052.html

ANALYSIS

By Jeff Kagan

E-Commerce Times

05/16/13 5:00 AM PT

If presenting to the technology industry analyst community is so important, why do most companies do such a poor job?

I have participated in more analyst briefings over the last 25 years than I can remember. Companies all want the same positive result, but they all go about it very differently. Only a very few are well done and get good results. So what is the path to success?

My Pick of the Week is the brand new Nokia Lumia 928 on Verizon and Lumia 925 on T-Mobile. How do these compare to the original Lumia 920 on AT&T?

The Analyst's Model

With the CTIA 2013 wireless show coming next week, this is a good time to consider how companies can get the biggest bang for their buck when dealing with the analyst community.

First, it's important to set some specific goals. Most companies want every analyst to know about them and talk about them in glowing terms. The only problem is few understand how to get that result.

To be successful, a company must turn the entire process around. It must understand each analyst individually. How? Come at it from the analyst's perspective. Every analyst is different. If you line up 10 analysts, you will have 10 different business models, following 10 different areas, and getting their opinions out in 10 different ways.

It's important to understand the analyst's business model. Understand what each analyst does for a living. Some work for larger firms and get paid a salary for the work they provide. Larger firms have different people doing different things. The firm collects fees from companies for a variety of services.

Other analysts are either individual or work for smaller practices. In those cases, the analyst is often chief cook and bottle washer responsible for providing services to clients, disseminating information to the marketplace and collecting fees.

Movers and Shakers

The term "industry analyst" is a general term that suggests many different categories. It's important not only to understand what area each analyst specializes in, but also the way each does business.

Since there are too many analysts in each industry for a company to have a good relationship with each, it's a good idea to break the analyst community into two parts. Companies should appeal to the larger analyst community, while at the same time forming relationships with key analysts in their sector -- those who are best known, regularly quoted, and who frequently write about their industry's competition and trends.

Companies should host an occasional general analyst meeting to reach all analysts. They are often helpful to bring the entire community up to speed with the same information at the same time. After the general briefing, private briefings can be held. They are still part of the larger chaos of an analyst meeting but are a great way to connect.

Separately, it is vital for a company to have excellent communications with the key analysts who follow it on a regular basis -- the analysts who can help or hurt its efforts, since they are regularly quoted by the media, write columns, release statements, publish reports, give speeches and so on.

These are the movers and shakers. They can shape opinion. I have learned this small group is key, because often what the marketplace thinks about a company begins with what these key people think, say and write.

The Meeting Game

To recap, there are three important ways to interact with the analyst community:

1.Host a general meeting for a large group of analysts -- dozens or even hundreds assembled in the same room. Remember, however, everyone looks for different things, so each may be interested only in a particular slice of what you have to say.

2.Conduct individual briefings with analysts flown into the headquarters for a few hours to meet one-on-one with senior executives that cover the areas they follow. Smaller briefings for key analysts often are held at higher-quality spots like Las Vegas or Palm Beach.

Don't waste time. Analysts travel too much and attend too many meetings. So provide meetings of interest and value. Ask whom the analysts would like to meet with and what areas they want to focus on. Make sure they get good value out of the trip. These one-on-one meetings can be most valuable, as long as they are part of a longer-term relationship.

3.Hold briefings at trade shows like the upcoming CTIA 2013 in Las Vegas. Now what I am about to say goes against the groove most companies are in. Most, unfortunately, host meetings as though the analysts are on a conveyor belt -- saying the same thing to one after the other, and not really closing the gap with the analyst.

This is a reflection of the theory that if you throw enough stuff at the wall, something will stick. However, the results are generally a waste of time for the company and the analysts -- and a time-waster is not how any company wants to be perceived.

A Better Way

There is a more respectful way of doing things that typically has a much better result. As an analyst, I have little interest in attending dozens of briefings with strangers. I prefer personal invitations from company executives who really want to meet with me.

I'm happy to meet with those who want to start a relationship leading to my following their companies over the long term. The first meeting should simply be a way to get to know one other. The company learns how the analyst works, and the analyst considers whether to follow the company. After this first meeting, if both want to move to the next step, then a second meeting can be set up to flesh out the details.

However, I receive countless invitations for briefings from public relations people who are strangers to me, who are hired to fill the calendar of their clients, and that's where there interest ends. There is no relationship of any kind with the executive or the company. I see little value there. The real value comes in building long-term relationships.

Note, I did not say the analyst community in general -- the general analyst community is a good starting point. However, a company must make sure it has good quality relationships with the key analysts who follow it.

For one reason or another, analysts' opinions often matter to the marketplace of consumers, business customers, investors and workers, so it's important to be successful dealing with this community at large, as well as with every key analyst in the space.

When a company reaches out to key individual analysts, it will achieve a much higher level of success in reaching its goals -- and isn't that what every company wants from the analyst community in the first place?

Jeff Kagan's Pick of the Week

My Pick of the Week is Nokia's addition of the Lumia 928 on Verizon and the Lumia 925 on T-Mobile. Nokia launched its Lumia family several months ago with the 920 on AT&T.

The Lumia is a great device. Users seem to like it. With the Windows Phone 8 operating system, it is completely different from Apple's iPhone and the many devices running Google's Android OS.

Each of the Lumia models has a few unique features, but essentially it's the same device on different carriers.

I have a Lumia 920 from AT&T, which I have been testing over the last few months. I don't yet have a Lumia 928 or 925. However, it appears the choice will be which carrier you want to use, not which device.

I like this device. It is a third operating system to compete with Google's Android and Apple's iOS, which account for the majority of market share in the industry.

The wireless industry needs more than two competitors. That's why handset manufacturers like Nokia, BlackBerry, Motorola, HTC, Huawei, Sony and others are fighting for the No. 3 slot, behind Samsung and Apple. That's the good news. The bad news is none of them have really broken away from the pack yet.

This Nokia Lumia family of phones is a real winner for many users and is worth a look. Nokia just has to find a way to grow its slice of the pie. 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

E-Commerce Times columnist Jeff Kagan is a technology industry analyst and consultant who enjoys sharing his colorful perspectives on the changing industry he's been watching for 25 years. Email him at jeff@jeffKAGAN.com.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------  

http://www.ecommercetimes.com/story/Tech-Offers-Web-of-Support-for-Stroke-Survivors-77970.html

http://www.ecommercetimes.com/story/77970.html

HEALTH AND MEDICINE

By Jeff Kagan

E-Commerce Times

05/09/13 5:00 AM PT

Every few years, we see breakthroughs in the medical and health community, as well as in the wireless and telecom industry. We are just in the early stages of a technology revolution that will help stroke survivors. Visit the iTunes App Store or Google Play and take a look. Believe it or not, today there are stroke apps. Yes that's right, there's an app for that -- several of them as a matter of fact.

May is National Stroke Awareness month. I like to follow the technology advancements for stroke prevention and treatment -- and the companies making them -- because I have been a stroke survivor for nine years. We don't realize it on a daily basis, but things advance as quickly in the medical and health industries as in wireless and communications. If I had my stroke today rather than nine years ago, there would be much more help at my fingertips.

My stroke occurred in 2004. As advanced as the medical community had become by then, it was very distant from where it is today. Doctors struggled with too many questions and offered me very few answers. They simply didn't know. Plus, they were not counselors, so they weren't able to help me understand my situation. Things are different now.

The wireless and telecom world has changed too. Back then, Apple hadn't come out with the iPhone, and Google hadn't introduced Android. A cellphone was just a cellphone -- and there were a lot of Baby Bells that hadn't yet merged.

The Smartphone Revolution

Unfortunately, strokes happen all the time. Since having mine I have learned of many other survivors among people I already knew. How many do you know? Maybe quite a few. I have learned of many neighbors, friends and business associates affected by strokes -- and recovery is a long-term process, taking years.

Every few years, we see breakthroughs in the medical and health community, as well as in the wireless and telecom industry, Suddenly these two worlds are working together to create new apps and solutions for stroke survivors. Things are getting exciting.

For example, in 2004, the year I had my stroke, the smartphone revolution had not yet begun. BlackBerry, Nokia and Palm were the smartphone leaders. There were no iPhones, and there were no phones running Android. There was no app explosion yet. At that time, there were only a few hundred apps to choose from, and none of them addressed stroke prevention or recovery.

Then things quickly started to change. Apple debuted the iPhone in 2007, and Google unleashed Android shortly after that. The number of apps started to grow, but in the early years they were mostly about games. It would be a few years before anything of medical or health value was created.

Today, smartphones rule the world. More than 50 percent of us have one. There are nearly a million apps in the iTunes App Store and in Google Play. We've grown past the initial stage emphasizing games and are seeing apps with serious value propositions. There is a growing variety of healthcare-related apps, and we are still just in the very early years.

Apps for That

I am currently writing my second book. Stroke Recovery Stories is filled with stories from stroke survivors to offer encouragement to others. So if you have recovered from a stroke or know someone who has, and if you would like to help, I hope you will get in touch with me and contribute your story to this new book.

We are just in the early stages of a technology revolution that will help stroke survivors. Visit the iTunes App Store or Google Play and take a look. Believe it or not, today there are stroke apps. Yes that's right, there's an app for that -- several of them as a matter of fact.

Sorting through all these "stroke" apps is key at this early stage. Listed under "stroke" are stroke recovery apps -- but there are also golfing apps and other unrelated apps with the word "stroke" in their titles or descriptions.

One good app, from the American Heart Association, is Spot a Stroke F.A.S.T.. It is available at the iTunes App Store.

E-Books and More

The e-book craze is new and a big help as well. Amazon's Kindle, Barnes & Noble's Nook and other e-readers make it easy to shop, find what you are looking for, and download and read a book immediately, without leaving home. In the world before e-readers, if we wanted a book immediately, we had to go to bookstore, but they didn't carry a deep selection.

Buying books online is a whole new world. There is a huge selection of existing e-books about strokes, and there are new ones being published all the time.

Walgreens is an example of a drug store stepping in to improve healthcare as well. The shift from retail-only to healthcare consultant is growing rapidly. Before long, when you visit your local drug store, you'll likely find a doctor's office right next to the pharmacy counter.

Smartphones and tablet computers are starting to help doctors and neurologists with stroke assessment. Using technology like Apple's FaceTime for the iPhone, which is like a portable video conference app, a doctor can visit with a patient in rural or remote locations. This improves the chances for early diagnosis and treatment. Doctors even use medical apps to review brain scans of stroke patients.

Ohio State University's Wexner Medical Center is using technology to help stroke survivors walk again -- one more example of the plethora of tools that are suddenly appearing.

Community Support

There are other new ways to bring the stroke community together, like stroke walks in different communities. This is important for a patient's psychological well being -- it lets survivors know they are not alone. Recovering from a stroke can be very isolating and lonely.

When I had my stroke, this community effort didn't exist. It was frightening. My wife and I were alone, and we didn't know what to expect. It remained that way for many painful years.

Today, thanks to all the new technology, education and medical treatments -- and all the community support -- things are different.

We are just beginning to see how the lives of stroke survivors can be improved, and we are still in the very early days of this revolution. Expect more from technology and the community to keep improving the lives of survivors.

I will occasionally write about exciting new ideas and technologies in this area. Remember to send me your encouraging thoughts and stories about your stroke recovery, so I can include them in my new book. Let's help new stroke survivors see that they will eventually get better and stronger. They just have to work at it every day.

Nine years ago, we thought we knew quite a bit about the brain and strokes. However compared with today, we were still in the Stone Age. Today we know much more. Just what will we know tomorrow?  

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

E-Commerce Times columnist Jeff Kagan is a technology industry analyst and consultant who enjoys sharing his colorful perspectives on the changing industry he's been watching for 25 years. Email him at jeff@jeffKAGAN.com.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------  

http://www.ecommercetimes.com/story/Forgetting-Todays-Users-May-Be-BlackBerrys-Folly-77937.html

http://www.ecommercetimes.com/story/77937.html

ANALYSIS

Forgetting Today's Users May Be BlackBerry's Folly

By Jeff Kagan

E-Commerce Times

05/02/13 5:00 AM PT

BlackBerry, formerly Research In Motion, is under a lot of scrutiny as it pursues its comeback strategy. An interesting question recently came up having to do with that effort: Is BlackBerry so busy focusing on growth and the future that it has forgotten about taking care of customer needs in the present? I'll address this both as a technology industry analyst and a long time BlackBerry fan.

Everything about BlackBerry is suddenly very different. The new BB10 is both better and worse than its predecessor. BlackBerry is in transition. However, a transition should not be about becoming something foreign. It should be an evolution of the brand and an update of the technology.

BlackBerry is not my company. I am just an observer and user with opinions and desires like everyone else. BlackBerry can do whatever it wants, of course. However, I do like the company, and I want it to succeed. After all, it is the oldest smartphone brand name in the market.

Sure, today's market looks very different from just a few years ago. Yesterday, BlackBerry led. Today Apple's iPhone and Samsung's Galaxy lead. However we still need other successful competitors in the space.

Let me pose a question: If you see someone you know and like about to be hit by a bus while crossing the street, would you shout and wave your arms and do what you could to prevent the accident? That's what I am doing here for BlackBerry.

Step by Step

What is BlackBerry today? The users that are left are the core BlackBerry customers. They may be core customers because they have phones supplied by their company, but they may have made the choice themselves.

Maybe they like something about BlackBerry -- that the device is simple, for example. Maybe they understand it because they've been long-time users. Maybe they really like its secure email. Maybe they're hooked on one of the other BlackBerry features they can't get elsewhere.

Five years ago, BlackBerry was the strongest brand in the smartphone world. There were loads of customers and websites where addicted BlackBerry users gathered, like Crackberry.com. Then suddenly BlackBerry was pushed aside by other brands.

After years of delay, BlackBerry 10 was finally introduced and the first handset, the Z10, was released. Now the second handset, the Q10, is being released -- it has a physical keypad.

This first effort at renewing the company with BB10 is good, but it is not yet great. Hopefully the Q10 will be successful. I'm getting one shortly.

The problem, as I see it, is simple. Management is totally reinventing the entire BlackBerry experience. While this is good in many ways, it is bad in others. The new BlackBerry should be a transformational device, giving happy users what they want. It should introduce them to many new features along the way.

The MemoPad Mistake

I have been a BlackBerry user for many years. Of course, I carry other phones as well. Think of this as a personality disorder. Yes, I carry too many phones -- an iPhone, several Androids, Nokia with Windows, and more. That's an entirely different story.

Let me give you an example of the problem I see. I have always liked the BlackBerry devices, but there was one feature I learned to use and now actually need. As it turns out, checking Crackberry.com and other BlackBerry sites, it is the same feature many others use and like as well.

It's called "MemoPad," and it syncs with Notes on your computer's Microsoft Outlook software. It let's you keep dozens of notes, and they sync between your computer and wireless handset so you can take them with you. This is a very handy, simple and powerful tool that many users really like.

Many BlackBerry users still use older versions of Outlook software; however, MemoPad always worked -- until BB10, that is. Previously, this feature was always supported, and it was one of many key reasons people liked BlackBerry.

In fact, this feature is so important to so many users that even though Apple introduced the iPhone without this functionality, it later added it, based on user feedback. There is a lesson here somewhere.

Now, even as Apple embraces this MemoPad and Notes feature for the iPhone, BlackBerry is moving away from it. Fortunately this problem can be remedied quickly and easily if BlackBerry knows about it.

Now pull the camera back. The larger question is why didn't BlackBerry executives make sure all the goodies their customers really liked and used remained, alongside all the new features?

I have contacted the company with this question and have received no response on this issue. I have looked for an answer and asked many others as well. I have found no answer. If I am wrong, I hope BlackBerry will do me the courtesy of letting me know. I'll pass the word along to you as well.

Care for Core Customers

So, it seems that BlackBerry is so focused on tomorrow, it is forgetting about today's customers needs.

As a customer, I want the company to succeed. However for it to remain strong, it must understand and take good care of its customer base.

As an analyst, I look at this basic mistake from a big-picture perspective, and I wonder if it is a sign of things to come for a company so many have loved for so long.

We all want BlackBerry to succeed. It can. One year from today, BlackBerry will either be stronger or weaker. It all depends on the choices its executives make. BlackBerry is not the only company dealing with this issue. Others, like Nokia and Motorola, are struggling as well.

BlackBerry must focus on two areas: One, it must take care of existing customers who like existing features like MemoPad; and two, it must look to the future with apps and other technologies that could give it an edge tomorrow.

Currently I have both a brand new BlackBerry Z10 and an older BlackBerry Torch. Want to know which I prefer and use? The older Torch -- for now, at least. I hope that changes, but it's really up to BlackBerry.

Soon I'll have the Q10 to take for a test drive, and I will write about it for you as well. Off the cuff, I would guess the Q10 will be more popular because of the keyboard. After all, BlackBerry users love their keyboards.

E-Commerce Times columnist Jeff Kagan is a technology industry analyst and consultant who enjoys sharing his colorful perspectives on the changing industry he's been watching for 25 years. Email him at jeff@jeffKAGAN.com.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

http://www.ecommercetimes.com/story/CTIAs-Eye-Opening-Competition-77880.html

http://www.ecommercetimes.com/story/77880.html

ANALYSIS

CTIA's Eye-Opening Competition

By Jeff Kagan

E-Commerce Times

04/25/13 5:00 AM PT

I want to thank CTIA for inviting me to be a judge in its annual wireless competition. The winners will be announced at this year's CTIA 2013 starting May 21 in Las Vegas.

I was looking for what's new, earthshaking and transformative, and I was very impressed with many entries. I think you will be as well.

Every few years there is an earthquake in the wireless industry -- something new that redefines and transforms everything. The latest happened six years ago, when the iPhone and Android were created. Now they lead. The entire smartphone sector has rapidly grown since then, and technology has advanced at an accelerated pace.

Sorting through all the entries started me thinking. Perhaps we don't recognize an earthshaking technology when it is first introduced. Perhaps in the early stages, it's just an interesting idea. Great ideas that change the industry take time to develop. Then suddenly they pop up on everyone's radar, and we think they're brand new.

Snowball Effect

When the first iPhone came out, we were excited, but the industry had not changed. Apple still had lots of bugs to work out. There were only a few apps. Wireless Internet speeds were not fast. Remember, the first iPhone was really very similar to RIM's BlackBerry smartphones. Apple gave the concept a twist, but the iPhone didn't change the industry overnight. Neither did Google's Android operating system when it debuted on the T-Mobile G1. It had plenty of bugs.

However, over the next couple of years, everything started to come together for these new and innovative products. The iPhone and Android OS were improved and continued to advance. Android started showing up on a variety of handsets and networks. Apps in the marketplace rose from a few hundred, to hundreds of thousands. Both the iOS platform and Android have more than 800,000 apps available today.

Today the smartphone market looks completely different from six years ago. It is fast-growing and innovative. It affects carriers, handset makers and app makers. However, we didn't think this way about this segment from day one, did we? No, we watched it develop over several years. So when judging CTIA entries, I needed to keep that in mind.

Award categories:

•Enterprise -- products and services, including software and hardware, used to deploy wireless technology in the enterprise;

•Infrastructure -- products and services used in the deployment of a wireless network;

•Mobile Apps -- applications marketed and sold to consumers;

•Mobile Consumer Electronics -- handsets, Bluetooth accessories and other wirelessly enabled electronic devices; and

•Crowd Favorites -- "Online Pick" and "Best in Show."

Vast Reach

Every year that I have attended the CTIA show, I've been overwhelmed with new and innovative technology. Yet from all of this innovation year after year, only a few ideas really catch on and change the industry and our lives.

Think about the current wave of innovation sweeping across the wireless industry. The wireless business is reaching far beyond traditional wireless services. Sure, networks are expanding, handset makers are growing, and the number of apps is increasing, and that's where our brain goes when thinking about the market. However, many other industries -- including automotive, healthcare and retail -- are taking advantage of wireless innovations as well. This is one of the hottest new trends, and it will be all we are talking about in coming years.

Categories in this year's competition include automotive, location-based services, navigation and safe driving. Items include the Chevrolet MyLink; Cobra iRadar ATOM; Telenav; Siri eyes free integration by General Motors; and the Verizon VZ Navigator powered by Telecommunications Systems on Windows Phone 8. Doesn't this remind you of other automotive innovations like the Ford Sync?

Handsets include the new HTC One, LG Sprint 4G, Doro PhoneEasy, Blackberry Z10, Samsung Galaxy S4, Nokia Lumia 920, and Samsung Galaxy Note II.

Wireless is key to areas like security, fraud and privacy; green telecom and smart energy solutions; machine-to-machine communications; sensors; RFID; and NFC. It's integral to mobile commerce, including payments, banking, shopping and much more.

Tomorrow's Promise

Yes, wireless is expanding far beyond traditional smartphones. In the healthcare industry, there are apps that can keep in constant contact with your doctor as you update your readings throughout the day. Walking into a retail store, you are recognized and greeted and sent personalized coupons and offers. Passengers in a car can surf the Web on a dashboard screen or on a screen mounted on the back of a headrest -- and there's much more.

On the network side are companies like AT&T Mobility, Verizon Wireless, Sprint Nextel and T-Mobile. Don't forget all the innovative handset and app makers. Plus I fully expect new handset makers to enter the marketplace, like Lenovo and others. What, you didn't think Apple and Google would be the only non-wireless companies to enter and lead the wireless space, did you?

We are just in the very early stages in this exciting transformation. There is so much innovation all around us. All we really have to do is pick a direction and run. This means there is great opportunity for workers, customers and investors.

The annual CTIA show is always one of the most exciting events of the year in the U.S. wireless industry. Enjoy this year's show. Just keep your eyes open and your mind clear, and imagine what tomorrow will bring. The real opportunities will be hiding in plain sight.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

E-Commerce Times columnist Jeff Kagan is a industry analyst and consultant who enjoys sharing his colorful perspectives on the changing industry he's been watching for 25 years. Email him at jeff@jeffKAGAN.com.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

http://www.ecommercetimes.com/story/Wireless-Fertile-Ground-for-Wheeling-and-Dealing-77820.html

http://www.ecommercetimes.com/story/77820.html

ANALYSIS

Wireless: Fertile Ground for Wheeling and Dealing

By Jeff Kagan

E-Commerce Times

04/18/13 5:00 AM PT

Thanks to countless conversations with reporters, I have developed a crystal clear idea of why Dish Network and SoftBank want to acquire Sprint Nextel. It has less to do with wireless carrier ambitions, and much more to do with the future -- being leaders in a new space that's still largely under the radar.

When wireless took off, it is was all about voice calls. Then the industry realized if it wanted to continue strong growth, it had to be more than just voice. Since the late 1990s, we've seen a constant progression of wireless data speed and functionality. Wireless now supports text, Web, images, video, live television and more.

Change Is in the Wind

Not every carrier and handset maker has seen the same high levels of growth, but the industry in general has -- and the future of wireless looks even better than the past. Sprint Nextel was a rapidly growing company a decade ago. Then it slipped. It took two CEOs and a variety of changes at the corporate level to first see, then fix the problem.

Today Sprint is actually a good quality provider of wireless services, but it hasn't been able to convince the marketplace of that fact. So it continues to struggle. By the way, this same thing happened to it in the 1980s and 90s. It took Sprint forever to get past that problem time. Remember the pin drop commercials?

Look at the last few years. Six years ago, Apple's iPhone and Google's Android didn't even exist. Today the industry circles around them -- and the industry keeps growing, changing and innovating. What will it look like in another five years?

It will be very different. Sure, wireless will continue on it's growth path with smartphones, apps and more, but there are other things in store. Tomorrow is why companies like Dish and SoftBank want to get their hands on Sprint.

Where the Action Is

There are three big growth segments few are thinking about today:

1. Companies like Dish could use networks like Sprint's to deliver video and Internet to customers. That means Dish customers could get a wider array of services wherever they were.

2. There are more smartphone innovations to come. Today, we don't leave our homes without taking three things with us: our smartphone, car keys and wallet. As smartphones develop, they will be in charge of everything in our lives. Going forward, we'll just have to remember one thing when we walk out the door -- our smartphone.

A smartphone can unlock and start up a car. Just think about how you do that today. You carry a key fob in your pocket and simply hit the start button on the dash. Well the same technology that's in the fob can be in your smartphone. It's as easy as that. Plus your smartphone will keep you in touch with your car app to stay up to date so you'll know when it's time for another quart of oil, or an oil change, or changing other fluids and filters. Plus it wirelessly connects with the manufacturer , so you can report problems with your car and be notified of recalls and so on.

In addition, you will store all of your personal and ID information in digital format on your smartphone -- think of an e-DriversLicense, or insurance card and registration -- and have it automatically updated. Same thing with all your photos and membership cards.

3. Other industries need help to go wireless. You may have noticed that both AT&T and Verizon have been running television commercials about helping other industries use wireless and wireline networks and technology to innovate their business models. That's an enormous opportunity for growth in the wireless industry. This is also a great opportunity for Sprint.

Imagine walking into your favorite retail store, and the moment you walk through the doors, your phone beeps and you receive a friendly greeting. As you walk through the aisles, you get personalized offers for special sales.

Imagine that every time you test your blood, your numbers get sent to your doctor so your diabetes can be monitored in real-time. Imagine sitting in the back seat of your parents' car and watching television or surfing the Web on the back of a headrest. All these things and more are real today, and much more is coming. This a sampling of the enormous opportunity we are moving toward.

 We are just in the very early stages of this new wireless revolution -- and these are only three examples of what the future holds in store.

The Race Is On

So, any question as to why Dish Network and SoftBank want to make big moves in this exciting new marketplace? Many more companies will be interested in taking advantage of wireless opportunities going forward as well.

The opportunity is both for today's wireless marketplace and tomorrow's, which is much larger than anyone can imagine. We know all the changes the wireless industry has been through in the last five years with the smartphone revolution. Well, we are not done. The revolution continues. The question now is what changes can we expect going forward? How will things be different in the next five years?

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

E-Commerce Times columnist Jeff Kagan is a industry analyst and consultant who enjoys sharing his colorful perspectives on the changing industry he's been watching for 25 years. Email him at jeff@jeffKAGAN.com.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

http://www.ecommercetimes.com/story/The-Wild-and-Wonderful-Future-of-Wireless-77763.html

http://www.ecommercetimes.com/story/77763.html

ANALYSIS

The Wild and Wonderful Future of Wireless

By Jeff Kagan

E-Commerce Times

04/11/13 5:00 AM PT

Six years ago, lightning struck the wireless industry. Apple launched the iPhone and Google unveiled Android. These two companies rapidly changed the smartphone segment and then the entire industry. These are still the early days in this transformed landscape, and I see no slowdown ahead. Today is much bigger than yesterday, so what will tomorrow look like?

The wireless industry is in the middle of a transformation. That means there are many new opportunities going forward, but there are many new challenges as well. Which ideas, companies and sectors will win is the question.

I have been a wireless and technology industry analyst for more than 25 years. I have followed and worked with many companies as they changed the industry -- and change continues. The annual CTIA conference is coming in May, and the technology and ideas demonstrated will be simply incredible.

The wireless industry looks very different from several years ago. What will it look like several years ahead?

Wireless Today

Even though the industry is growing, some handset makers and networks have succeeded, while others have struggled.

Apple has both the iOS operating system and the iPhone. Google is primarily concerned with the Android operating system. It works with various handset makers like Samsung. I've heard that Apple and Google dominate roughly 90 percent of the mobile OS market so far. Not bad for an idea that's only a few years old.

Then there are numerous companies fighting to lead among handset manufacturers. Who will be No. 3? Two possibilities are past leaders like Nokia, which is partnering with Microsoft on a series of devices, and BlackBerry. Currently, both the Nokia Lumia 920 and the new BlackBerry Z10 are excellent devices. I have used both and like them.

These are very different in design. However, they have not yet broken through to compete successfully with Apple, Google and Samsung and take big market share -- not yet, anyway.

Other companies also want to break into a leadership position with handsets, like Sony with its Xperia, Huawei, HTC, ZTE, LG and others.

On the carrier side, AT&T Mobility and Verizon Wireless are the strongest national networks in the U.S. They are also busy expanding into new markets, helping other industries reinvent themselves. As they grow, they are helping other industries grow through wireless as well.

Sprint Nextel is once again becoming a good carrier. It has put up a valiant fight over recent years to regain market share, but it is still struggling for growth. Now it wants to merge with Softbank. If this deal is approved, it may indeed help Sprint, but with new ownership, it may also become a very different competitor. Stay tuned.

T-Mobile has been struggling for growth for years. It is trying to reinvent itself with a new CEO at the helm. It has introduced innovative new billing plans and is now selling the iPhone. It is expected to close a merger deal with MetroPCS soon.

Let's hope it can turn things around, because the industry needs large, strong, national competitors. Its performance has been disappointing in recent years. Are things getting ready to change?

C Spire Wireless is a strong regional wireless carrier with high speeds, popular phones like the iPhone, and very attractive pricing, which customers love.

U.S. Cellular is currently struggling. It is a good company in a weakened position. The question is will it get back on track in 2013?

On the prepaid side, companies like Tracfone have a strong wireless business but compete for a different segment of the marketplace and do it differently.

As you can see, wireless is winning and growing, but that's not true for every competitor. Remember, however, these companies can change position over the next few years. There have already been many changes over the last few years and I expect that to continue.

So that's where we are today. What about tomorrow? What will change?

Wireless Tomorrow

This is the exciting part of what I do. I get to talk with and follow the senior executives of the carriers and gain a pretty good understanding of the direction of companies and the industry in general.

I have talked with quite a few executives for various wireless networks, handset makers and app makers -- as well as people from other industries, like automotive, healthcare and more -- who are using wireless to reinvent the way they do business.

Today there are three things we don't leave the house without: our wallet, our keys and our smartphone. Tomorrow we will just have to take the smartphone. That's right, it will act as our wallet, storing credit card information, driver's license, photos and the like.

As for our keys, the automotive industry has already given us the ability to have a FOB in our pocket and a push button on the dash to start, so why not just have that technology in our smartphone? It's coming.

Leaders in the smartphone sector are changing. It's not just about the technology any longer. It's also about show business. It's about marketing, advertising and public relations. It should be interesting to watch things develop.

One recent example: A few weeks ago, Samsung introduced its Galaxy 4 at Radio City Music Hall in New York City in what may have been the largest, show-biz type introductory event of all time for the wireless industry. This event raised Samsung in the mind of the marketplace.

That's good -- but how will it top that show next time? How will other companies compete? The bar is continually being raised. How do we top that?!

Another example is Facebook, which -- like the Apple of six years ago -- is not a wireless company. Yet it wants to reinvent the wireless business as well. It recently announced Facebook Home, attracting the kind of media attention that was unheard of a few short years ago. Check Google for how many stories were written. You'll be amazed.

Like Apple, Facebook could indeed change the industry in new and uncertain ways. Be on the lookout for new opportunities.

Facebook is using wireless launchers to change the marketplace and grow its future. If successful, this will open the door to many other companies doing the same thing. This is a brand new sector in wireless -- just like smartphones were a half dozen years ago.

I expect many other companies to jump into this space going forward. This goes far beyond this one company and this one launcher -- even beyond more launchers from more companies.

Some customers will like Facebook Home, but others may like it just once in a while. Some users might like several different launcher home screens from different companies.

That means as a next step we have to come up with a way to manage multiple launchers or customized home screens. Who will develop that? Plus, think about developing your own personalized launcher. There will be lots of new competitors in this new segment.

There are other industries that want to use wireless to get a competitive advantage in the marketplace. All it takes is one established company to come up with an idea. After a short while, competitors will do the same thing -- until all competitors have to offer it just to stay in business.

Then pull the camera back as industry after industry will start to use the wireless industry to update the business practices. Walk into a retail store, and technology will greet you and offer you personalized coupons based on past visits.

Healthcare also is being transformed. You can test your diabetes blood sugar numbers and send the results directly to your doctor for ongoing management, skipping a doctor's appointment, thank you, yet getting better care.

New smartphone apps developed at Ohio State University's Wexner Medical Center are helping stroke survivors walk again. Imagine what else the healthcare industry has in store.

The same thing is happening in the automotive industry. Starting with companies like Lexus, Cadillac and Mercedes Benz, then Ford and now Chevrolet, this technology is new and exciting and will change our lives. The innovation wheel is just starting in industry after industry.

This is an opportunity for every industry and also a big-time opportunity for the wireless industry, which will be at the center of this new universe with handsets, apps and networks.

That's why networks like AT&T Mobility and Verizon Wireless are plowing the road in this area. Helping every other industry is a huge growth opportunity for the wireless industry.

The big challenge today is bridging the gap -- getting wireless executives and other industry executives to be able to communicate and understand each other so they can make these dreams come true. This is harder than you can imagine.

So today we are surrounded by plenty of challenges as well as opportunities. Expect new technologies that we haven't even thought of yet as well.

Wireless will continue to grow, delivering new and innovative services to customers, and working with other industries. Some companies will win and others will struggle, but wireless in general will grow and remain healthy.

I look forward to learning and writing about the innovators and the companies taking leadership roles going forward. What ideas and technologies will emerge tomorrow? That's an exciting question. There will be challenges and opportunities. The race is on whether you are a customer, investor or worker -- so enjoy.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

E-Commerce Times columnist Jeff Kagan is a industry analyst and consultant who enjoys sharing his colorful perspectives on the changing industry he's been watching for 25 years. Email him at jeff@jeffKAGAN.com.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

http://www.ecommercetimes.com/story/Its-Time-for-Aereo-to-Soar-77700.html

http://www.ecommercetimes.com/story/77700.html

ANALYSIS

It's Time for Aereo to Soar

By Jeff Kagan

E-Commerce Times

04/04/13 5:00 AM PT

A year ago, Aereo hit the market with one hot idea: a reinvention of the pay television business. Chairman Barry Diller is the familiar name that lends this company credibility. However, it has been a slow year for Aereo's growth. Its plans were thwarted by stumbling blocks. However, many of them may now be cleared away, thanks to a court ruling earlier this week. If so, what's next for Aereo?

Aereo streams television over the Internet for a fee -- so far only in the New York City region. Its expected rapid rollout has not happened over the past year. Why?

One reason is that Aereo was being sued by various broadcasters. However, the decision handed down this week from the Second Circuit Court of Appeals looks good for Aereo. The ruling allows it to partner with pay-TV providers. That means companies suing Aereo, like Fox, CBS, NBC and 14 other broadcasters, have to decide whether to take a different route to carry on their fight. Stay tuned.

If Aereo is indeed in the clear, it wants to expand, and it looks as though it is considering partnerships with cable, satellite or telephone company IPTV. There are quite a few options, as you can imagine. What will come from all of this activity?

Aereo CEO Chet Kanojia said Monday's ruling sends a powerful message that consumer access to free-to-air broadcast television is still meaningful. So what's next? No partnership agreements have been signed yet because of legal uncertainty. Could that be behind Aereo now? Could everything now start to change? Perhaps.

Aereo has been talking with several competitors lately, exploring partnerships with major pay-TV distributors and Internet service providers like AT&T and Dish Network.

A year ago Chairman Barry Diller said Aereo could expand to 100 cities within the next year. It missed that one by a long shot. Now Aereo plans to reach 22 markets in 2013. Will that actually happen? Is it getting ready to blaze a trail of growth?

It's hard to know what to expect from this startup. On one hand, without Barry Diller, this would be just another one-in-a- million shot. On the other hand, having name recognition to help the company rise above the noise could be the single point of difference to help it succeed.

What will the future bring for Aereo? The good news is Aereo is still a startup, and it's common for things to get in the way of a rapid rollout. The only question is, are these things insurmountable or are they just stumbling blocks?

I like the idea of Aereo. I want it to succeed. In fact, I want others to succeed as well. I believe the entire pay-TV industry would benefit from new competitors. Shaking things up will help reduce costs and raise innovation.

Think of Aereo like a cable television company that delivers signal over the Web -- very innovative. This is what companies in this space are trying to expand into. Fortunately, there are plenty of companies that could make a good partner, such as AT&T, Verizon, Dish, DirectTV, Comcast, Time Warner and Cox. Countless others, including Amazon and Netflix, could be interested as well.

So, is Aereo a standalone brand or could it be part of a larger brand? What direction will it eventually head?

Let's hope this legal stuff is now out of the way for Aereo. That will clear the decks and we can see if it will fly. Aereo is a very innovative idea, and that is worth cheering. Barry Diller is the kind of name that can help raise this company from the noise of countless other competitors trying to find their way to the top and break out. This is a good idea, and Aereo could make a good partner to other service providers.

There are many reasons Aereo can and should make it. Don't know yet if it will, but this is an interesting story to follow. We'll just have to keep our eyes on Aereo and hope for the best.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

E-Commerce Times columnist Jeff Kagan is a industry analyst and consultant who enjoys sharing his colorful perspectives on the changing industry he's been watching for 25 years. Email him at jeff@jeffKAGAN.com.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

http://www.ecommercetimes.com/story/BlackBerry-Z10-All-Sizzle-No-Steak-77639.html

http://www.ecommercetimes.com/story/77639.html

OPINION

BlackBerry Z10: All Sizzle, No Steak

By Jeff Kagan

E-Commerce Times

03/28/13 5:00 AM PT

When the BlackBerry Z10 was first in my hands, I was prepared to write a glowing review of the new device and operating system. I like BlackBerry. I thought I was going to be able to write how it was a real competitor to the Apple iPhone and Samsung Galaxy. I was hoping to be able to say BlackBerry was back. Unfortunately, I can't -- not yet. The new Z10 is better in some ways and worse in others.

I've only had this device for a couple of weeks, so I don't yet know all it can do, but here are my first impressions.

When you upgrade to a new version of the iPhone or your favorite Android device, there is familiarity. It's new, but not all new. It's comfortable. Only when you move to a completely different handset do you have to relearn the entire operating system. There is an uncertainty about how to make it work and how to find all the new features.

BlackBerry is starting life all over again with new handsets, functionality and a brand new operating system, BlackBerry 10. This is more complicated to understand than just upgrading your handset to the next new version -- especially when things don't work right. My BlackBerry Z10 froze from time to time, and I could do nothing but wait until it decided to work again.

I like to talk about the steak and the sizzle. This is how a company should think to be successful. The old BlackBerry was the steak, but had no sizzle. That was the reason it quickly fell behind. This remake has the sizzle but not the steak. Without both, success is not possible. BlackBerry can recover from this though.

The big question is, will this change be enough to give customers what they want and save the company? These first couple of weeks of use show me that this new BlackBerry, the way it is today, makes that uncertain for the long term.

The short term should be good for the company, though, as current BlackBerry users, starving for something new, will switch out their existing handsets for one of the new BlackBerry 10 models over the coming year. What's next? Will it win them over? Will they stay? Does BlackBerry 10 have the long legs it needs for long-term success?

Based on the BB10 and Z10 technology as they are today, I would say that for most users, the answer is no. However, that could change. BlackBerry could update both and have a great, competitive handset over the next year or two.

Remember, neither the iPhone nor any of the Android phones were great when they burst onto the scene. They won on innovation. Over the years, they improved, caught the flow, and started to really succeed. Now they are cruising right along and are the market dominators.

The same thing could happen with BlackBerry. Its new OS could have a weak start, then make corrections and updates and really catch on over the next year. Whether it will is the question. Can't say -- we'll just have to wait and see what they do next.

The big problem is the marketplace has been waiting so long already, and expectations were very high. Still, we can wait and hope the new BlackBerry phones can take the same improvement path as the early iPhone and Android handsets.

BlackBerry can be very successful with a strong and growing share, even starting as low as 5 percent of the market. It doesn't have to hit it out of the park, which of course is what we were all expecting.

The Z10 is better than previous versions of BlackBerry in several ways and worse in others. That will attract many old-time users to upgrade. However, many others may find staying with the older technology is still better for them. The truth is, as new and advanced as the new BlackBerry 10 is, the older version is still better in several ways for many users. It all depends on what your needs are.

The old BlackBerry had few crashes and freezes. The newer has many more. This is something that hopefully can be corrected with updates. The old BlackBerry lets users sync with Outlook and share information like Memos and Notes. The new BlackBerry does not -- or I haven't found it yet. The new BlackBerry has voice recognition, which is a plus, but it does not do as much -- or do it as easily -- as an iPhone or a top Android phone.

There are many interesting new features and apps if you need them. However, compared to the competition, the number of available apps is relatively small, and that is one key indicator of success.

The Web browser is better but still disappointing. It should sync the Favorites from your computer browser like the iPhone does -- but it doesn't, so you must create your own new favorites file. Aside from that, the browser works better than the previous version in many ways.

There is plenty this device does well. However, with limited apps and functionality -- at this stage -- the question is will it be successful? Everyone interested will ask this question: Is BlackBerry worth it? The cost is roughly the same, but the features and functionality are not yet up to the same level as the top competitors.

So BlackBerry, if your goal is to be a strong No. 3, keep improving and you may get there -- but you are not there yet. You have heavy-duty competitors who aren't sitting back and handing victory to you.

Make sure you have both the sizzle and the steak. The race is not over. This is still the magical time when good operating systems and handsets can carve out their own niches. Don't be fooled into thinking your new technology is good enough. It's not today, but it can be. There is an incredible opportunity if you can crack the code. The market does want you to succeed -- don't let us down.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

E-Commerce Times columnist Jeff Kagan is a industry analyst and consultant who enjoys sharing his colorful perspectives on the changing industry he's been watching for 25 years. Email him at jeff@jeffKAGAN.com.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

http://www.ecommercetimes.com/story/Samsungs-Galaxy-S4-Dims-Apples-Glow-77591.html

http://www.ecommercetimes.com/story/77591.html

ANALYSIS

Samsung's Galaxy S4 Dims Apple's Glow

By Jeff Kagan

E-Commerce Times

03/21/13 5:00 AM PT

There are big changes afoot in the wireless industry. A year ago Apple was riding high. Today, it is responding to Samsung's new device with explanatory emails. That's an amazing change for Apple. Has its position veered from offensive to defensive? Apple always ignored other companies. Now it is firing off emails and making excuses.

Samsung's Galaxy S4 Dims Apple's Glow Talk about attracting attention. As I write this, there are more than a thousand recent news stories and opinion pieces on the Google News site about the brand new Samsung Galaxy S4. That's an incredible win for a company that a few short years ago wasn't well known in the wireless business. Since Samsung is successfully transforming how the world thinks about it as a smartphone maker, what can we expect going forward?

The Samsung Galaxy S4

If I'm reading the cards correctly, we can expect quite a bit. First, let's pull the camera back and take a look at Samsung from a longer-term historical perspective. Ten years ago, it was not a strong brand name in the wireless space at all, but it had a goal.

A few years ago -- before the great smartphone rush -- I met several high-level Samsung senior executives at a small Sprint Nextel event in Las Vegas. At that time, Samsung was building its brand in the space, but it still was struggling for attention.

During the last year or so, Samsung really seems to have hit its stride with the Galaxy S devices. Partnering with Google and using its Android operating system in wireless phones, Samsung has taken the lead in the space, far outpacing other handset makers. Samsung is climbing the growth side of the wave I often discuss.

Last week, at its big event at Radio City Music Hall in New York City, Samsung blew the roof off. It has become the leader on the Android side, competing directly with Apple. In fact, Samsung has Apple in its sights. Samsung is the No. 1 smartphone manufacturer in the world, and it wants to become the No. 1, best-known brand in the U.S. market as well.

This is a threat to Apple, but what can we really expect?

Market in Motion

If you read the stories, you will find plenty who love Samsung and the new Galaxy S4. Many think it is the iPhone killer. However, there are just as many who think it's just another device -- no big deal. It's just another Android phone, and it will have no effect on the iPhone. The truth may be somewhere in between.

It's easy to offer an opinion -- everyone has one. However, they are mostly based on emotion -- individual likes or dislikes. Opinions by themselves really have little effect on who will win or lose in the marketplace.

So what's the answer? Well, there are plenty who like the Samsung Galaxy S4. Then again, there are also plenty who prefer the Apple iPhone. There are others who are drawn to the Nokia Lumia powered by Microsoft Windows Phone, or the new BlackBerry Z10, or any of a great number of devices from Huawei, ZTE, Sony, Motorola, HTC, LG and more.

Thinking about all these options, we can smile because yes, it appears we have the beginnings of a growing and apparently very healthy and changing market. That is very good news -- so far, at least.

The companies we follow are changing as well. Yesterday we compared the two platform heavy hitters, Apple's iOS vs. Google's Android. However, while Apple has built an ecosystem that includes both an operating system and a line of handsets, Google's smartphone presence comes primarily through its Android OS, which is installed on many different handsets. Google's own branded smartphones have not really clicked yet, but that's another story.

When thinking about the leaders in this space, we have to decide whether we are talking about the operating systems or the handsets. The leading operating systems are Google's Android and Apple's iOS. The leading handset manufacturers are Apple and Samsung.

Today, Samsung is riding its rapid growth wave on handsets, while Apple may be cresting -- for now. This is a rapidly changing marketplace, so the leaders may shuffle from time to time.

Apple on the Defensive

In the mobile device market, Apple has never had to counterpunch before. Suddenly things are changing. Suddenly Apple is acting like the underdog -- very un-Apple-like. It no longer looks like the formidable leader of a year ago. It looks like it has taken a few punches and is trying to catch its breath. Samsung looks like it is gaining ground.

However, don't let all these theatrics fool you. The fight is not over. Apple will continue to do strong business, even though its stock price is in the toilet right now, because its customers love the company. It can recover, of course. The question is, will it? These waves often play out over several years.

Pulling the camera back and looking at the industry in general, it's clear that consumers want multiple choices. Some want one kind of device, while others want another. Many users like a smaller device and appreciate the entire Apple approach. Others like a larger screen and are more in tune with Samsung's approach. There are countless others who like the other competitive offerings as well.

That's the point. That's what we call the beginning of a healthy marketplace and choice. We want multiple players. We want choice. That will keep innovation high, prices low, and both customers and investors happy. Don't hope that one wins and the others lose -- hope they all win. That is good for everyone.

In the meantime, expect the battles between Apple and Google, and Apple and Samsung to continue. Keep your eyes open for two things later this year: One, watch what Apple does next; two, look for some surprises from smaller competitors. 2013 should be a very interesting year.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

E-Commerce Times columnist Jeff Kagan is a industry analyst and consultant who enjoys sharing his colorful perspectives on the changing industry he's been watching for 25 years. Email him at jeff@jeffKAGAN.com.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

http://www.ecommercetimes.com/story/Whats-Eating-Microsoft-77529.html

http://www.ecommercetimes.com/story/77529.html

ANALYSIS

What's Eating Microsoft?

By Jeff Kagan

E-Commerce Times

03/14/13 5:00 AM PT

Microsoft was once rapidly growing like Google and Apple. Then it changed. It became a very large, but very slow growing company. These days it seems stuck, struggling to break into other businesses. By the way, the same thing is starting at Apple too.

The growth wave Microsoft rode crested years ago, but it hasn't been able to catch the next wave. It is still successful, just not rapidly growing in new sectors. Why? What should it do?

My Pick of the Week is LightSquared. Is it coming back?

Stability vs. Innovation

CEO Steve Ballmer has been with Microsoft, along with Bill Gates, since the beginning. He is still excited and visionary. However, the company simply no longer connects with today's customers for new products and services. There's a reason for that.

There are two parts to Microsoft. One is focused on the Windows operating systems and software like Office. The other is the innovative part, trying to become successful in other businesses, like wireless.

If you had asked me a year ago, I would have said Microsoft's software side was strong while its innovation side was not. However, today I have to say both are missing the mark. Microsoft seems to have lost its ability to connect with users on both existing and new products.

The reason is obvious to me, from both my analyst and customer perspectives. Microsoft has been trying to succeed in wireless for a decade, without much success. Recently it partnered with Nokia on Lumia. It is getting better -- however, the marketplace is also continuing to move ahead. That's why it decided to completely transform its operations and blend its operating systems, software and devices.

This is the same successful path Apple has taken over the years. The general idea makes a lot of sense, but the problem is it does not work for Microsoft. Microsoft is not Apple. Microsoft's customers are not Apple customers.

The Apple brand has two meanings. One is for customers who buy and use their software and devices separately. The other is for customers who buy separate pieces and want them to sync and work together. Apple has both sides taken care of, so no one is cut out. Apple delights customers.

When Apple updates its software, it doesn't radically reinvent it, the way Microsoft does. That is another important key.

Microsoft sees Apple's success and is trying to imitate it. Fine. However, it is changing too much, too quickly, and not giving customers a chance to catch their breath. Customers don't have an escape hatch.

A segment of the Microsoft customer base likes innovative change. However, a larger segment takes longer to adapt to it, and those folks are being rudely ignored. Microsoft does not care about making its customers feel comfortable. That is another key problem.

Microsoft sees the threat of a changing industry and thinks it needs to completely reinvent itself, all at once. That's another problem. It should take a longer time to give customers the chance to choose this change. Don't make it a single event -- like it or not.

Microsoft has always been that way. It always directed. It did not care about the customer. That is another problem. It always was a problem, but since there was no real alternative other than Apple, Microsoft didn't suffer. That is changing now. There are other choices, and those alternatives are increasing.

A Different Kind of Change

Microsoft must change the way it interacts with the industry or it will continue to lose. The idea of an innovative new product sounds perfect -- however, the changes are too great for many to adapt quickly. That's the problem. Patience is an attribute that Microsoft has never had.

Sure, some users like new ideas and want change. Some want to use multiple devices and have them all work together and want an entirely new Windows experience.

However, the majority of customers are not there yet, and their needs are being ignored. Those customers would prefer not to have to make such a dramatic change. They don't want to be forced to spend so much time and energy learning a new software program.

I don't think Microsoft gets it. It doesn't think from the perspective of the customer -- how much time and aggravation is involved in learning a new operating system. Microsoft doesn't look at this from the customer perspective -- only from the investor perspective. That's another problem.

This is a basic flaw in Microsoft's thinking. It has always been its problem. Rather than just tweaking and improving the software, it totally reinvents it every few years. This requires all of its customers to invest substantial time and energy, simply to learn how the new software works. Customers are busy. They are actually unhappy with Microsoft for this very reason.

I, along with millions of others, have been a Microsoft customer for decades. However, I don't know if that will continue if I am forced to make such dramatic changes. All of a sudden there are viable options, and that is the problem for Microsoft.

Microsoft should give satisfied customers the ability to keep their existing software and operating systems like XP and Office, and simply pay a small, annual fee to keep the version current and updated. That would keep everyone happy -- the customers and Microsoft's investors.

That would be innovative and very successful. Why has it never thought of this before? The reason is it wants to keep growing. It wants to force all its customers to buy more software.

Customers Crave Choice

Microsoft needs to change its thinking from solely an investment perspective, to a customer and user perspective. If not, it will suffer.

That's the big problem for Microsoft going forward. There are two different customer groups: One wants innovation -- radical change; the other does not. Only one is being served, and that's why the majority of Microsoft customers feel abused.

Abusing the customer base will no longer work, as customers have more choice. The cloud is changing everything. Google and Apple and others will continue to grow and eat away at Microsoft unless it begins to understand the problem and change its thinking. It's that simple.

So far, Microsoft is trying to force its entire customer base to jump through hoops, like it did 20 years ago. That will hurt the company going forward -- both its Windows and Office divisions and its mobile and tablet operations.

Innovation is great. However, don't force your customers to innovate on your time frame. Let them do it on their time frame. Make your customers love you. Don't let them feel neglected and abused. That is the only way to succeed in a changing marketplace. Microsoft, you are no longer the only choice in town. The sooner you realize that the better off you will be.

My Pick of the Week is LightSquared. Is it coming back? Maybe it is.

We may be getting ready to see the rebirth of LightSquared -- its second attempt. Remember its rise and fall a year or so ago? LightSquared was supposed to be a solution for the wireless data spectrum shortage looming over the smartphone industry.

It was the brainchild of hedge fund magnate Phil Falcone, and it sounded like a solution to the growing wireless problem. Then came the interference with the GPS industry, causing it to crumble.

Many thought it was dead and gone. It lost its CEO and CMO. However, word is it is still around and ready to jump back into the marketplace.

We may hear more about LightSquared in the next few weeks. Things are different this time. It is partnered with another company and a university. I wonder if it will be as interesting as before? Either way, the industry still needs a solution to the growing capacity problem.

We'll see. Stay tuned.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

E-Commerce Times columnist Jeff Kagan is a industry analyst and consultant who enjoys sharing his colorful perspectives on the changing industry he's been watching for 25 years. Email him at jeff@jeffKAGAN.com.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

http://www.ecommercetimes.com/story/The-Tooth-and-Nails-Scrap-for-the-No-3-Smartphone-Spot-77467.html

http://www.ecommercetimes.com/story/77467.html

ANALYSIS

The Tooth-and-Nails Scrap for the No. 3 Smartphone Spot

By Jeff Kagan

E-Commerce Times

03/07/13 5:00 AM PT

Smartphones are taking over the global mobile device market, with Samsung and Apple elbowing each other for the top spot. Their competition is far behind, but that doesn't mean the fight for the No. 3 position won't be fierce. In fact, that may spur some of the most interesting developments, with manufacturers innovating to draw consumers to their brands.

Until about six years ago, the wireless world was pretty predictable. BlackBerry and Nokia were the leaders, and everything was growing and stable. Then the iPhone earthquake changed everything. Android soon followed, creating more disruption. Today the global handset leaders are Samsung and Apple.

However, the big story in 2013 is who will be No. 3. The competition will be intense.

Nokia vs. BlackBerry

BlackBerry and Nokia, the leaders a few short years ago, are gearing up for battle to become No. 3. BlackBerry is rolling out its brand new BB10 devices, like the Z10, in the next couple of weeks. At the same time, Nokia is pushing its Lumia phones -- which run Microsoft's Windows Phone OS -- and it looks to be a worthy opponent.

AT&T Mobility gave me a Nokia Lumia 920 to use, and the operating system is completely different from any other OS on the market. It's very good -- but very different. Expect a learning curve, but once you get past that you may love it. There are many valuable apps loaded up from the start.

The new BlackBerry sounds innovative as well. I'll have one in the next week or so and be able to compare. I'll be looking at how easy it is to use, what's new -- and what's missing.

Plenty of Contenders

Don't think the battle is just between BlackBerry and Nokia, though. Sony is re-entering the smartphone handset space and intends to win the No. 3 spot. It may have been asleep at the switch for the last few years, but it's back. Now let's see if the marketplace will recognize it once again. Its strategy to win customers in different countries with different features sounds promising.

Sony will compete against Huawei Technology and ZTE, which also have their eyes on No. 3 -- and there's more. Motorola, HTC, LG and others could also make a play.

That's why I say 2013 will be the year of the battle for No. 3. It will be a wild and wacky world with marketing, advertising and public relations. New devices from many of these key players will be introduced in the next few weeks and months.

Comeback Kids

I think BlackBerry, Nokia and Sony will have a relatively good year, at least compared with the last few. There are many existing customers who want something new. Who will win in the long term is the question. What will the marketplace look like over the next few years? The long term may be very different from the first year -- it always is.

The industry changes quickly. Fifteen years ago, the wireless business was analog voice. Ten years ago, it was digital, and was just about voice, text and email. Five years ago, Apple's iPhone hit the market and Google then launched its Android OS. A number of manufacturers offer handsets running Android, but Samsung leads the pack. Today Samsung and Apple are the world's No. 1 and 2 smartphone manufacturers.

What about the next few years? We are just in the very early innings of this new smartphone game. The wireless and smartphone industry is one of the most exciting business sectors on Earth today. It's important to realize, however, that not every company is doing well. Sure, Samsung and Apple are doing strong business on the handset side, globally and in the U.S.

Rough and Ready

AT&T Mobility and Verizon Wireless are the dominant U.S. carriers -- but many other companies are struggling.

I believe 2013 will be very interesting and re-set the leadership scoreboard. A quick look at the Consumer Electronics Show, as well as wireless shows like MWC and CTIA, makes that very clear. There is a wide assortment of phone makers, networks, app developers and more -- all competing for attention, market share and success. Only a few will make the top of the list.

So the question is, which company will become No. 3 in 2013? This is going to be a loud and activity-filled year. The market needs a larger selection of operating systems -- people want choices. 2013 will be all about choice.

As of today, I think Samsung and Apple will hold onto the No. 1 and 2 spots. The battle for No. 3 is where the action will be this year. So who will win? And what will the marketplace look like in another five years? Interesting questions. No one knows yet. The industry can change on a dime. So -- ready, set, let the games begin.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

E-Commerce Times columnist Jeff Kagan is a industry analyst and consultant who enjoys sharing his colorful perspectives on the changing industry he's been watching for 25 years. Email him at jeff@jeffKAGAN.com.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

http://www.ecommercetimes.com/story/GM-Switches-Partners-for-OnStars-Next-Big-Dance-77408.html

http://www.ecommercetimes.com/story/77408.html

ANALYSIS

GM Switches Partners for OnStar's Next Big Dance

By Jeff Kagan

E-Commerce Times

02/28/13 5:00 AM PT

GM wants to reinvigorate OnStar, and it chose AT&T Mobility to make that happen. I have a feeling we are going to see OnStar back on the front page once again with some very interesting and compelling ideas. It will be expanding beyond its original emergency road service and security focus to bring a new world of infotainment to travelers.

Several years ago, General Motors introduced a groundbreaking service called "OnStar," a wireless technology designed to keep drivers safer on the road. Since the 1990s, GM has used the Verizon Wireless network to link cars with OnStar.

However, it announced this week at the Mobile World Congress in Barcelona that it's switching to AT&T Mobility. This is pretty big news -- and what we can expect going forward may come as a surprise.

This switch is not good news for Verizon Wireless, but it is very good news for AT&T Mobility. It reminds me of the beginning of the iPhone wave six years ago. When Apple decided to get into the wireless business, it approached Verizon Wireless, but the carrier said no. AT&T Mobility said yes, and the rest is history.

OnStar started as a way to keep a helpful eye on drivers. It started with providing emergency road and antitheft services, directions and other information. Now OnStar wants to rapidly expand. Users will be able to purchase different levels of service -- from basic protection to navigation, games, movies, television shows, music, books, newspapers, the Internet and much more.

Fortunately, drivers will not have access to all these goodies, so they can keep their eyes on the road. These features will be for passengers and kids, of course. When parked, drivers can enjoy them as well.

More Innovation to Come

OnStar was an innovative idea before Apple and Google started the smartphone revolution. During the last few years, however, consumers have gotten used to holding a great many innovations in their hands, and OnStar has faded into the background a bit.

Many users wonder why they need OnStar with the smartphone world clipped to their belt. True, OnStar is not for everyone. However, as laws governing motorists' use of cellphones change, the need for a service like OnStar is only growing.

Distraction is one key problem when a driver uses a phone. That's why automakers like GM are working to give customers the connectivity they want while reducing distraction. Ford Sync, Toyota Entune and Lexus Enform are similar systems.

I think we will see quite a bit of OnStar innovation going forward using the AT&T networks. When you marry the wireless industry, smartphones and 4G data speeds with OnStar, that generates quite a bit of excitement.

That's Infotainment!

OnStar will likely expand its offerings in the direction of infotainment, according to Glenn Lurie, who runs this part of the business for AT&T Mobility. That means streaming audio and video, television and movies, Web access and more.

It will also let your kids log onto an in-car WiFi network to use their smartphones and gaming devices. Oh yeah, that's in addition to navigation and emergency services. Let's see, will it also pour me a fresh cup of Starbucks?

This is the direction that AT&T Mobility is heading, according to CEO Ralph de la Vega: helping other companies and other industries reinvent themselves and take advantage of the new wireless world, which is one giant opportunity for creative thinkers.

There will be many new services coming from OnStar, and if you pull the camera back from the carriers themselves, things are going to get pretty exciting. Buckle up! Here we go.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

E-Commerce Times columnist Jeff Kagan is a industry analyst and consultant who enjoys sharing his colorful perspectives on the changing industry he's been watching for 25 years. Email him at jeff@jeffKAGAN.com.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

http://www.ecommercetimes.com/story/Elevating-Customer-Service-to-the-Next-Level-77360.html

http://www.ecommercetimes.com/story/77360.html

ANALYSIS

Elevating Customer Service to the Next Level

By Jeff Kagan

E-Commerce Times

02/21/13 5:00 AM PT

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

E-Commerce Times columnist Jeff Kagan is a industry analyst and consultant who enjoys sharing his colorful perspectives on the changing industry he's been watching for 25 years. Email him at jeff@jeffKAGAN.com.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

http://www.ecommercetimes.com/story/BlackBerrys-Do-or-Die-Marketing-Challenge-77308.html

http://www.ecommercetimes.com/story/77308.html

ANALYSIS

BlackBerry's Do-or-Die Marketing Challenge

By Jeff Kagan

E-Commerce Times

02/14/13 5:00 AM PT

Frank Boulben is the new chief marketing officer at BlackBerry and he has his hands full. Did you ever stand in front of a mountain of work and wonder how to get started? Marketing was one of several key weaknesses before RIM became BlackBerry. Can Boulben refresh, reinvigorate and save the smartphone maker? No one yet knows; however, marketing is key -- and Boulben is now center stage.

The question is simple: Will the new BlackBerry 10 succeed or fail? No one knows yet, but the initial devices are being rolled out. There will be many BlackBerry 10 devices rolled out this year, and they will continually be updated. Marketing is the next key step in this process.

Major markets like the U.S. have to wait till sometime in March. This timing was handled poorly. Forcing the customers to wait that long was a mistake. The excitement created during the launch event will have cooled by then.

OK, it's finally time to throw BlackBerry in the water and see if it can swim. These new BlackBerry devices have both strengths and weaknesses compared to competitors. They are not perfect, but then again neither are Apple and Google. All competitors have different strengths and weaknesses.

You may ask, so if the device is ready, what else matters? One word: marketing. Can BlackBerry become a top marketer? It never was before. It never understood the importance. Of course, you may say it wasn't important back then -- but a few years ago, it became critical, and the tank was empty.

So that's the question. Is BlackBerry ready, and does it understand marketing? To tell you the truth, I don't yet know, but I have heard some pros and cons.

Missing in Action

I have been watching BlackBerry for signs of marketing life. Where is the magic potion it needs? What I have seen is good progress -- but is it good enough? Will it wow the marketplace?

BlackBerry hired Frank Boulben last year from LightSquared to head up the marketing department. At the time, his hire did not get much attention, but today Boulben may be the single most important factor in whether BlackBerry succeeds.

Over the last year, I have seen examples of both good and bad, and while BlackBerry marketing is better than before, the nagging question is simple -- is it enough?

Here is an example of a BlackBerry mistake. Many users need a feature that BlackBerry once offered. It lets them synchronize information between an older version of Microsoft Outlook on their computer with their BlackBerry. On Outlook, the feature is called "Notes." On the BlackBerry, it's called "Memo Pad." The problem is the new BlackBerry 10 does not let users do this as all earlier versions did.

In fact, Apple quickly added this feature to the iPhone after the first year or two. Without this feature, many BlackBerry users who stuck with the smartphone may have to switch to another device like Apple's iPhone, which still offers it.

This is one example of the concern I have for BlackBerry. Does it see the forest or just the trees?

BlackBerry must update, of course, but it must keep all the features and functionality its existing users are used to and still need. There are reasons BlackBerry users have stuck with the company. The new design is great, but it shouldn't lose some key features. Getting rid of features will carve away user loyalty, and that's the last thing that needs to happen.

BlackBerry used to be No. 1. Then the iPhone and a slew of Android smartphones entered the marketplace about six years ago. Now they dominate the market. BlackBerry has fallen very quickly.

However, the situation is not really as bad as it sounds. Six years ago, the smartphone market was tiny compared to today. RIM could still have all the customers it had back then and be No. 3 today. Still, it has lost plenty of business -- lots of business.

Expect 2013 to be the battle for the No. 3 position. Competitors like Microsoft, Nokia, Sony and many others will be vying with BlackBerry for that spot.

Can BlackBerry Market?

So, can BlackBerry's Boulben convince the marketplace that its new offerings are right for them? Can it solidly capture the No. 3 position and start to grow again? The question is simple: Is there a future for BlackBerry, or is it a thing of the past? The answer depends on how well it does with the customer, as well as with marketing, public relations, media relations, analyst relations and investor relations.

BlackBerry has developed so many new and exciting features and so much new functionality. It's really a breath of fresh air. The company has a couple of great new devices -- and its products will continue to get better over time. What could make BlackBerry hot is already here.

However, one concern is that the new BlackBerry may leave off many important features that existing users like. A bigger concern is whether BlackBerry will be able to really create a meaningful marketing push, which is something it has never done before. I'm not sure.

I hope so. I want BlackBerry to win. I want the company to be a solid competitor against Apple, Google, Microsoft, Nokia and others. I only hope it is ready to pull out all the stops and make its dream a reality. BlackBerry has to hit this one out of the park -- a single won't be good enough.

OK, Frank. As they say in baseball, "Batter up!"

My Pick of the Week is the Nokia Lumia. There are different versions. The 920 and 820 are available from AT&T Mobility; the 822 from Verizon Wireless; and the 810 from T-Mobile.

I can only talk about the AT&T Mobility version -- the Nokia Lumia 920 -- since that is the unit I've been testing. AT&T passed it out during its analyst meeting a few months ago.

Nokia 920

I didn't think that I would like it, but to tell you the truth, this is a very impressive device and operating system. It's fast, does everything very smoothly, and has tons of apps. It just works very differently.

I have to admit, letting us play with it is the best way to let people really know about how different, how innovative, and how good this device is. It's very different from both the iPhone and any of the Android-powered phones on the market.

What makes this device different is the Microsoft Windows 8 interface. The Nokia Microsoft partnership fits well here. It's another choice of operating systems, and more choice is always better.

So, which smartphone is best for you -- an iPhone, an Android or a Lumia? Aha. That's the million-dollar question. I can't answer that one. That's up to you -- everybody is different.

To make matters more confusing, there are other new operating systems entering the marketplace -- like the BlackBerry 10 later in March. So there will be plenty more to choose from. That's ultimately good news.

The Nokia Lumia 920 using Microsoft Windows 8 is definitely worth your consideration.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

E-Commerce Times columnist Jeff Kagan is a industry analyst and consultant who enjoys sharing his colorful perspectives on the changing industry he's been watching for 25 years. Email him at jeff@jeffKAGAN.com.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

http://www.ecommercetimes.com/story/Small-Cells-Could-Solve-ATTs-Data-Problem-77256.html

http://www.ecommercetimes.com/story/77256.html

ANALYSIS

Small Cells Could Solve AT&T's Data Problem

By Jeff Kagan

E-Commerce Times

02/07/13 5:00 AM PT

It looks as though AT&T Mobility has developed a small cell solution to the wireless industry's spectrum shortage -- a data capacity problem that will affect customers of every carrier. AT&T's is not the only solution -- there will be others as well -- but it is an important one.

The wireless industry has been dealing with this ever since the explosion of smartphones several years ago. The system is increasingly stressed with many customers using so much wireless data. The problem is spectrum, which provides the on- and off-ramps to the information superhighway. It's limited. Therefore, as with any highway, the threat of backups and traffic jams is growing.

Now it appears AT&T Mobility might have a solution. Small cells can lessen the effects of an industry-wide capacity shortage. This is exactly the kind of solution I've been hoping for over the last few years.

Small cells take the pressure off accessing the wireless Internet, while strengthening networks at their weak spots. Every network has weak spots, and this is a real solution.

Small cells are installed in key locations, inside buildings or in busy outdoor areas, to solve this access problem. They give everyone the ability to connect and use wireless data devices like smartphones, tablets and notebooks.

Wireless data spectrum shortages are a real threat to all wireless carriers, large and small, including AT&T Mobility, Verizon Wireless, Sprint Nextel, T-Mobile, C Spire Wireless, U.S. Cellular and others. An industry-wide solution must be found.

John Donovan, senior executive vice president at AT&T technology and network operations, wrote a blog post explaining this breakthrough. AT&T has successfully tested small deployments in two U.S. Cities, and the devices are working.

Because of this success, AT&T is preparing to roll out small cells to more than 40,000 locations by the end of 2015. The focus will be on strategic weak spots in the network to dramatically improve service and quality.

AT&T is not alone. Other wireless networks likely will take this same course. Small cells are expected to reach a half million units this year, with more growth to come.

While small cell technology won't solve the entire wireless data shortage, it does offer a real solution that will not only help carriers with their explosive wireless data needs, but also strengthen signals in all the weak spots that were a problem in the past.

As wireless becomes more important in our lives and to our society, the networks must get stronger, faster and better -- and with small cells, they will.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

E-Commerce Times columnist Jeff Kagan is a industry analyst and consultant who enjoys sharing his colorful perspectives on the changing industry he's been watching for 25 years. Email him at jeff@jeffKAGAN.com.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

http://www.ecommercetimes.com/story/Why-Apple-Is-Losing-Its-Shine-77200.html

ANALYSIS

Why Apple Is Losing Its Shine

By Jeff Kagan

E-Commerce Times

01/31/13 5:00 AM PT

Almost a year and a half ago, I asked a simple question: Will Apple Still Be Apple Without Steve Jobs? At the time, the answer seemed to be a simple "no." Over the next couple of years, Apple would become just another competitor, I predicted -- and unfortunately, that's exactly what is now happening.

Think of Apple as two different companies: One is a consumer electronics company that still has loads of happy customers; the other is an investment that's experiencing some performance problems. Customers may get lost in the fog of marketing la-la-land, but investors focus on the numbers. They simply want to make money, quarter after quarter.

Twenty years ago, Apple struggled. Then Steve Jobs came back, and the company started hitting the ball out of the park -- first with the iPod, then following with the iPhone, iPad and iPad mini -- wave after wave of success. During the boom time, investors saw Apple as a no-lose proposition. The stock kept rising as it continued to surprise and delight its customers.

Six years ago, RIM and Nokia were leaders in the wireless handset space. Then Apple changed the industry. Its touch seemed to turn everything to gold -- it was like magic. Google also jumped in, and today phones running its Android OS actually outpace iPhones in sales. With Apple and Google dominating the market, RIM and Nokia saw their shares quickly erode.

The Apple of Fewer Investors' Eyes

Today Apple is still a strong consumer electronics company, but it's suddenly having problems on Wall Street. As I have said many times, every company and every product rides a wave. The wave grows, levels off, then ultimately declines. Some waves are long and others are short.

Apple always started another wave with new products, even as existing products were riding high. If nothing had followed the iPod, it would have ridden that wave up and down again, but it created the iPhone wave, then the iPad wave, and so on. So the question always asked of Apple was: What's next? After all, there was always something coming next.

After Steve Jobs passed away and Tim Cook took the reins, however, Apple changed, but it has taken the past year and a half for the truth to settle in. Apple is still selling loads of devices, and customers still love them. The company is still strong. In fact, any other company would be drooling over the prospect of such great revenue and profitability.

The problem is simply that Apple is no longer meeting expectations -- which, for Apple, means consistently blowing away expectations. It seems to have lost the magic that guaranteed customers would always be delighted and investors would always make money. Apple has become a victim of its own success, and the shine is starting to fade.

During the last several months, Apple hit a dry patch. It has not been selling devices in the numbers Wall Street expected, and that is enough to cause investors to flee. That reaction may not make sense, but Apple isn't allowed to play by normal market rules. The bar is set higher for Apple than for any other company.

Apple's Next Chapter

What about Apple's future? Can it recapture its spectacular growth and stock performance? Perhaps, but without the Steve Jobs' magic, it may be that its growth wave is starting to crest, and it doesn't have another star act to begin a new one.

Apple will have to change. It will have to start marketing and advertising more. It will have to start talking to the marketplace in a different way than it has had to in the past. It will have to start acting like a normal company -- one that doesn't have an automatic glow. Can it succeed like that? No one knows yet. Many die-hard supporters say yes. Many others say no.

A year from today, we will either be looking at a recovered and thriving Apple, or the company will be struggling as it is today -- or things could be worse. It all depends on what Apple has up its sleeve -- and on that, your guess is as good as mine.

Hmm. Sounds like the same thing I've been saying about RIM -- which just changed its name to "BlackBerry" -- and its new BlackBerry 10 OS. I wonder if there is a connection?

One thing is for sure: Apple is a different company from the Apple we knew with Steve Jobs at the helm. Don't expect the Apple of the past to show up again. That chapter is over.

Competitors like BlackBerry, Microsoft and Nokia are gearing up for a very big battle against Apple and Google's Android partners this year. Will the industry change once again?

The real question is this: Will Apple move forward as a company both consumers and investors can love? That depends on what Tim Cook has up his sleeve. We'll find out soon enough.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

E-Commerce Times columnist Jeff Kagan is a industry analyst and consultant who enjoys sharing his colorful perspectives on the changing industry he's been watching for 25 years. Email him at jeff@jeffKAGAN.com.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

http://www.ecommercetimes.com/story/TV-Industry-Disruption-Aereos-Threat-and-Promise-77155.html

http://www.ecommercetimes.com/story/77155.html

ANALYSIS

TV Industry Disruption: Aereo's Threat and Promise

By Jeff Kagan

E-Commerce Times

01/24/13 5:00 AM PT

So, what is Aereo all about? Well, it's a brand new idea, a Web TV service. The days of the US$200 TV bill are numbered, said the CEO of Aereo in an interview with Ad Age.

This sounds like a good idea, right? Well, the cable television model is old and broken, and the need for lower-cost alternatives is growing. The timing may be right for companies like Aereo to transform cable television the way Apple and Google changed wireless. Can they succeed?

We have always loved to complain about how our cable television companies don't care. How they charge more every year, yet don't provide more programming we want to watch. How there are so many channels to flip through, yet there is never anything good on. How customer care and service leave so much to be desired. To make matters worse, there are just no low-cost alternatives.

Scary Times

Until relatively recently, cable television providers like Comcast, Time Warner and Cox really had no competition, so they grew. Satellite companies like Dish Network and DirecTV entered the field and chipped away a little bit of their business. Then local phone companies entered with services like AT&T's U-verse and Verizon's FiOS. Now it appears Apple and Google are getting ready to transform television the way they did wireless.

In fact, watching television is moving beyond the TV set to our computers, tablets and smartphones.

We are now entering the scariest time ever for cable TV company executives. They lie in bed at night, stare at the ceiling, and wonder how they can continue to keep their business stable and encourage growth. Many won't. Some will fail. However, innovation will burst through like a flower in the springtime.

Out with the old and in with the new. That's the new charge that Aereo wants to lead.

So, what is Aereo? It is a Web TV service that announced a multi-city expansion at CES a couple of weeks ago. Barry Diller is one key name backing this new service. Aereo was in the sites of the cable television industry several months back, but it won that battle in the courts. Now this innovative service is going to try to take on the massive cable television world. Will it succeed?

Sounds a little like MCI, the long distance company that shook things up in the 1980s. Aereo wants to do the same today in cable television. Working with MCI as a consultant really opened my eyes as to what indeed is possible in transforming industries and competitors. The executives of that company were among the best and most exciting around.

Aereo has the right idea, and the timing is right, but does it have a strong team and leadership? Does it have creative ideas for marketing and positioning itself in the marketplace against the heavy hitters? That will make all the difference.

Go With the Flow

Aereo uses a variety of technologies to get all the channels you want to watch. It uses antennas to capture local TV signals and store the broadcast content in the cloud. It makes other channels available over the Web. It provides live TV on smartphones, computers and tablets, in addition to your television, through a set-top box.

Its secret ingredient may be its plan to offer lower-cost choices to customers as it rolls into market after market. This is an important piece of the puzzle for Aereo. If it can do this, it will put enormous pressure on the main providers like Comcast to lower its prices as well. Actually, that sounds like what Comcast did in offering phone service using VoIP. That is in fact what MCI did to AT&T 30 years ago.

Broadcasters should embrace tech, not fight it, said Aereo CEO Chet Kanojia.

Aereo wants to expand television, not kill it, he emphasized. Of course, maybe those are the same words Steve Jobs used when talking to the music industry back in the 1990s.

Very few young customers are signing up and paying for expensive television from traditional providers like the cable television industry, Kanojia pointed out. The market is changing. When the VCR came out, there was the same kind of concern about it killing television. Yet it created an entirely new era of innovation and success in the industry. There were winners and losers, but the industry changed.

We may indeed be about to step into a new universe of ideas and products in the television industry -- at entirely new pricing models. This change will sweep the industry and affect us all. Many new companies will pressure existing market leaders. Those that can change can continue to lead. Those that can't will wither and die the way the long-distance industry did a decade ago.

Remember, as Earth-shaking as MCI was, it is no longer around. So what does the near and long term future hold for the cable television industry and Aereo? Stay tuned.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

http://www.ecommercetimes.com/story/Can-BB10-Rescue-RIM-77099.html

http://www.ecommercetimes.com/story/77099.html

ANALYSIS

Can BB10 Rescue RIM?

By Jeff Kagan

E-Commerce Times

01/17/13 5:00 AM PT

One of two things will happen with the upcoming launch of the brand new RIM Blackberry 10. Either it will be a success and help RIM get back on a growth curve, or it will end up being like the Palm Pre, loved by the media and analysts yet wanting for sales. Can RIM recover with Blackberry 10? It's possible. But the company must do two things right.

The smartphone market continues to change. Five years ago Blackberry was on top. Today's leaders are Apple iPhone and Google Android, while RIM has been struggling to hang on for dear life in the last few years.

First let's back up a few years to get a clear understanding of the current market. Around 2007, the leaders were RIM and Palm, the first two smartphone makers. You remember Palm, right? It was very popular.

Hearts and Minds

Palm began to struggle due in large part to a lack of marketing. It began to die and was acquired by HP, which undertook a valiant remake. Everyone seemed to love it, but that didn't matter. Customers didn't buy, and today Palm is gone.

RIM ruled the smartphone segment alone for a while, which sounded great, but now we see that having the market to itself didn't help it either. The company never developed good marketing skills, and when Apple and Google entered, suddenly transforming the space, RIM struggled to keep its head above water. That's where it remains today.

Suddenly there was intense innovation and marketing and RIM simply could not keep up. It just never learned how. Today, the industry is led by companies that understand this world of marketing and building a wave.

Call It a Comeback?

Google and Apple have been No. 1 and No. 2, leaving past leaders like RIM and Nokia behind in the dust. So what is their chance of recovery?

Even Motorola was dying on the vine after the Razr success, until it made did the Droid deal with Google and Verizon. Now owned by Google, Motorola Mobility is much smaller than before, but at least alive. As a side note, it will be interesting to see what happens next for Motorola with Google ownership.

Several years ago, I tried to warn RIM's leaders about this problem. I wrote articles, sent press releases and gave speeches, but they didn't see any problem at that time. In the last couple years its management seems to be getting a clearer picture of its problems. The company replaced the CEO and many executives as well, and has updated its technology with BB10. What about the marketing piece of the puzzle?

Today RIM seems to understand there is problem, to a point anyway. It still doesn't see the same crisis investors and analysts do, or at least no one there is admitting to it.

The Marketing Question

Current CEO Thorsten Heins has a strong and positive attitude. That is good from the CEO level. The question is whether he can transform the thinking of the marketplace. I am not yet sure.

There are two questions I have that will tell whether RIM will be successful and can mount a turnaround.

One is this brand-new BB10 operating system. Is it innovative and will it get customers to simply say "WOW?" We'll soon see when it is released end of January.

Two, has RIM learned about marketing and advertising? This is key to its success. It's the secret sauce. Without it there will be no success. RIM never had it before. Does it now?

If the answer is yes, then BB10 could indeed be a big hit and put RIM back on the new growth path.

If the answer is no, then RIM will stay on the current downward slide of the growth wave.

Battle for No. 3

Don't get me wrong, even if successful, RIM won't become No. 1 or 2. Google and Apple seem to have a lock on that, for now anyway. But like Motorola , RIM could stop the losses and start growing again.

The marketplace is thirsty for operating systems other than Google Android and Apple iPhone.

Today RIM is stronger in other countries than it is in the United States. That may be why it doesn't see the same crisis we in the U.S. do, but the U.S. market is a vision of the future for RIM. It will either be on the growth side or the falling side of the wave, period. Right now, it's still on the falling side.

The No. 3 and 4 slots are up for grabs -- and RIM is not the only company vying for them.

Microsoft is making a real try for No. 3 with the new Windows 8 operating system and cloud to manage multiple devices like smartphones, Surface tablets and computers. Many customers like what Microsoft is doing, but many others don't. It will be interesting to see what happens next in Redmond.

RIM's Future

RIM execs invited me to dinner last year and we discussed their company's future and the changing industry. That was a great sign they were at least willing to listen and engage. Did they?

There is a battle raging inside RIM. One side may understand the need to change and update marketing and thinking. Another side may not get it. The question is, which side will win?

RIM is no longer king of the hill. It has shrunk to about 4 percent market share, so it will have to fight to come back. It can capture No. 3 if it can get the two items right, great technology and great marketing. So what are the chances?

A side note: as I sit here in Starbucks writing this column, a friend walked up to me and said he is bringing his mother to the mall this afternoon to trade in her Blackberry Torch for a brand-new iPhone. I told him I was writing about this very subject. I even told him to save some money she could by the previous iPhone 4 series rather than the iPhone 5.

He told me, nope, she wants the newest, latest and greatest iPhone. I am sure she doesn't need it, but Apple has convinced her with its marketing -- and that is the challenge RIM is up against. Can it meet the challenge? We'll soon see.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

E-Commerce Times columnist Jeff Kagan is a industry analyst and consultant who enjoys sharing his colorful perspectives on the changing industry he's been watching for 25 years. Email him at jeff@jeffKAGAN.com.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

http://www.ecommercetimes.com/story/Shore-Up-Before-the-Next-Disaster-Strikes-76729.html

http://www.ecommercetimes.com/story/76729.html

ANALYSIS

Shore Up Before the Next Disaster Strikes

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

http://www.ecommercetimes.com/story/76690.html

http://www.ecommercetimes.com/story/Windows-8-Is-Too-Much-Too-Soon-for-Many-Users-76690.html

ANALYSIS

Windows 8 Is Too Much, Too Soon for Many Users

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

http://www.ecommercetimes.com/story/US-Is-King-of-the-4G-World-76574.html

http://www.ecommercetimes.com/story/76574.html

ANALYSIS

US Is King of the 4G World

By Jeff Kagan

E-Commerce Times

11/08/12 5:00 AM PT

http://www.ecommercetimes.com/story/Verizons-New-Ad-Campaign-Is-a-Load-of-Half-Truths-76387.html

http://www.ecommercetimes.com/story/76387.html

ANALYSIS

Verizon's New Ad Campaign Is a Load of Half-Truths

By Jeff Kagan

E-Commerce Times

11/01/12 5:00 AM PT

http://www.ecommercetimes.com/story/Foreigners-Gobbling-Up-American-Pie-76477.html

http://www.ecommercetimes.com/story/76477.html

E-Commerce Times columnist Jeff Kagan is a tech analyst and consultant who enjoys sharing his colorful perspectives on the changing industry he's been watching for 25 years. Email him at jeff@jeffKAGAN.com  

http://www.ecommercetimes.com/story/Lenovos-at-the-Top-of-the-PC-Heap---but-the-Ground-Is-Shaking-76420.html

http://www.ecommercetimes.com/story/76420.html

ANALYSIS

Lenovo's at the Top of the PC Heap - but the Ground Is Shaking

By Jeff Kagan

E-Commerce Times

10/18/12 5:00 AM PT

The global PC market has a new leader. Lenovo has quietly been fighting and winning and is now officially No.1 in the PC industry, edging out HP. You would think things look great for Lenovo. This is a big victory, right?

The problem is the traditional PC industry is transforming itself. Can Lenovo remain No. 1 with smartphones and tablet computers changing and expanding this business ?

My Pick of the Week is C Spire Wireless' launch of the next phase of Newslink, which delivers personalized news to each customer. Pretty cool.

More Slices of Pie

Ten years ago, if you said the name "Lenovo," I am not sure how much of an impression it would make. Several years ago, however, Lenovo acquired IBM's personal computer business and started to grow rapidly. Suddenly it was on the radar.

I have been a Thinkpad user for more than 20 years, and I can tell you that all the changes in recent years have not been good. As a customer, I have had my share of issues since the Lenovo acquisition, but the company has been on a strong growth trajectory, and from an investor perspective, that is very good.

Last week, Gartner ranked Lenovo as No. 1 in the PC industry. Based on worldwide shipments, IDC had HP clinging to the top spot -- but by less than 0.5 percent.

Either way, Lenovo seems to be on the rapid growth side of the wave I frequently discuss, while HP is on the falling side. So congratulations to Lenovo on attaining this amazing goal.

However, during the last few years, the PC business has started a significant and long-term transformation. The PC business is no longer just about desktops and notebooks. It's expanded, and today it's also about tablets, smartphones, ultra-portables, smart TVs, cloud computing, and other industry reshaping trends.

The traditional PC business seems to be slumping right now -- however, pull the camera back and you can see a rapidly growing larger industry. What is happening is simple. The PC industry started with desktops. It was one big slice. Next came notebooks and laptops -- another slice.

Today there are so many new slices. New products are reshaping the industry, and more are coming. So, can Lenovo hang on to the lead in this expanded industry? That is the question. We are not moving away from traditional computers, but we have created another few segments in the computer business -- more slices to the pie.

Each slice will be smaller, but customers will buy multiple devices from multiple slices, so the marketplace will actually increase. This same effect is occurring in other industries as well. Yesterday you may have had a laptop, but tomorrow you will also have a smartphone, tablet, cloud services, smart TVs and more.

A Slippery Spot

This is a huge and new opportunity -- not only for Lenovo, but also for every other company in the space, plus new ones. Microsoft wants to lead with Windows 8. Intel wants to lead with its chips. Hardware makers like Toshiba, Dell, HP, Asus and many others are in the mix. Apple, Google, Samsung and more will play a defining role in this changing industry.

As you can see, there is enormous opportunity and enormous risk as well for all industry players. So don't be fooled by changing numbers and new segments. People still love their Thinkpads and desktops to do lots of real work. However, new devices like tablets and smartphones can fill other needs even better.

The good news for customers is that since PCs are slumping right now, they are a bargain. The PC market has shrunk by roughly 8 percent in the third quarter. So as the industry reinvents and re-sizes itself, consumers win. Imagine a Thinkpad for just a bit over US$500. Amazing.

The traditional PC business is facing extraordinary pressures. I think the downturn will continue for a while, but then it will level off as the industry finds its new balance. With all this change in the air, Lenovo should be very happy with its performance to date -- and at the same time, very worried about the changing marketplace.

Some computer makers will win, and others will lose. The list of winners and losers will shift in the next few years. Lenovo Chief Executive Yang Yuanqing seems to understand that challenge.

Becoming the clear leader in global PC of course remains one of Lenovo's aspirations, he said, but it alsorepresents just one more milestone in its journey as a company. Its mission is to become the leader in PCs, tablets, smartphones, smart TVs, cloud computing and enterprise IT.

Yuanqing seems to have a good view of industry changes. That is exactly how companies like Lenovo need to think.

Companies like HP were always Lenovo competitors, but now the competition has expanded to include companies like Apple, Google, Samsung, Motorola and more. As RIM and Nokia have learned the hard way, these companies don't play games.

Remember, the industry is not only expanding, but also reinventing itself. This disruption means leadership could change in the industry.

David Roman, chief marketing officer of Lenovo, called its upcoming product release the single largest marketing launch the company has ever done. That's great for now, but how the company is preparing for new competition is the bigger question. So congratulations to Lenovo for winning the No. 1 spot, but that is just step one of a multistep process.

Who will be No. 1 going forward, as the industry continues to transform? This is the question we all want an answer to.

My Pick of the Week is C Spire Wireless' launch of the next phase of Newslink, which delivers personalized news to each customer.

What matters to each customer is different. Newslink learns what each customer wants. It delivers personalized news stories directly to customers' computers, tablets and smartphones. Pretty cool -- and it's free.

C Spire is building its business by giving customers what they want.

Earlier this year, C Spire became the first U.S. wireless provider to offer access to free news content with its Newslink Beta. It now delivers daily, personalized news based on what matters most to each customer.

The more you read and share, the more Newslink learns about you, enabling it to send more of the stories you are really interested in.

Now if I can only get it to reply to all my email, THAT would be terrific! 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

E-Commerce Times columnist Jeff Kagan is a tech analyst and consultant who enjoys sharing his colorful perspectives on the changing industry he's been watching for 25 years. Email him at jeff@jeffKAGAN.com  

http://www.technewsworld.com/story/76390.html

http://www.ecommercetimes.com/story/Softbank-Tosses-the-Dice-With-20B-Sprint-Deal-76390.html

OPINION

Softbank Tosses the Dice With $20B Sprint Deal

By Jeff Kagan

E-Commerce Times

10/15/12 9:32 AM PT

It's official. Sprint Nextel and Softbank are getting together. If the deal is approved, Softbank will own 70 percent of Sprint Nextel. That means this is not really an acquisition. Rather it is an investment. However, as a majority owner you can expect Softbank to steer the Sprint ship. That could be great news for the No. 3 U.S. wireless player. We can expect some changes going forward.

I have been following Sprint for decades. This is great news for Sprint Nextel and for Softbank. Sprint has been struggling in a weak third place. It started when Sprint was a long-distance company and continued when it got into wireless. This could give Sprint the financial backing it needs to grow more rapidly.

Softbank wants this deal because Japan's wireless marketplace has already matured and is now slowing, while the U.S. marketplace is still growing rapidly on the wireless data side. Growth in wireless is not about voice -- it's about wireless data.

This is a risk for Softbank as it will go into debt to invest in Sprint. Also, Sprint has never been a rapidly growing company. Can Softbank shake things up in Kansas City? Perhaps.

Sprint Surge Ahead?

First, this deal has to be approved. It would be tough enough if it were two U.S. firms merging. This is a Japanese company merging with a U.S. firm. That is much more difficult. Regulators have to be concerned with more issues -- like national security. So we'll have to watch and see.

Assuming this deal is approved, it will happen later next year in 2013.

I don't expect to see any rapid changes to Sprint Nextel for customers. The company will remain the same for a while. However, this will allow Sprint to more rapidly build out its LTE footprint over the next few years. That will be very helpful to its growth trajectory.

I do see this partnership giving Sprint the financial power it needs -- not only to invest in its network speeds, but also to compete more successfully against AT&T and Verizon.

Look at the U.S. wireless marketplace. Some companies are growing and doing strong business , while others are not. AT&T and Verizon are on the strong growth side of the wave. Sprint Nextel and T-Mobile have been on the weak side of the same wave.

This could give Sprint the ability to start growing rapidly like AT&T and Verizon. That's the good part of this story for Sprint.

Why hasn't Sprint grown over the years? CEO Dan Hesse brought deals to the board of directors, but after being burned by the Nextel merger, they basically said no.

When Sprint acquired Nextel, the deal made sense -- but that was right when the wireless marketplace started to change from being a voice business to becoming a wireless data business, with Apple launching the iPhone and Google introducing the Android OS.

Faster Speed vs. Unlimited Data

Softbank wants Sprint because of the growth potential in wireless data services.

That means Sprint will have to invest in and more rapidly bring its network up to AT&T and Verizon speeds. That is not an overnight issue. It will take time.

Today, AT&T and Verizon have 4G LTE in many more markets than Sprint does. So that's why Sprint uses its unlimited plans to attract customers. The marketplace is split into two groups: those who want speed and those who want unlimited wireless data.

If Sprint can more rapidly invest in and increase the speed of its network to match AT&T and Verizon more closely, will that mean it will eliminate its unlimited plans?

As for Softbank, Chairman and CEO Masayoshi Son sees this as an excellent opportunity for Softbank to leverage its expertise in smartphones and next-generation high speed networks, including LTE, to drive the mobile Internet revolution in one of the world's largest markets.

So as you can see, this is big news, but there are still so many questions.

If the deal closes, it will give Softbank a solid entry into the U.S. wireless market.

Then it's just a question of whether it can invest in the network and use advertising and marketing and public relations to turn Sprint around. The potential is there.

For Sprint, one thing is certain right now: The world looks much brighter than it did just a few short days ago. This announcement is good news for Sprint customers, workers, investors and partners. Let's hope for the best. 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

E-Commerce Times columnist Jeff Kagan is a tech analyst and consultant who enjoys sharing his colorful perspectives on the changing industry he's been watching for 25 years. Email him at jeff@jeffKAGAN.com  

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

http://www.ecommercetimes.com/story/Sprint-Needs-More-Fighting-Spirit-76364.html

http://www.ecommercetimes.com/story/76364.html

OPINION

Sprint Needs More Fighting Spirit

By Jeff Kagan

E-Commerce Times

10/11/12 5:00 AM PT

What's next for Sprint Nextel? It has been pondering its future for years and that is its problem. It doesn't seem to realize it has to take the next step and act. Pondering is good. You want to make sure you don't make mistakes. However acting is the next step to realize your dreams, and Sprint doesn't act. It appears that is one of its big problems.

My Pick of the Week is Advanced Frequency Engineering, which put out a very interesting report earlier this week that seems to really hurt Sprint's LTE claims.

Tough Love

Don't get me wrong. I like Sprint. I like the management, the workers and the technology. Sprint could be a great company. So why isn't it?

The wireless space is very successful. Just look at both AT&T and Verizon. However Sprint is not firing on all cylinders. It ponders, yet it doesn't act. It is not the only company that is missing in wireless. Look at T-Mobile and many others as well. However, Sprint is No. 3, and should be doing very well.

It's like a hunter with the animal in its scope -- yet it never pulls the trigger. If that's what it wants, then fine, but Sprint should be a photographer, not a hunter. However, as long as it is a wireless company, it must do what it takes to be successful as a wireless company. Period.

Is it the fault of the CEO? Dan Hesse was brought in to rebuild Sprint after it fell off the tracks years ago. Fortunately, he did a great job of stabilizing Sprint. Unfortunately, it's at a very low level and it just cannot seem to grow.

This reminds me of Qwest years ago. It was crashing and burning until it brought in Richard Notebaert as CEO. He stopped the drop and saved the company -- however, he was unable to get it growing once again.

Is it the fault of the board of directors? Every time Hesse brings a deal to the board, nothing happens. This has been a Sprint board problem for much too long. So it goofed with Nextel. Big deal. Move on.

So why does Sprint not act and build? That is the question everyone has been asking for years. Sprint now seems camera shy.

Hesse said deals were coming in the wireless industry and Sprint would participate in them. Bravo. That's what we want to hear. However Hesse brought the idea of a few acquisitions to the Sprint board, and the board said no. That was another enormous missed opportunity.

Fear of Failure

I understand Sprint's fear of making a wrong decision. It wants to avoid another Nextel, after all. But mistakes happen. That doesn't mean you stop. That means you keep going.

In every successful company, there are always tons of failures that are forgotten about for every great idea that succeeds. Just think of all the crap companies like Apple and Google have brought us over the years. Yet they are still successful, aren't they? You do remember the first Google Nexus cellphone from about four years ago, don't you?

The bottom line is companies need to be able to negotiate the churning waters with positive messages and growth strategies. Some will work and others will fail. That's life. You can't fail unless you stop trying, and unfortunately that is what we see Sprint doing right now.

MetroPCS does not have to be over for Sprint. It could try to acquire the company and fight T-Mobile. Or it could let this merger take place and then acquire the new, larger company. There are still possibilities.

Does Sprint have the ability to act that way?

This acquisition is important to Sprint, because there are very few deals that are large enough to really impact it. This is it. So, as you can see, the mistakes of the past can still be corrected if Sprint acts. Will it? That is the question we all have. We'll see.

My Pick of the Week is Advanced Frequency Engineering, which put out a very interesting report earlier this week that, if true, really pinches Sprint Nextel's LTE claims. It says there are big differences between Sprint LTE coverage and its advertised claims. The reporting I have read on this takes Sprint by surprise.

This report said that both AT&T and Verizon did better covering 100 percent in their tested areas.

Independent testing was done in Atlanta, Dallas, Fort Worth and Kansas City, using Samsung Galaxy S III LTE handsets and equipment that analyzes spectrum.

This testing indicated Sprint LTE service was either not present or not accessible in 75-90 percent of its advertised LTE coverage area.

Sprint claims to offer LTE in 19 cities with another 100 on the way in coming months. This study said Sprint had 15 percent coverage in Atlanta, 10 percent coverage in Dallas, 20 percent in Fort Worth, and 25 percent in Kansas City.

So, while Sprint is in those markets, the report says it is barely in those markets.

The choice for customers is simple and clear right now: Either choose AT&T or Verizon for high-speed data, because they have many more cities, or Sprint Nextel for slower connections but unlimited plans.

The lesson here is companies should under-promise and over-deliver. That way you have happy customers. And isn't that the goal? 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

E-Commerce Times columnist Jeff Kagan is a tech analyst and consultant who enjoys sharing his colorful perspectives on the changing industry he's been watching for 25 years. Email him at jeff@jeffKAGAN.com  

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

http://www.ecommercetimes.com/story/The-FCCs-Wireless-Spectrum-Band-Aid-76312.html

http://www.ecommercetimes.com/story/76312.html

OPINION

The FCC's Wireless Spectrum Band-Aid

By Jeff Kagan

E-Commerce Times

10/04/12 5:00 AM PT

The FCC has weighed in on the looming wireless spectrum shortage. The good news is it looks like it is going to step in with a plan for auctioning off unused television spectrum to various wireless carriers in the United States. The bad news is that even though it's only a bandage, it will take years to accomplish.

My Pick of the Week is Apple CEO Tim Cook doing the right thing and apologizing for the Maps screw-up.

Musical Chairs

There are short-term solutions and long-term solutions. This FCC idea is a good short-term fix -- but we really need a long-term solution.

Remember the LightSquared saga over the last couple years? If that had worked, it would have been a long-term solution. The company intended to offer wireless spectrum to carriers. However, here we are -- once again playing the childhood game of musical chairs.

You remember musical chairs, right? That's the game where six kids walk around five chairs until the music stops and they all rush to sit down. There is always one who is left out. One by one, players are eliminated.

This is the same game being played today in the wireless industry. The question here is which wireless carriers will get more spectrum, and which will be left out?

Those who are left out will have quality problems, then lose customers, and eventually fold.

We cannot let that happen. If a company offers bad service or high prices, that's one thing. Not enough spectrum is quite another. Remember, more competitors mean lower prices and better customer service. In fact, more competitors are even better for AT&T and Verizon since it means they'll be subject to less regulatory scrutiny.

Against the desires of the television industry, the FCC wants to re-allocate its spectrum because the wireless industry now has a greater need.

This does not solve the long-term problem, but it is an effective bandage for a while -- a short-term solution.

Spectrum used by wireless carriers like AT&T, Verizon, Sprint, T-Mobile, C Spire, U.S. Cellular, and many others is limited, and the demand is growing rapidly.

If we don't develop real solutions, then every carrier and every customer will face shortages and quality problems. It's just a matter of time before the wireless roads slow down and get clogged.

First Things First

In just the next two to three years, the U.S. government expects wireless data usage will increase thirty-fold. Thirty! Question: Is the way we use spectrum today in 2012 going to work in 2015? No.

We either solve this problem now or face horrendous service problems with wireless data and calls tomorrow. It's our choice. Unless we fix this problem, every wireless carrier and customer will be impacted.

Auctioning off spectrum seemed to make sense years ago. However, the iPhone, Android phones, and tablets like the iPad are gobbling up record amounts of wireless data. This is rapidly squeezing the wireless spectrum the carriers use.

So in the first step, the U.S. government will ask broadcasters to volunteer and sell their spectrum. The FCC will then prepare that spectrum for auction.

The auctions themselves won't take place until 2014, but that's the process. If we need more, there will be additional steps, but let's focus on first things first.

Many smaller carriers have asked for special status in this auction to keep them alive and to keep the industry competitive. This makes sense, because we always need more, not less, competition.

However, both AT&T and Verizon also need more spectrum for their hungry and growing customer bases. This makes just as much sense.

So what's the solution? Even though there is limited spectrum, we have to make sure we keep all the wireless carriers healthy and in business.

However, in the game of musical chairs, there are always losers.

A Spectrum Pool

So what is the solution? It's easy actually.

Equal access. Sharing spectrum. This is the best solution to keep all the competitors, keep all the quality, and keep the focus on the customer.

If carriers would pool all their spectrum, there would be plenty in every area around the U.S. No shortages would exist, at least for the foreseeable future.

So all carriers could pool their spectrum and have it managed by a third party -- makes sense, and carriers could continue to own their spectrum. All the spectrum would then be available to every carrier to use. Sounds a lot like that LightSquared idea -- but on a much larger scale.

That would keep all companies healthy and in business. The carriers who own the spectrum would be compensated for usage, making it fair financially to carriers, users and owners.

It would give every carrier equal access to spectrum, keeping all in a strong competitive position. Carriers would not compete on spectrum. Instead, they would compete on customer care, pricing, and things beyond connectivity.

That would be healthy for the industry. Customers would be happy, and competitors would stay in business.

Of course, major carriers would rather own. I don't blame them. In a perfect world, owning makes more sense. Unfortunately, this is not a perfect world. So, whichever solution we choose, we must recognize that every carrier, large and small, is in desperate need of more spectrum. It's a question of survival.

We want to keep many competitors in the marketplace as well. Competition keeps pricing low, innovation high and customer service good.

Television companies could buy into this program as well. They could use this same spectrum along with the wireless industry, making everyone happy. So, whether we auction off the cable television spectrum or decide to share, we must do something -- and quickly. And we must make sure all industry competitors survive.

Let's keep our eyes on the right ball to make sure the industry continues to hum along rather than get stuck in the largest wireless data traffic jam we have ever seen.

We're getting perilously close to the wireless spectrum cliff, and there is no time to waste.

My Pick of the Week is Apple CEO Tim Cook's apology for the Maps screw-up. He did the right thing, and I want to say congratulations.

His apology does not solve the Maps disaster, but it does show Apple seems to understand users' extreme frustration.

You never heard an apology from Steve Jobs. Remember the iPhone antenna screw-up? This first-time admission from Apple that it is only human and makes mistakes is refreshing. I like it.

The question is, will it be helpful or harmful to Apple going forward? The answer to that question depends on whom you ask. Everyone seems to think this is a sign of growing maturity. What does a more mature Apple look like anyway? That is the question we are all interested in. 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

E-Commerce Times columnist Jeff Kagan is a tech analyst and consultant who enjoys sharing his colorful perspectives on the changing industry he's been watching for 25 years. Email him at jeff@jeffKAGAN.com

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

http://www.ecommercetimes.com/story/The-Future-of-Comcast-is-on-the-Line-76260.html

http://www.ecommercetimes.com/story/76260.html

OPINION

The Future of Comcast is on the Line

By Jeff Kagan

E-Commerce Times

09/27/12 5:00 AM PT

Comcast has grown and changed so much over the last 15 years that many expect this wave to continue. It may, but for that to happen Comcast must realize the marketplace is changing and steer through the upcoming rapids. Can it do that?

My Pick of the Week is AT&T's plan to stop texting while driving.

Humble Origins

Back in the 1990s, Comcast was a small cable television company. Back then, its competition was limited to a couple of newer satellite television companies. It didn't compete with the local phone companies or Netflix or Amazon. Today it does -- and competition is heating up.

As an analyst, I like to pull the camera back and look at where a company has come from, consider where it is today, and then look forward.

I have worked on a consulting basis with just about every competitor in the space over the last 25 years, so I understand much of the change that has occurred. Some companies succeeded while others have not. The industry has been evolving. Back in the 1980s, there were several different sectors, including local and long distance telephone, and cable television.

Over the years, the industry has changed. Long-distance companies faded, other companies merged, and sectors like wireless, Internet and television grew. Many times, we tried to bring competition to the cable television industry.

In the 1990s, cable television was an industry full of small providers. Then the Baby Bells introduced a new competitor, called "Americast." At that time it looked like the local phone companies were going to be in the television business, competing with the cable TV companies. Then the seven Baby Bells started merging, and Americast was put on the back burner.

The cable television industry at the time was an industry full of many, smaller service providers. Back in those days, Comcast was just a little company. Back then, AT&T was enormous, but it was changing as well.

I remember in 1999, the long distance giant AT&T was run by CEO Mike Armstrong, and it acquired Denver-based Telecommunications Inc (TCI), then one of the largest cable television companies in the United States, run by Leo Hindery.

Overnight, this acquisition turned AT&T into the largest cable television company. It seemed to fit: the largest long-distance giant, the largest wireless company, and then the largest cable television company. Things went sour pretty quickly, however. AT&T failed at cable television. In fact, it started to fail at everything, losing its long-distance consumers to the Baby Bells.

That started the unraveling of the old AT&T, and it happened pretty quickly for what was the world's best-known brand. AT&T sold its TCI cable television business to Comcast. It spun off its wireless phone business, then called "AT&T Wireless." Then AT&T was acquired by SBC, about eight years ago. SBC took the name and now calls itself "at&t." The acquisition by Comcast changed it from one of the smaller players to the largest cable television company in the country, overnight.

The deal that transformed Comcast was struck thanks to Brian Roberts, the current CEO. Brian took the helm from his father Ralph Roberts who led the company until then. That transformed Comcast into a giant, overnight. A small family business suddenly became an industry-leading giant. But it still had further to grow.

Over the last few years, Comcast has been a Fortune 100 company with more than 24 million customers and 100,000 employees. It owns various networks and television stations. It also took majority ownership in NBC Universal.

So Comcast is growing and changing -- it is not the same company it was just 15 years ago. I expect to see it continue to grow and to change. In fact, other companies like Time Warner and Cox also grew.

That's the good part.

PR's Crucial Role

The growth has not been painless, however. While Comcast grows and succeeds on many levels, it struggles on many others. One of several areas where Comcast seems to have a missing link is public relations and relating to the customer. Comcast seems to expect the world to understand it and change to accommodate the company. Is that working?

That's why it failed at wireless a few years ago. That's why its new brand Xfinity is struggling today. Like I have told so many CEOs and executives over the years, if you don't have good public relations, and if you don't tell the marketplace not only your news, but also your position on your news, then they will fill in the blanks themselves. And more times than not, you will not be happy with the results.

Now Comcast is starting to focus on public relations and brand-building, which is a great idea and opportunity. The company absolutely needs it. Will it work? It depends. It has the big box of crayons -- now let's see if it can draw.

One question: Why hasn't it taken this path already over the last 10 years? Good question. I don't know either. Perhaps it's because until the early 2000s, Comcast never had competition. In fact none of the cable television companies had competition. But what about the last 10 years?

Since then, the local phone companies have gotten back into television with their IPTV service. AT&T uVerse and Verizon FiOS are very heavy hitters, and to this date, telephone companies have proven to be better marketers than cable TV companies.

In addition, satellite television services are now large competitors, and there are new competitors using the Internet like Netflix and Amazon, which are rapidly growing and changing the industry. To save money, a growing number of customers are buying plain old television antennas and getting channels for free. They can then download other television shows or movies from a variety of services, like Amazon, and they are happy and pay next to nothing.

New competitors are getting ready to pounce into the cable television business with new breakthroughs as well. Companies like Google and Apple look serious -- and they have already changed other industries, like wireless.

In a strange new partnership, Comcast and Verizon Wireless have gotten together. Walk into any Verizon store and you may find Comcast cable television products for sale. This was a result of Comcast selling its wireless spectrum to Verizon Wireless. So are they partners or competitors? Not sure what will develop. We'll have to keep our eyes on this one.

The good news for Comcast is that cable television companies have grown and gotten stronger over the last decade. The bad news is that may be changing. The growth wave may be peaking. We may start to see traditional cable television companies shrink over the next few years unless they can fix the problem and maintain their lead.

The concern for Comcast is that competition is growing rapidly. What is it doing to answer that threat? Its quiet PR over the years has not helped it. The industry is now entering a new era of competition and technology. Think of the marketplace as a pie. Yesterday, it had no slices -- but today is has many slices, and new technology will make even more slices.

Perhaps some customers don't mind paying more every year for services, but others do. Many customers want to save money, and Comcast does not help them. Its rates go up regularly. What ever happened to the a la carte pricing the industry was was buzzing about a couple of years ago?

The new Comcast brand called "Xfinity" launched a year or so ago. It has not really worked well, because Comcast doesn't understand how to build this new brand. First you change and update the service; then and only then do you rename it and reintroduce it.

So, looking forward, things are both exciting and challenging for Comcast. Which future path will the company take? Will it continue to grow, or is its wave cresting? You have to understand what customers think about you and why. You have to know how they feel about you -- and you have to change and improve that.

Only then should you invite customers, investors, the media and analysts to follow along on the journey with a new brand name and identity. One of Comcast's weakest links is its PR. Over the last decade, it has just not been successful.

In this new world of technology, the question is this: Will existing leaders continue growing, or will they give way to new competitors? I believe Comcast faces a choice in a changing marketplace. One way will lead to continued strong growth. If it takes the other way, it will start to fall. Will it understand what is happening, make the changes, and continue to grow? It's all in the hands of Comcast.

My Pick of the Week is AT&T's plan to stop texting while driving. When this whole idea of don't text while driving began, I thought it was crazy. After all, we all do so much behind the wheel every day -- from eating burgers to putting on makeup.

However, texting is something that we do too often while driving, and ever second your eyes are not on the road can result in a terrible accident and loss of life. Thousands of people die every year -- mainly young adults who don't really have a good feel for driving yet anyway. If you are texting, there is a 23 percent higher risk of getting into an accident.

Got your attention?

So, I congratulate AT&T for this plan to raise the awareness of everyone. AT&T is not only running countless ads, but also sending three vehicle simulators to U.S. colleges to make its point. It has also created a free app for Android and BlackBerry, called "DriveMode," that automatically replies to incoming texts with an "I'm driving" message.

In fact, Verizon, Sprint and T-Mobile are offering a similar app.

So follow this good advice, and save lives. Don't text while you drive. 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

E-Commerce Times columnist Jeff Kagan is a tech analyst and consultant who enjoys sharing his colorful perspectives on the changing industry he's been watching for 25 years. Email him at jeff@jeffKAGAN.com

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

http://www.ecommercetimes.com/story/New-iPhone-Now-Hook-Up-With-the-Best-Network-76197.html

http://www.ecommercetimes.com/story/76197.html

OPINION

New iPhone? Now Hook Up With the Best Network

By Jeff Kagan

E-Commerce Times

09/20/12 5:00 AM PT

So, now that you have a new Apple iPhone, which network is best? Yesterday you didn't have to think about it, since it was only available on AT&T. Today, however, it's harder to decide. It's offered by Verizon, Sprint, C Spire and even a few prepaid carriers. So which carrier is really the best choice for you?

My Pick of the Week is AT&T for setting a new iPhone sales record over the first weekend following the iPhone 5's launch.

Choosing the Best Network

There are several different factors to consider when choosing your provider -- but making the right choice may be easier than you think.

Ask yourself a question: Why do you use your current carrier?

Is it because it's the same carrier as your family and friends and you want to be part of the group? Is it because you have a phone on someone else's account and didn't get to choose the carrier? Is it because this is your work account and it's your company's choice?

Or just maybe you chose the carrier because it offered the best coverage where you spend the most time.

Many of us have a reason for our carrier choice. However, don't assume all carriers are created equal. They aren't. And don't assume that all carriers offer great service to every customer. They don't.

You are fortunate in one respect -- the iPhone is pretty much the same no matter which carrier you use. However, the service you get can be very different from one to another.

If you have the freedom to choose your carrier, then it's time to get to work thinking about which is the best one for you.

What kind of user are you? Different carriers tend to have different strengths and weaknesses. Finding the right carrier for your needs is the primary goal. Otherwise, your new iPhone may have poor signal strength, and that means it won't work -- no connection.

Carriers are all different. Just because one advertises it is the largest this or has the most that doesn't mean it is the best for you.

Check Your Favorite Haunts

Many of us choose a carrier based on great marketing. We buy a phone and then find out later that the carrier's signal is weak or nonexistent in some of the places where we regularly spend time.

Carriers all have different strengths and weaknesses. So spend some time to explore which carrier is the best for you where you spend the most time. It's not only signal strength; it's the type of network you are connected to. Is it the faster 4G network? Or is it 3G, which gives you a connection at a slower speed?

The best choice for you this year may be different from last year. Sometimes providers change pricing or strategy . Sometimes the locations where you spend time change, or you have different needs. Sometimes network upgrade -- or lack of one -- affects your service.

Believe it or not, I use phones from all the major carriers, but for my daily usage, only one gives me the best and strongest signal in all of the places I regularly spend time. The others are good, and I like them all -- but for my primary phone, my choice is easy.

Your choice may be simple as well. Make sure you know the strengths and weaknesses of the different carriers' signals. They are not created equal.

Generally speaking, each of the carriers that offers the iPhone is a major network that offers great quality.

Generally speaking, I would trust any of them.

I don't choose my carrier based on advertising or marketing, though. I choose based on which gives me the best signal where I spend time. That is something you should consider.

The next factor is this: What turns you on? Speed? Unlimited data plan? Many of us would prefer both, but you have to choose -- one or the other.

Faster Speed?

AT&T and Verizon offer the fastest speeds in more locations today on their 4G LTE networks.

If you have noticed their advertising, both claim to be the fastest. The truth is, it depends where you are standing when you make the call and what device you use. Don't pay attention to advertising when choosing your carrier. Base your decision on tests you carry out where you spend time.

AT&T is faster in some places, and Verizon is faster in others. However, both are very fast, and those top speeds are spreading to more locations every day.

Advertising is confusing. Verizon calls its entire network one thing, and AT&T calls its network different things in different places. So, through claims and counterclaims, both try to position their network as being the fastest.

Fortunately, both are speedy.

AT&T has an advantage over Verizon and Sprint for customers who like to make calls and surf the Web at the same time. They are the only carrier that supports this.

Or Unlimited Data?

Unlimited usage plans are another option. Sprint and C Spire offer unlimited data plans for iPhones.

Actually, T-Mobile also has an unlimited plan, but it doesn't sell the iPhone.

C Spire is starting to turn on many high-speed 4G LTE markets within its region, so it will be both fast and unlimited in those markets over the next few months. This is an advantage for its customers.

Postpaid and Prepaid

The prepaid iPhone is coming this season as well.

You know all about the postpaid iPhone. That's what you get with the typical plan. Prepaid, however, is new for the iPhone market.

Rumor has it networks like Virgin Mobile (owned by Sprint) and Cricket (owned by Leap) will get into this new segment.

To tell you the truth, I expect to hear of other carriers joining the iPhone parade as the next few quarters pass, both on the postpaid and prepaid side.

So, as you can see, choosing the right network for your needs is the most important part of this iPhone purchase.

The iPhone is basically the same device from carrier to carrier. Your decision should be to find the carrier for you and the best plan as well.

Remember -- signal strength first, then fast or unlimited.

It's always important to understand which carrier offers the best signal where you spend time. That can change from year to year, so keep current.

My Pick of the Week is AT&T for setting a new sales record for the first weekend following an iPhone launch.

On Monday, AT&T announced that it had set sales records both on the first day of pre-orders for the iPhone 5 and over the entire first weekend.

Do you remember when AT&T had exclusive rights to distribute the iPhone in the U.S.?

Everyone thought when it became available from competitors like Verizon, Sprint and C Spire that AT&T would lose business.

Well it looks like all that speculation was wrong. AT&T is still selling new iPhones like crazy.

That's right, AT&T is not selling fewer iPhones -- it is selling more. In fact, it is selling quite a few more, breaking all sales records.

Maybe it's AT&T's ability to talk and surf at the same time. Maybe it's the company's huge 4G coverage area. Maybe it's because it doesn't force customers to switch to shared data plans. There are many reasons, but the fact is, AT&T is selling more iPhones, not fewer.

Not shabby. Not shabby at all. 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

E-Commerce Times columnist Jeff Kagan is a tech analyst and consultant who enjoys sharing his colorful perspectives on the changing industry he's been watching for 25 years. Email him at jeff@jeffKAGAN.com

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

http://www.ecommercetimes.com/story/Why-Cablevision-Is-Tweaking-Its-Own-Nose-76145.html

http://www.ecommercetimes.com/story/76145.html

Why Cablevision Is Tweaking Its Own Nose

By Jeff Kagan

E-Commerce Times

09/13/12 5:00 AM PT

Cablevision recently invested in upgrading its cable television network to improve the quality of service. Now it is launching a curious marketing and advertising campaign to let customers know about it.

It wants to shine up its Optimum brand. Good idea, but the funny part is, it is poking fun at itself in the process. Why -- and will it work?

My Pick of the Week is C Spire Wireless, which is launching its 4G LTE network.

Competition Picking Up

First of all, if a company makes things better, shouldn't customers be able to figure this out on their own? Yes, of course -- but that can take a long while.

Remember when Sprint was a long distance company? In the 1990s, it improved the quality of its networks, but it took customers years to figure it out on their own. That's why Sprint started to run those "pin drop" commercials, emphasizing how clear its calls were.

You have to give customers a nudge before they'll realize something has changed. So Cablevision is poking fun at itself by talking about how bad its quality actually was. It is playing right into the customer's hands for cable television.

Customers have always complained about the quality and reliability of television service, and the people they dealt with on the phone or in person.

This problem is not just a Cablevision problem, either. Every cable television company suffers the same problem, whether it is Comcast Xfinity, Time Warner, Cox, Bright House or any other company in the space.

One reason for that has been the lack of threat. There's been no competition. Now that there is, the cable companies need to shine their dull image in the marketplace -- which is why Cablevision is doing this.

It is going to be spending quite a bit on advertising and marketing to shine its image and change customer perceptions about the Cablevision and Optimum brands.

In fact, Time Warner is beginning its own new marketing campaign. It is trying to get closer to the customers as well.

However, this has already been tried, hasn't it? Isn't that why the new Cablevision Optimum brand and Comcast Xfinity brand were created?

I guess the reason they originally took this route was that they hoped these new brands would steer customers' attention away from the older and more tarnished Cablevision and Comcast brands.

Did it work? I guess not. They introduced these new brands before they were ready. So they are still tweaking the hell out of them, trying to make them work.

Instead of improving service, they just created new brands too soon. Now it looks like the result is tarnished new brands joining old brands.

Just Wants to Be Liked

That's why Cablevision is trying something new. It is being honest with the customer. Hmmm, that's interesting. Could it work?

I have consulted with many companies and listened to their stories. I have to say this new spin could indeed work, if it is ready.

Kristin Dolan is the wife of Cablevision CEO James Dolan. She was promoted at the end of last year to senior executive vice president of product management and marketing. Try squeezing that mouthful onto a business card.

Dolan had been unhappy with the previous strategy , which was more like "change the name and hide the strategy." She has been thinking about new ways to connect with customers.

Dolan said this new campaign isn't going to sugarcoat anything but will follow investment in improved services. Sounds good so far. Has service improved?

The FCC said broadband speeds at Cablevision have improved -- a big improvement over the previous year. That's good news. There is more to do, but it looks like it is heading on the right path.

I hope Cablevision keeps its eye on the ball and continues to improve service, or this marketing idea will not work either.

So what is the new marketing strategy? Simple. Cablevision is making fun of itself. It says it recognizes its problems and is working hard to fix them.

Customers will chuckle, but will they trust and buy is the question. If the service is actually improved and continually getting better, this might just work.

People really don't like dealing with telecommunications, according to Dolan. In fact, they hate it. I don't know if that is true, but it's not at the top of the list of fun or important things to think about.

Dolan just wants to get people to like the company. So these ads take a different twist -- they're humorous.

To sum up, the campaign's approach is that Cablevision has technology you won't spend too much time thinking about, because you have more important things to think about. Agreed.

Will it work? I hope so. We'll see. If it does, then it may be an idea worth considering by other companies like Comcast, Time Warner, Cox, Bright House, Dish Network and DirecTV who also need to reinvent their image in the customer mind.

My Pick of the Week is C Spire Wireless, which is launching its 4G LTE network.

C Spire typically offers deeper coverage within its region, and that looks to be the case this time as well -- more cities with more miles of coverage.

I like C Spire's marketing campaign. It is a fresh new idea in the wireless industry with its PERCs reward program and SCOUT, its personalized tool to recommend apps, movies, books and music.

By the end of October, C Spire 4G LTE will be in 31 markets with more to come.

By the end of this year, it will have an additional six markets -- and more to come next year.  

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

E-Commerce Times columnist Jeff Kagan is a tech analyst and consultant who enjoys sharing his colorful perspectives on the changing industry he's been watching for 25 years. Email him at jeff@jeffKAGAN.com

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

http://www.ecommercetimes.com/story/Carrier-Snapshots-Where-Theyre-At-76088.html

http://www.ecommercetimes.com/story/76088.html

OPINION

By Jeff Kagan

E-Commerce Times

09/06/12 5:00 AM PT

Labor Day has come and gone, and now it's time for the big end-of-year season to begin. Expect lots of new product announcements, starting with the new Apple iPhone next week.

It's all about what's new and what's coming next in wireless, telecom, television and technology. So here's a look at where several top companies stand on the growth Wave -- which of them are on the growth side, which are not, and what's coming next.

My Pick of the Week is Verizon Wireless, which deserves congratulations.

As is the case every year, my phone and email will be ringing off the hook in the next few months. Each company will try to position itself as a winner in the marketplace. Make no mistake: The marketplace is changing. That means leadership may change as well.

Once in a while, a disruptive company or technology is introduced. It seems to happen every year -- expect it to happen this year. Only some of today's leaders will stay leaders. At the same time, new companies will break out.

The Big 3

AT&T is the most profitable ever, even though it sold fewer smartphones last quarter. One reason is it didn't pay wild subsidies on as many smartphones, like the iPhone. It activated 5.1 million smartphones during the last quarter. That's down slightly from 5.5 million a year ago.

However AT&T is not losing customers. Rather, its customers are hanging onto their phones longer. AT&T added 320,000 new postpaid customers during the quarter. More than half of these were new tablet customers, which pay less than smartphone users. Tablets are hot going forward. As smartphones and tablets continue to rise, this profitable growth should continue.

AT&T and Verizon are the top two networks both in wireless and wireline.

Verizon said its wireless business won 1.2 million net subscribers. This is strong growth, as new subscriptions have slowed across the industry. Verizon should continue strong growth for its first two years after starting to sell the iPhone, as contracts expire. After that, its growth should be the same as AT&T.

Eight hundred eighty-eight thousand were postpaid. Profit at Verizon Wireless was also at its highest point, with average monthly fees for postpaid customers rising 3.7 percent to US$56.13. Verizon and AT&T are the top two networks both in wireless and wireline.

Sprint Nextel is the only competitor of the big three that still offers a popular unlimited data plan. It has a good 3G network and is upgrading to 4G -- just not as quickly as Verizon and AT&T.

So Sprint has to give customers a reason to buy from it. That's where unlimited comes into play. Service revenue grows rapidly. The company won 1.5 million iPhones during the quarter -- the same number as the previous quarter. Remember, with Sprint speeds are slower -- however, data is unlimited. Sprint is in third place in wireless.

The Strugglers

T Mobile, a unit of Deutsche Telekom, is not doing as well. It lost 557,000 postpaid customers during the quarter for a net loss of 205,000 customers. This is a record loss for the company -- not a good sign.

It just started selling unlimited data plans again, after moving away from them in the last year. Last year its unlimited plan slowed after usage crossed a certain level. This new plan should remain at high speeds. Will it help them compete? We'll see. T Mobile is in fourth place in wireless.

US Cellular is also struggling. It lost a record 48,000 postpaid customers. It won 20,000 prepaid customers during the same period. It ended the quarter with 5.8 million customers. US Cellular is a unit of Telephone Data and Systems.

What will it do going forward to start winning again?

MetroPCS is struggling too. It lost around 186,000 customers. It ended the quarter at 9.3 million. It is a provider of prepaid services. First MetroPCS must find out why it is losing business, and then it must start to grow the company once again. It has not done so yet.

It targets lower-income urban customers with a more basic service. It is starting to reduce prices on unlimited data. It is growing its 4G data network. The problem is that it is no longer doing well. Let's hope MetroPCS can turn it around.

Leap Wireless with Cricket is struggling and lost 289,000 customers last quarter. It has 5.9 million subscribers. It has not been able to turn the business around yet.

CenturyLink is the third-largest local phone company after Verizon and AT&T. It does not offer wireless across its region. It acquired Qwest.

Its local phone business is shrinking, as is the case with AT&T and Verizon. The difference is that AT&T and Verizon have strong growth in other business sectors like wireless, while CenturyLink has lost 234,000 local phone lines during the quarter.

What is its growth strategy going forward? It has 14.1 million access lines in the market. It is the third in the land line space after acquiring Qwest and Embarq, which was Sprint's local phone business.

Windstream is a local phone company as well. Not wireless. It used to be Alltel, but it split away from the wireless business. It has grown quite a bit through acquisitions over the last few years. Unfortunately, without acquisitions, there does not seem to be any growth. It lost 29,000 customers during the quarter. It has 2.9 million phone lines today.

What will Windstream do to keep growth up going forward?

Frontier Communications is a smaller local phone business. It lost about 67,000 customers from the last quarter. It ended the quarter with 3.1 million residential lines. Once again, it is on the shrinking side of the Wave.

Cable Contenders

Comcast is the largest cable television company, and was always growing and adding customers. That seems to be slowing. As it is losing cable television customers, it is adding others -- like 158,000 phone customers using its VoIP service.

The cable television business is changing. New competitors and new technologies are coming in and transforming everything. Big competitors like Google TV and Apple iTV, as well as Internet television from a variety of competitors, are putting quite a bit of pressure on Comcast.

Will they continue to do well going forward? How they will change going forward is the question.

Time Warner Cable, the second-largest cable television company, added 45,000 residential phone customers.

It has 5 million customers across the U.S. Time Warner is losing traditional cable television business as well. What will its growth strategy be going forward -- and will it work?

There are so many more wireless and wireline networks, cable television, IPTV and TV competitors, smartphone, tablet and handset makers, and so on. This could be a very busy end of year.

The big questions: Who will lead? Who will follow? Why? and What's coming next?

As you can see, things are changing. The service provider side of the business will look completely different in the next year or two. The services offered, in many cases, will be new as well.

This means great opportunities and great risks. The moves providers make in the next few months will play an important role for them going forward.

Remember, every year at this time, things start to get hot. I expect this year will be no different. Let's keep our eyes on what the networks and handset and tablet makers do going forward.

Customers, investors and the companies themselves will have a helluva time the next few months.

My Pick of the Week is Verizon Wireless, which I congratulate for hitting its 1 million retail mark on it's 1-year-old trade-in program.

If you're like me, you bought a number of new wireless phones over the years but never knew what to do with the old phones. Typically, you tossed them if they didn't work any longer, or they were left in a desk drawer never to be seen again.

Verizon Wireless has helped to keep the equivalent of 140 tons of waste out of landfills and 436 tons of carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere.

Verizon says this is equal to the amount of electricity it would take to power 49 houses for one year.

Hey, on the other hand, could you power my home for the next year? Summers down here in Atlanta are hot!

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

E-Commerce Times columnist Jeff Kagan is a tech analyst and consultant who enjoys sharing his colorful perspectives on the changing industry he's been watching for 25 years. Email him at jeff@jeffKAGAN.com

http://www.ecommercetimes.com/story/Stop-Playing-Favorites-Handset-Makers-76041.html  

http://www.ecommercetimes.com/story/76041.html

OPINION

Stop Playing Favorites, Handset Makers

By Jeff Kagan

E-Commerce Times

08/30/12 5:00 AM PT

C Spire Wireless vs. Verizon Wireless and AT&T Mobility sounds a lot like David vs. Goliath. Except this time Goliath holds all cards, making it difficult for David to compete in the new 4G world. So why do Verizon and AT&T get smartphones before other carriers, anyway?

This system is broken. And if it's not fixed, all smaller companies and consumers are at risk of paying higher prices, seeing less innovation, giving and receiving poor customer service, and undergoing more governmental scrutiny -- things I think we all want to avoid, even Verizon and AT&T.

First on the Block

This new wireless problem is all about handsets -- who gets them first and why. The current way of getting handsets to the market may not be illegal, but it is wrong.

It puts hot new handsets in the hands of Verizon and AT&T first. They don't complain. It keeps them growing strong because customers chase the new handsets. This puts significant stress on smaller competitors in the new smartphone world as they try very hard just to compete.

In this new smartphone world every carrier needs access to the same hot new technology at the same time. Without that, the larger companies get a competitive advantage.

Is that fair? Fixing this is the only way all networks will survive.

Verizon and AT&T already have about 70 percent of the U.S. market share. They are the big dogs in the industry. When they talk, handset makers listen.

And it seems handset makers are afraid to treat every carrier equally. Do they fear selling fewer handsets to the majors if they treat every carrier the same?

At this point the majors may not even have to be exerting any pressure, yet they are still getting the benefits. This is the way the industry has grown over time.

This was not as important a few years ago with regular handsets, but it is today in the smartphone world.

Spectrum Rich, Spectrum Poor

There are many carriers in the remaining 30 percent of the market. Carriers like Sprint Nextel, T-Mobile, C Spire, U.S. Cellular, Leap Wireless with Cricket and others.

Today, getting new smartphone technology quickly is key to every carrier's survival.

Kathleen Ham, VP of federal regulatory affairs of T-Mobile, says as they transition to the 4G LTE network, spectrum is a key part of the strategy  and survival of every carrier.

It's the duty of regulators to ensure we don't end up with a market of spectrum haves and have-nots, she said.

And looking at today's marketplace that seems to be the way we are heading, doesn't it?

The problem is that AT&T and Verizon traditionally get the hot new handsets first, but why?

There is no real reason. And there is no real need. But getting them first is a competitive advantage they have over every other competitor.

The Rural Carrier Association is also concerned about this issue, as it represents many smaller carriers wrestling with the same problem. The RCA has been very active and concerned trying to make sure the marketplace is healthy going forward.

Cutting edge technology is key to success. Without equal access to new tech, companies struggle. That fights against customer choice and a healthy industry.

It's a two-part battle. Even if carriers have access to spectrum, they still need new 4G handsets to make it all work and attract customers.

Why does it take so long for new handsets to reach smaller competitors?

A Simple Solution?

To remain competitive and successful, all carriers need access to all new handsets at the same time. That is fair to all carriers and all customers.

It seems that handset makers don't want to tick off the big guys. That's where they sell most of their handsets. They are the largest. But this hurts smaller competitors.

The good news is this problem may be very simple to solve.

The truth of the matter is customers are not going away. If new handsets are only available on AT&T and Verizon, that's were they will shop.

However, if new handsets were simultaneously available on all the networks,then just as many handsets will be sold among them all.

Customers would choose based on the carrier. Isn't that healthier for the industry?

That's all the handset makers should need to hear.

Sure, Verizon and AT&T may lose a little market share. That's why they won't be for this approach, but smaller carriers would gain in a fair fight. That would make the industry stronger.

There is a benefit to Verizon and AT&T and every competitor as well. A fair and competitive marketplace is under less regulatory scrutiny. Everyone should care about that.

Why should only the big guys get the breaks? What about everyone else?

Sure, I want AT&T and Verizon to be winners and remain healthy, but I also want all the smaller players to be so as well.

AT&T and Verizon can stay at the top. They earned it. However, there is no reason to hobble the smaller competitors. In fact, the big players should hope the smaller players continue to succeed.

The Specter of Regulation

This fair approach would keep the government regulators out of the hair of networks and handset makers. It would let all companies compete on an even footing. It would keep the industry healthy, and isn't that what we really want?

In a competitive environment like wireless, especially as we move from 3G to 4G, every carrier needs new, next-generation handsets to remain competitive.

Today we are at a critical juncture as the wireless industry evolves to smartphones and fast data networks.

We have to structure the marketplace correctly going forward or risk having the U.S. government step in. I think that is something the wireless industry would prefer not to happen.

So the question is simple -- which way is better?

This industry problem can be fixed without the government stepping in and it should be if all the players understand what is at stake.

Companies like C Spire would love to have more new 4G handsets than the few they struggled to get so far.

C Spire has brought this issue to the courts and the FCC asking for help.

This is where we stand today. We are at a fork in the road. We must choose the right path, right now, to ensure a free and open marketplace for every carrier and handset maker, large and small.

I believe the best buying decisions should have more to do with customer care, network quality, reach and innovation, not who has the newest phones.

Handset makers should focus on delivering new 4G handsets to all carriers at the same time.

The way the handset market operates must change in this new smartphone world. It's time every competitor has an equal footing. It's time to turn this into a fair fight. 

My Pick of the Week is T-Mobile's unlimited wireless data plan, which follows Sprint's and C Spire Wireless'. It starts in September.

Until recently, all the players in the wireless industry were pretty much in-line. In recent years, a line has been drawn down the middle, and companies are choosing which side they will compete in.

Carriers must choose if they will be limited or unlimited wireless data, and pre-paid or post-paid.

There are real differences in the market, and carriers who position themselves well can win.

T-Mobile's problem is they were not doing well competing with Verizon and AT&T over the last several years.

They have lost more than 1 million net customers in the first half of 2012. They were on the wrong path, so something had to be done quickly. Some carriers do well, while others struggle.

Sprint, like several others, has struggled. Sprint has lost more than a half million customers over the last year and a half.

At the same time, Verizon and AT&T have grown.

I commend T-Mobile for making such a bold move, which may turn out to be successful for them. Let's hope.

They hope that by jumping to the unlimited side, things will be better. We'll see, but if they market and advertise correctly, there is no reason they won't be. 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

E-Commerce Times columnist Jeff Kagan is a tech analyst and consultant who enjoys sharing his colorful perspectives on the changing industry he's been watching for 25 years. Email him at jeff@jeffKAGAN.com

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

http://www.ecommercetimes.com/story/Why-Verizon-Was-Allowed-to-Buy-Wireless-Spectrum-and-ATT-Wasnt-75984.html

http://www.ecommercetimes.com/story/75984.html

OPINION

By Jeff Kagan

E-Commerce Times

08/23/12 5:00 AM PT

Why did Verizon Wireless just get regulator OK to acquire wireless spectrum from cable television companies, whereas AT&T got turned down in its attempt to acquire T-Mobile for the same reason? And why is it still important for regulators to solve the growing wireless data spectrum crunch?

The truth is, we are running out of available wireless data spectrum. The sudden explosion of smartphones and so many apps is changing the wireless industry.

On one hand this is an amazing growth opportunity even as we outrun the wireless data spectrum we have. On the other hand, this shortage will have a negative impact on every carrier and every customer who uses apps on smartphones.

Right now things seem fine, right? Don't be fooled. We are in the calm of the center of this wireless data spectrum hurricane.

Eye of the Storm

The reason the pressure is off of AT&T is because last year the iPhone started being sold on every major carrier, like Verizon Wireless, Sprint and even C Spire Wireless. And over the next few years, more carriers will offer the iPhone. That has created a period of calm.

That gives AT&T, and in fact every company, a little breathing room to solve this brewing crisis, which will come back sooner rather than later.

The FCC and United States Department of Justice said no to the AT&T T Mobile merger because it was more than just a spectrum deal. It would also take one major competitor off the playing field.

At this point in the wireless industry, after years of acquisitions and mergers, there are few wireless carriers left.

In fact, AT&T and Verizon together already account for 70 percent of the marketplace. The other 30 percent is split up among a number of other carriers, like Sprint, T-Mobile, C Spire, US Cellular, Tracfone and several others.

So the proposed AT&T deal would have done two things. It would give AT&T spectrum, which likely would have been approved, and it would take T-Mobile off the competitive playing field, which was why it was not approved.

Verizon's Play

The Verizon acquisition of the cable television wireless spectrum was also sticky. It was not an acquisition, but still Verizon and Comcast had taken this way too far. Example: You could walk into a Verizon Wireless store and buy Comcast television.

Two arch competitors now playing nice? That is not good for the competitive playing field. And it would have gotten worse over time.

This was one of several important issues that regulators just could not ignore. The negotiations between Verizon, Comcast, SpectrumCo and the U.S. regulators tried to iron out these issues.

The regulators now say they have done this, so the acquisition of spectrum can occur.

Remember, this deal is only about the acquisition of spectrum. It is not an acquisition of companies. The companies are still in place as always.

So that's why Verizon its deal while AT&T did not.

Room for Maneuver?

This spectrum gives Verizon some wiggle room, but just some.

The wireless data spectrum shortage problem is still real, still growing and will still have a negative impact on the entire industry.

That's why it's very important for the industry players and U.S. government regulators to develop a short-term and a longer-term solution to this growing problem.

This cannot be ignored or every customer and every carrier will struggle like AT&T did in the first few years of this iPhone and smartphone revolution.

Additionally, the solution cannot just be for carriers to acquire spectrum for themselves. In that case there will be winners and losers, and fewer competitors will have a serious impact on the competitive playing field, prices and quality.

What to Do?

So what solutions have we kicked around lately?

Remember the Lightsquared strategy  last year to be part of the solution? Why can't we have more solutions like that? This company wanted to build out a national wireless data network and sell access to all the carriers. Made perfect sense until the whole thing fell apart. Actually, I don't think AT&T and Verizon even liked the idea, but Sprint, C Spire and many others did.

What about another idea like Lightsquared? Even some kind of industry-wide partnership. It still makes sense.

There are other ideas, like one from a small company I spoke with last week called "Quantance." It's trying to unclog the wireless data networks by raising speeds on handsets. It's already testing on two major carriers, one in the U.S. and another in Europe. Sounds good, but still only part of the solution.

Another idea I have been talking about is a sure solution, short- or long-term. All carriers should pool their wireless data spectrum together, and all carriers can buy access to it. That gives all wireless carriers equal access to spectrum and the ability to compete.

Clock's Ticking

There are so many ideas. We must start acting on what's good for the entire industry before it's too late.

If we want to keep all the wireless carriers in business and competing in this new wireless data world, they must have access to spectrum. Every competitor, large and small, national and regional, has to have access to wireless data spectrum.

Either that or over the next few years all that will be available is just AT&T and Verizon. Now, if you are an executive from either of those companies, that sounds great. But if you want a large and healthy industry with many competitors to keep pricing low, innovation high and customer service good, that is a disaster.

So while AT&T and Verizon struggle to get as much wireless data spectrum to meet their rapidly growing needs, we should also pull the camera back, look at the entire industry, and develop solutions that will benefit every carrier and every customer.

That is the kind of solution we need today and into tomorrow.

My Pick of the Week is Barnes & Noble taking the Nook to Britain. This is the first time the Nook stepped outside the USA.

B&N.com will sell the Nook Simple Touch and Simple Touch with glow light. These are the company's e-readers. This does not include their tablet.

British retailers have not been named yet. Barnes & Noble will also be launching the new website in Britain.

The Nook has been a leader in U.S. markets, driving the transformation of the book industry. It has around a 27 percent market share of the e-book business in the United States.

Its big competitor is Amazon.com Kindle. It already sells in many countries around the world, and Amazon just announced it's now selling in India. Since Amazon.com is successful overseas, I think we can expect Barnes & Noble to be successful there as well.

This means there is a whole new world of opportunity out there for the company.

There are a number of smaller competitors as well.

I expect the next Nook tablet to be available later this fall. 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

E-Commerce Times columnist Jeff Kagan is a tech analyst and consultant who enjoys sharing his colorful perspectives on the changing industry he's been watching for 25 years. Email him at jeff@jeffKAGAN.com

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

http://www.ecommercetimes.com/story/Horrible-Problems-May-Be-Rolling-In-With-the-Cloud-75918.html

http://www.ecommercetimes.com/story/75918.html

OPINION

By Jeff Kagan

E-Commerce Times

08/16/12 5:00 AM PT

Why does Apple cofounder Steve Wozniak think cloud-based computing will bring "horrible problems" over the next few years? Apple is one of many companies driving the cloud revolution with its iCloud. Sounds crazy, but to tell you the truth I think Woz is correct -- to a point.

My Pick of the Week is AT&T Wireless Home Phone, a new AT&T Mobility wireless service that lets it compete against Verizon and local phone companies.

Out of Control

The more we transfer everything to the cloud, the less control we will have over it, according to Wozniak. That's true -- and that's just one of many issues that must be resolved before we embrace the cloud.

Pull the camera back to get a good understanding. The cloud story is about the struggle -- the push and pull between yesterday and tomorrow.

Companies like Apple, Google, AT&T and Verizon are at the forefront of this struggle. In fact, there are many companies entering this cloud space, including networks, device makers and Web companies, not to mention pure cloud providers.

Over the next decade, the cloud will provide an enormous opportunity for growth, investment, employment and innovation. It will become huge. However, there is lots of ground that needs to cleared first.

What exactly is the cloud? That depends.

If you work for a company and store your information online, that's a cloud, and you've been using it for more than a decade.

Over the last few years, when you buy books using an Amazon Kindle, Barnes & Noble Nook, or Apple iPad they are also stored in the cloud. This is relatively new.

The next version is storing your personal information and data in the cloud instead of on your hard drive. That means storing info online instead of on devices like your computer, smartphone and tablet.

Just think of the cloud as the consumer version of what companies have been doing for years.

As an example, with Apple you can store your information on your devices -- like iPhones, iPads and MacBooks -- or you can store it in the Apple iCloud.

If stored on the devices, it is more secure -- but it is not sharable. If stored in the cloud, it is shareable, but not as secure. It's your choice.

When your info is in the cloud, you don't have to back it up. Your device may be lost, stolen or broken, and your data is always secure on the server. That's unless there is a server problem. Is it backed up? Some are. Some aren't.

There are actually many differences like this that should be considered.

Security Nightmare

Apple and other cloud operators want you to start storing your stuff online. This is a big opportunity for them. It builds brand loyalty and reduces the chance you will leave for a competitor.

Did you know that in the Terms of Agreement, many cloud companies say you give up ownership to what you upload to the cloud? That's right.

Some cloud providers, like Amazon, are adding language to the terms of agreement saying your data remains your data, but make sure you check before you click AGREED.

There are many areas of concern, but the cloud is the future. It's about saving your work, photos, email, music, movies and all sorts of data, online.

This gives you access to it from all your devices. As long as you have the password, you have access. Then again, anyone with the password would also have access to all your stuff. That's another problem. Security.

These issues are what Steve Wozniak is warning us about. Woz says the next five years could be a nightmare.

Sure, this is a new and huge opportunity for some companies that want to cash in with innovative security ideas:

•Lifelock could offer an enhanced warning and protection service.

•Symantec Norton, Eset and McAfee can expand their virus protection software to include the cloud.

•Carriers can juice up their protection as well and use it in their marketing.

•Security in the cloud is an entire new business opportunity that will explode with growth.

So why are we playing in this cloud business anyway, since it has all sorts of security dangers? This is the same question we asked about going on the Internet years ago. We adapted. We bought security software and antivirus protection and created loads of passwords.

The cloud is the biggest business opportunity we have seen in a long time. The benefits to customers are that they can access all their stuff on any of their devices.

Early adopters are jumping into the cloud and storing all their stuff online. They will deal with the initial few years of problems.

Unfortunately, we live in a world full of bad guys looking to break in and steal our stuff. This is a whole new adventure and opportunity for them as well.

Into the Future

Over the next few years, we will get used to the idea of the cloud. We will use it more and more. Security will improve after some of these disasters Woz warns about.

Next we'll be signed up with various clouds. Then as we get overwhelmed with clouds, we will join one master cloud and store everything there. It will make our lives easier.

Look at how AT&T and Verizon have just entered the cloud space with AT&T Mobile Share Plan and Verizon Share Everything Plan.

You can get your own personal cloud being managed by these companies, and you can connect all your different devices to it. In fact you can include up to 10 of your family's devices.

The purpose is to have one single cloud account instead of a separate account for each device. This makes sense. Expect this from other carriers as well.

The cloud may be the future, but we have a long way to go before we get there. Today, the early adopters will jump onto the cloud. They will deal with the good stuff and all the problems.

I would suggest that if you are going to use the cloud, start slow. Be very careful when signing up and using a cloud to store your stuff.

Don't store all your personal and confidential data yet. Get through the perilous next few years Woz is warning about before you risk all your valued information.

Let's work through the next several years, addressing and changing the way we think of the cloud, ownership of data, security, and all sorts of other new issues.

So, the bottom line is Woz is absolutely right. There are major storms building as the cloud moves in -- privacy, personal information and security problems. But like it or not, I do believe the cloud is the future.

Let's take this journey in the cloud one step at a time.  

My Pick of the Week is AT&T Wireless Home Phone, a new AT&T Mobility wireless service.

AT&T lets you replace your home landline phone service with wireless service connected to your home.

The good news is this lets AT&T compete with companies like Verizon, CenturyLink, Windstream and Frontier to provide local phone service outside its home region.

It's a very innovative idea that lets AT&T enter new markets.

The bad news is this does not let landline AT&T customers switch away from their wireline service to the wireless service. But we're getting there.

I think it should, because AT&T and all local phone companies are losing landline business to competitors.

Self-cannibalization may sound crazy, but it would allow AT&T to keep some of the landline business it is losing every year to competitors. It would just be on the wireless side of the company.

Verizon has a similar offering, Verizon HomeFusion.

Sprint has two similar services. Its Cradle Point Router is similar to Verizon's, and its Sprint Phone Connect is similar to AT&T's.

This means that finally, after all these years, AT&T and Verizon will compete, head to head, with traditional landline phone service, powered wirelessly.

What will they think of next? 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

E-Commerce Times columnist Jeff Kagan is a tech analyst and consultant who enjoys sharing his colorful perspectives on the changing industry he's been watching for 25 years. Email him at jeff@jeffKAGAN.com

http://www.ecommercetimes.com/story/Sprint-May-Not-Be-Able-to-Match-the-iPhones-Pace-75860.html

http://www.ecommercetimes.com/story/75860.html

OPINION

By Jeff Kagan

E-Commerce Times

08/09/12 5:00 AM PT

As both Verizon and AT&T rapidly build out their 4G LTE networks in preparation for Apple's launch of the next iPhone this fall, Sprint Nextel is in a very distant third place. The big question is can it keep up?

The answer depends on a number of items, including what its customers want most. Do they want 4G LTE speed? Or do they want Sprint, even though it's on the slower 3G net? That's the big question.

The answer is somewhere in the middle. Some Sprint customers will drift to Verizon and AT&T. The question is how many? And will this become the next Sprint problem?

My Pick of the Week is Sprint's plan to make lemonade out of lemons when Apple's next iPhone comes out.

A Gentle Breeze

Over the last few decades, I have followed Sprint. I have always liked the people, the innovation and the technology. However, Verizon and AT&T keep pulling farther ahead.

Until it fell off the tracks several years ago, Sprint was actually one of the leaders in wireless. It was always pushing the envelope and regarded as a trendsetter, innovator and industry leader.

So what happened?

Well, plenty actually. Customer care took a hit. Sprint acquired Nextel. It needed more wireless spectrum, and it made several efforts to get it before finally starting Clearwire.

Over the last decade, Sprint has gone through several CEOs and seems to have lost its way. Now customer care has improved, but it is closing Nextel, and Clearwire is struggling.

Sprint has made attempt after attempt to restart its engines, but it has failed to achieve serious growth.

The good news is during the last year or so, it finally seems to have some wind at its back -- some wind.

The people at Sprint work hard, but this gentle breeze is just not the kind of wind that will help the company grow and compete against Verizon and AT&T. Rather, it's just enough to stay alive.

Sprint's recent quarterly report was a mix of good and bad. Generally speaking, the company seems to be getting a bit stronger, but it looks very different. It's not only different from AT&T and Verizon, but also different from what Sprint was -- and that's the good news.

The question remains, is Sprint going to be strong enough to successfully compete against Verizon and AT&T over the next few years?

While weak recovery is better than the horror story of the last several years, you have to wonder where real growth will come from.

So what's next for Sprint Nextel?

Make Them Cheer

The iPhone is important, but it will not save Sprint, as many once thought.

What Sprint desperately needs is to update and strengthen its brand relationship with customers, workers and investors. It has been fixing the problems, but not the relationship with customers and investors.

How does it let the marketplace know about its accomplishments? How does it build on that success?

It relies on advertising, marketing and public relations, of course. Unfortunately, that's Sprint's weak underbelly.

It briefly ran an ad. That was good. But that was it -- and that's the problem. Spreading the good news is key to success. However, this is something Sprint just never really grasped.

The problem is Sprint simply does not know how to tout its wins -- how to get the crowd to back it and get the marketplace to cheer it on. How to get the adrenaline pumping.

This is not new --it never did. I have been saying the same things over the last few decades.

CEO Dan Hesse is the one who now seems to be turning the Sprint ship around. It's a very slow recovery, but at least it is heading in the right direction.

Before Hesse entered the picture Sprint was about to go over the cliff. Fortunately, he saved the company from that fate -- but unfortunately, the company is still on the edge and just not growing.

I think Hesse wants to do much more but is not permitted to by the Sprint board of directors. That's a large part of the problem.

Sprint has never really done a great job at advertising, marketing and public relations -- not like AT&T and Verizon have done. Maybe it never understood the importance of these initiatives in the business world.

That is hurting the company today.

There is an old saying that describes Sprint: If a tree falls in the forest and no one is there to hear it, does it make any noise? That's the problem.

There's Something About the iPhone

When Sprint had the chance to sell the iPhone last year, it was in a no-win position. It either had to take the device at a cost  of billions of dollars, or lose more quickly to Verizon, AT&T and C Spire Wireless.

Apple is actually part of every carrier's problem in that sense. It is putting the squeeze on, forcing every wireless network to pay big bucks just to carry the iPhone.

However, just like Sprint, carriers don't have a choice.

This is what I call "the Apple predicament" -- but that's for an upcoming column.

That brings us back to Sprint's next big problem: A new version of the iPhone will soon launch.

Many users are getting ready to wait in long lines to be the first to take advantage of its new speed and features. The media is jumping in revving up the marketplace. The next generation 4G LTE network is necessary for these features and speed, and that is Sprint's problem.

Sprint has started offering LTE only in about 15 markets, with nationwide coverage not expected until the end of 2013. Compare that to the Verizon LTE network already in 330 markets, and AT&T's in 47.

Both Verizon and AT&T are on aggressive growth schedules. How can Sprint compete against that?

Well, its plan is to use spectrum currently assigned to Nextel after it shuts down. Unfortunately, I understand that will not be available until 2014.

Clearwire is another source of spectrum. Two questions: Is its 4G compatible with the iPhone? Even if it is, the question remains: Is Clearwire enough to make a difference to Sprint?

Don't get me wrong. Sprint has plenty of spectrum. That's not the problem. That's its strength.

The problem is speed. Its 3G speed is slower than 4G. And with the PR wave from Verizon and AT&T about speed, and all the articles written about speed, it becomes the key factor.

So the worry Sprint now faces is how to cut down on customer loss to competitors like AT&T, Verizon and C Spire, due to their faster networks.

That is the next real problem.

If Sprint is not selling enough iPhones, it will start selling them through its prepaid Virgin Mobile brand. That's a different network. That will help, but that will not solve the problem.

So how can Sprint get back on the growing side of the wave?

We all want Sprint to succeed for its investors, workers, partners and customers. Heck -- I want to write good stories about the company once again.

So come on Sprint, get to it. Update your network's speed. Embrace your PR and marketing activity. Connect with the marketplace and your customers. Help your investors win.

So, what will Sprint do next? 

My Pick of the Week is Sprint Nextel's plan to turn lemons into lemonade when the new iPhone hits the market.

The good news is that its customers can get unlimited data; the bad news is, it's on a slower network.

When customers are buying the next iPhone, they have a simple choice: Do they want more speed or unlimited data? We actually want both, but in many cases we have to make a choice.

If customers want speed, and if they are in the updated part of the network, they can go to Verizon, AT&T or C Spire.

However, if they want unlimited wireless data, they can choose Sprint Nextel or C Spire.

By the way, C Spire Wireless happens to be the only carrier that offers both speed and unlimited data in its region.

A couple of years from now, all carriers should cover a good number of cities with high-speed data plans. By then, carriers will be preparing to roll out 5G. Today, however, you have to choose.

The question is which carrier is best for you today? Just a reminder -- when choosing, make sure you have strong signal strength where you spend the most time. Without that, the iPhone is just a paperweight. 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

E-Commerce Times columnist Jeff Kagan is a tech analyst and consultant who enjoys sharing his colorful perspectives on the changing industry he's been watching for 25 years. Email him at jeff@jeffKAGAN.com

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

http://www.ecommercetimes.com/story/Google-Fiber-Internet-TV-Will-Never-Be-the-Same-75799.html

http://www.ecommercetimes.com/story/75799.html

OPINION

By Jeff Kagan

E-Commerce Times

08/02/12 5:00 AM PT

This big bang may not seem like a big deal yet. Hell -- it's only in Kansas City. But you can be assured that every company in this space is looking very closely and measuring its next moves. The next few years could usher in a complete transformation of the traditional cable television model. What's the next step from Google in TV? That's up to today's competitors.

Last week, Google started selling a very high-speed Internet and television service in Kansas City. This service stands a good chance of blowing customers' minds and changing expectations. The question is, will Google get into this business and compete with cable television and phone companies? Or is it doing this just to make a point? Only time will tell. Even Google doesn't know yet.

My Pick of the Week Comcast Xfinity's much-improved customer service operation. You'll be surprised. Or maybe you won't.

Is Broadband the New Dial-Up?

Google Fiber is now turning the pressure up on current cable television and telephone companies. Most of us currently get a few megabits of Internet download speed. Google offers 1 gigabit -- about a thousand times faster. Incredible.

Not everyone wants or needs that kind of speed today. Tomorrow, however, is a different story.

This is how companies like AT&T and Verizon currently offer television. They call their services uVerse and FiOS respectively, but it is Internet Protocol Television, or IPTV.

Cable television companies like Comcast, Time Warner and Cox are at biggest risk. So are satellite companies like DirecTV and DISH. They do things the way they have done things for quite a while.

Telephone companies like Verizon FiOS and AT&T uVerse are at less risk, but I'll bet you every provider is watching this Google adventure very closely.

What I now expect, going forward, is that speed and interoperability from all providers will increase.

Google is telling us to imagine, a few short years from now, that you'll be sitting watching television with your children in your lap, and you'll be watching Google Fiber TV.

You'll be telling the kids about the good ol' days when everyone used a phone company or cable television company to watch TV and surf the Web.

You'll explain how back then there were big companies with slow-as-molasses Internet service and ordinary television programming that you overpaid for month-after-month. And as for choice? Huh. Forget-about-it.

That's when your precious child looks you in the eyes with a perplexed look and says, is that like Google TV?

Yes the way we watch television and get Internet is about to change. Actually it's going through a major transformation that most don't yet understand. A few years ago, the telephone companies joined the battle.

The big bang of this new revolution started last week, when Google Fiber went live in Kansas City.

We thought IPTV from the telephone company was a big deal several years ago, but it was just another competitor in the same space. It didn't change the world -- but this new Google service just may.

Google and Apple changed wireless, didn't they? Is TV next?

Warning Shot or the Real Deal?

Google delivers a very high-speed Internet connection, and hundreds of TV channels, including local stations and programming on demand in HD.

Customers also get a Nexus 7 tablet to use as a remote control and can choose between three packages of service. You can choose Internet, television or both. The most expensive is about US$120 per month. Reasonably priced.

Look at today's marketplace. Cable television companies compete against satellite TV and telephone companies. They offer telephone, television and high-speed Internet.

The basic differences are cable television companies offer a faster Internet connection under certain conditions, and telephone companies offer wireless phones and 60,000 hot spots nationwide in places like Starbucks, McDonalds and more.

This new Google service turns the industry on its head. The big question: Is Google going to continue on this track and become an Internet service and television provider? Or is it just trying to make a point here?

I think Google had planned on launching this to make a point, but there is an opportunity here if traditional providers don't act.

This is an entirely new business for Google. Today, I think of this as a threat. It's a warning shot fired across the industry.