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by Jeff Kagan ~ Tech Analyst
Wireless, Telecom, IPTV, Cable Television, Health Care Analyst and HealthTech Analyst
Columnist ~ Speaker ~ Author ~ Consultant ~ Market Research ~ Industry Analysis ~ Advertising, Marketing and Public Relations
Jeff Kagan offers analysis, opinion and comment on news and announcements in the Wireless and telecom industry, the Healthcare industry including mHealth, eHealth, Wireless health, Mobile healthcare and other areas. He advises companies on brand awareness, PR and advertising strategies and marketing. He provides competitive evaluation, customer insight, market strategy, product introduction guidance, review and more. Click here for more information www.jeffkagan.com
Analysis of high tech products and trends and the changes that are reshaping the industry
Jeff Kagan writes one of the most popular columns on E-Commerce Times (click here) which is part of the ECT News Network with 6 million readers and is carried on thousands of additional web sites.
Jeff Kagan's PICK OF THE WEEK (click here) included at bottom of columns highlights something new, interesting and exciting he discovered and wants to share with you.
NOTE: Jeff Kagan shares his opinions in his column which are written from either an investor perspective, a customer perspective or an employee perspective.
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Columns published in 2011 are below this list of headlines;
It's a Brand New Day for CenturyLink
Government Regulation Is Killing the Entrepreneurial Spirit
Sprint Nextel and LightSquared: Uh-Oh
Fasten Your Seatbelts - It's Going to Be a Wild IPO Ride
Lightsquared Hits a Brick Wall
Do Cellphones Cause Brain Cancer or Don't They?
The Issue Nobody's Talking About in the AT&T/T-Mobile Debate
The Mobile Merger Domino Effect
Visions of Android@Home Dance in Google's Head
Summer Reading: Will Fear of GPS Interference Doom LightSquared?
Stroke Survivors Can Come Back Strong - and Tech Tools Can Help
Wireless Health: What's in It for Doctors?
AT&T Sees T-Mobile Merger Through Rose-Colored Glasses
Get Ready to Grab the mHealth Wave
Note to TV Nets" Steer Clear of Music's Painful Path
Thumbs Up or Down for AT&T + T-Mobile?
Pre-Paid Wireless Has Finally Grown Up
Why Don't Doctors and Patients eConnect Yet?
The Fuse Is Lit for the mHealth Industry Explosion
How Nokia and Microsoft Can Make It Work
Telephone Company Investors Are Baffled
mHealth: A Funny Thing's Happening on My Way to CTIA
And Now It Begins: The Media Will Sour on the Verizon iPhone
AT&T, Verizon and Sprint Tell Different Truths
How IT Is Changing Healthcare for Better and for Worse
Riding THE WAVE to Success
4G Wireless: Truth of Fiction?
CES: Being There
http://www.ecommercetimes.com/story/Its-a-Brand-New-Day-for-CenturyLink-72860.html
http://www.ecommercetimes.com/story/72860.html
OPINION
It's a Brand New Day for CenturyLink
By
Jeff Kagan
E-Commerce
Times
07/14/11
5:00 AM PT
CEO Glen Post and the rest of CenturyLink's executives will have to brace for a slap in the face when they confront the reality of the new world they have entered. If they make one mistake, slap. If they miss one projection, slap. If they miss one goal, slap. Suddenly, every word they say will be closely watched, listened to and measured. The wiggle room they have enjoyed until now will be gone.
Now
that CenturyLink has completed its merger with Qwest, what is next for the
company and for the marketplace? The media, investors, competitors and others
are starting to ask me on a regular basis whether this will be successful.
In
my Pick of the Week, I want to say thank you for a great first year writing this
column.
I
have worked with many companies in the industry and always had a good sense of
the direction they were heading in. I have always shared my thoughts with anyone
who asked, including members of the press, who call daily.
So
far, I think CenturyLink shows a healthy growth curve and is a strong company.
That is the good part. However, it has now crossed over the line. It has become
large enough that the line in the sand and its world will be very different
going forward. Will it continue to win in this new environment?
CenturyLink
is not like other similar companies. It has quickly risen through acquisitions
from a quiet, pipsqueak of a company to the No. 3 Baby Bell in the United
States, right behind Verizon and AT&T (NYSE: T).
This
company is the newcomer to the space, while the other two have been there for a
long time already. That means the game has changed for CenturyLink. If it
recognizes things are now different, and if it handles them correctly, it could
remain a winner moving forward.
However,
if it tries to continue doing business the way it has till now, I am concerned
that it may run into some serious problems.
CenturyLink
must now act like a completely different company. In some ways, this reminds me
of several years ago when SBC acquired AT&T, Bellsouth and Cingular. It
suddenly changed its identity. While it definitely has some problems with its
model, it is continuing to grow.
This
first year is key. How CenturyLink acts, how it treats investors, customers, the
media, workers and analysts matters. Does it understand?
CEO
Glen Post and the rest of the executives will have to brace for a slap in the
face when they confront the reality of the new world they have entered. If they
make one mistake, slap. If they miss one projection, slap. If they miss one
goal, slap. That's reality in the big leagues today.
There
will be a sudden change in the way they do business now. Will they be easier to
work with or harder? Will customers like them more or less? What about workers
and investors?
Suddenly,
every word they say will be closely watched, listened to and measured. Their
comments will be compared to the competition and to what they have said in the
past. Their performance will be looked at much more closely than ever before.
The wiggle room they have enjoyed until now will be gone.
CenturyLink
was always a very quiet company. Going forward, that may not help it. It has to
be concerned with interest from outsiders.
Now
that it is the No. 3 Baby Bell, it will be in the spotlight. Will it embrace
that new world, or will it eat them up? That is the only question. It can't
remain the same. As it changes, will it improve or get worse?
If
CenturyLink is too quiet, it will be viewed as secretive. Just because no one
ever paid attention to it before doesn't change things. It will blow up in its
face very quickly.
Remember
how Sprint Nextel (NYSE: S) struggled a decade ago with this same problem? This
smaller and more private company had a hard time with the realities of keeping a
good public face in this part of the marketplace until Dan Hesse joined as CEO
and started to turn things around.
What
about CenturyLink's PR and analyst relations? Does the company understand the
wave of change that is upon it? Its executives will have to schedule conference
calls and briefings and meetings and keep everyone up to date. It will have to
put out regular press releases. Its public relations will have to improve
dramatically and quickly.
Why
is this important? Analysts and reporters are the minds and mouths of the
industry. Either you give them something to focus on or they will find something
themselves. Suddenly, CenturyLink is in the crosshairs.
One
way gives the company more control. The other way is simply reacting to negative
news. And once the negative stories get started, it is very difficult to turn
them around. They feed on each other.
I
think CenturyLink has an honest group of executives -- I just hope they are
ready. I have worked with many groups over the years. Some get it and others
don't, and the result can be either delightful or painful.
Do
you remember a book called The Peter Principle? It's about getting promoted time
after time until your latest promotion is finally over your head, and the
problems that come from that. The same thing applies here.
CenturyLink
is not a traditional giant Baby Bell. It is headquartered in a quiet southern
state. It has plans to expand beyond the traditional telephone business. It is
playing with wireless and television.
If
it is successful, it could reinvent the entire space, or at least the entire
company. If successful, it could become a vibrant and attractive competitor,
like Verizon and AT&T. If not, it will be lumped into the same struggling
slush pile that Qwest has been struggling in for years.
This
moment in time is CenturyLink's moment to define itself. After this passes, if
the image in the mind of the marketplace is wrong, it will have to spend a
fortune in time and money trying to correct it. It's much better to do things
right out of the gates for this suddenly new company.
As
my Pick of the Week,
I want to say thank you! I have been an analyst for the past 25 years, and this
is my one-year anniversary writing this column. I hope you enjoy reading it as
much as I do writing it for you.
Selecting
interesting topics is always fun. There is so much to sort through each week.
There are so many companies, news announcements, and important topics to
discuss.
I
have received so many emails and phone calls from readers. Some are comments on
stories I wrote. Others are ideas for the next column. Still others are
introductions from executives and people and companies wanting to get on my
radar. Even an occasional new client. I enjoy it all.
Not
all are happy. I often get emails from executives at companies who are tweaked
by some stinging comments. Remember -- the same piece of news can be positive
for some and negative for others. One example is when a company merges and
workers are cut. Investors love this move, but the workers hate it. Both are
equally important, aren't they?
This
column reflects my opinion and what's on my mind, and I always welcome hearing
from everyone with new ideas or comments about the other side of the story.
I
love hearing from you about how the tech industry is changing and getting
better. There are so many breakthrough ideas that affect us all. I want to learn
about them and share them with all of you.
Here's
to another great year. Keep in touch. Cheers!
http://www.ecommercetimes.com/story/72819.html
OPINION
Government Regulation Is Killing the Entrepreneurial Spirit
By
Jeff Kagan
E-Commerce
Times
07/07/11
5:00 AM PT
While regulation helps us on one side, it hurts us on the other. It cuts out the opportunity for us to succeed and to grow as entrepreneurs. We need entrepreneurs. They break the rules. They find the new opportunities. They create new markets. They create the next wave we all ride.
I
recently heard a couple of very interesting interviews on the radio -- both with
Bernie Marcus, one of the original founders of The Home Depot. They turned out
to be two of the most interesting and important interviews I have heard.
Marcus
said that government regulation has grown so out of control that it would make
starting and succeeding with The Home Depot (NYSE: HD) impossible today. What?
For
my Pick of the Week, I want to tell you about Google (Nasdaq: GOOG) Health and
the future of the segment.
Marcus
was a guest on both the Dennis Prager and the Michael Medved radio shows. We see
great success stories like The Home Depot and want to jump into the
entrepreneurial world of opportunity and get started, he told the hosts. That's
the good part.
However,
he also said that if he were going to start The Home Depot today, he couldn't
succeed because of government regulation. That stunned me. Is that true?
I
don't think most people realize what has happened to our world over the last
couple decades. How it has changed. Too much government regulation has become a
roadblock, according to Marcus. If that is true, then it means it's impossible
for countless entrepreneurial companies to succeed today.
That
means others will not have the opportunities these companies create -- like
workers and suppliers and advertising agencies and newspaper ad departments and
so on.
Over
the years, one by one, we hear of all these new regulations, and we feel the
government is looking out for us. However, we lose sight of the damage that
regulation is doing until people like Marcus shake up our thinking.
I
guess this is an example of the difference between feeling and thinking. The
truth is there are two sides of the coin. While regulation helps us on one side,
it hurts us on the other.
It
cuts out the opportunity for us to succeed and to grow as entrepreneurs. We need
entrepreneurs. They break the rules. They find the new opportunities. They
create new markets. They create the next wave we all ride.
However,
we have been building the walls higher and making it harder for new companies to
start and succeed.
How
do we start a fire without the spark of entrepreneurship? Do we really want to
cut out the opportunities that made America great?
Bernie
Marcus talks about a new group he is part of -- the Job Creators Alliance. This
is a new organization that is full of leaders like himself who are trying to
educate the marketplace and turn back the clock to the successful times we
enjoyed just a few short years ago... before its too late.
The
group has a growing list of leaders including Brad Anderson, CEO of Best Buy
(NYSE: BBY), John Mackey of Whole Foods and many more.
Bernie
Marcus and I both live in Atlanta, and I remember the early days when he and
Arthur Blank started The Home Depot. They were young and broke, and at first,
most of the boxes lining their store's shelves were empty. They were there to
make The Home Depot look bigger than it really was. It worked. They started with
one store, then added another and another.
The
Home Depot became an incredible success story. There are many other similar
stories. Consider Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL), Google, Facebook, and so on. Are other
incredible success stories doomed if we keep heading in the same direction? Yes,
according to Marcus.
That
is something we need to think about and correct immediately before we lose our
entrpreneurial spirit.
These
radio interviews were great, but they are just the beginning. This is an
important message. Bernie, you have to tell the world. Give more interviews and
speeches. Write articles. Write a book.
This
is such an important message that everyone needs to hear it before it's too
late. When I heard it from Bernie Marcus, it shocked me like a slap in the face.
Now it's my turn to slap you in the face.
Just
think about this important message and if you agree, act.
My
Pick of the Week is
Google Health. The idea is fantastic. Among other things, it lets users store
and manage health records in one central place, and they can share them with
family, friends or doctors.
The
only problem is Google Health is closing. Yes it is. Bye-bye. How can that be?
It's only been around for a few years. Will the promise of eHealth and mHealth
ever come to pass? The answer is yes, but it will take a little longer.
Google
was a great company to join in the effort. The only problem is it has grown and
matured and changed quite a bit over the last few years since it went public.
It
is no longer that young, entrepreneurial company willing to spend years
developing an opportunity if it can't be profitable from the start.
Remember
the good ole days when the world used Google to search, but it never made a
dime? Then it went public, and everything changed.
Will
Google Health ever come back? Yes, I think it will -- perhaps a few years from
now under a different name. This is the direction of the industry and the
opportunity. Google Health will come back when the marketplace is mature enough
to make it profitable.
That's
too bad. It's a real blow to this new segment of the industry, and we will
simply have to deal with it as it continues to grow and become relevant and
profitable over the next several years.
Many
other important companies that are also in this young space will have to work
harder. They will have to jump in and take up the slack -- companies like
Qualcomm (Nasdaq: QCOM) and groups like the Wireless-Life Sciences Alliance.
Google
may be bowing out, but there is still Microsoft HealthVault, as well as a
handful of other health information storage services.
So
don't worry -- even without Google Health, the future still looks as bright as
ever, but the path may sometimes be rough as opportunities come and go.
http://www.ecommercetimes.com/story/Sprint-Nextel-and-Lightsquared-Uh-Oh-72775.html
http://www.ecommercetimes.com/story/72775.html
OPINION
By
Jeff Kagan
E-Commerce
Times
06/30/11
5:00 AM PT
I was shocked to read that Sprint forged a deal with Lightsquared at this time. What about waiting to see if Lightsquared can solve the problem that has its back against the wall? Wouldn't that make sense? Shouldn't there be an order to things? Perhaps Sprint sees this Lightsquared deal as important in the less-than-bright future it is suddenly facing.
I
have been impressed with the recovery that Sprint Nextel (NYSE: S) has shown
over the last few years, but now it has struck a deal with LightSquared that
puts the cart way ahead of the horse.
Is
Sprint making a big mistake while trying to bounce back from another body blow
it just took? I'll take a look at how its future may be shaping up thanks to
these developments.
In
my Pick of the Week section, I'll you how Consumer Reports ranks the cable
television companies on customer service.
A
few years ago, Sprint Nextel was crashing and burning, until it hired CEO Dan
Hesse. Since then, it has managed to pull up in the nick of time. During the
last year, we have seen that recovery get stronger, although the company still
has a long way to go.
Suddenly,
it faces two significant new challenges.
The
first is a deal Sprint just cut with LightSquared, which confuses and concerns
me. Will this help or hurt it with investors, customers and workers going
forward?
In
fact, several clients have asked me to write a report and share my opinion about
LightSquared with them. This is not a typical company. It is a very interesting
company, with a very interesting history and two very interesting men running
it. Let me share a few thoughts with you.
Generally
speaking, I like the idea. I like the entrepreneurial spirit. This is not a
typical small business story. One interesting aside -- LightSquared is trying to
start out big and important instead of starting small and learning the way and
growing.
That
will be an additional challenge. That creates a lot of pushback from various
others in the industry, because when it launches, it will have an enormous
impact. So Lightsquared has to get it right -- I don't know whether it
understands that yet.
While
the company has been around for more than a decade, it was acquired not long ago
by Phil Falcone, who had been giving thought to the opportunity for several
years. Last year, he hired Sanjiv Ahuja as CEO, and the company was on the fast
track -- until it ran off the road with this serious GPS problem.
Sprint
is one of the industry's long time brands. Number three. It's had a rough
period, but it seems to be coming out of it. However, it suddenly faces a new
and serious challenge.
We
all thought Sprint would merge with T-Mobile, but now AT&T (NYSE: T) has
jumped in ahead of it. Now Sprint's future may be starting to look shaky again.
Maybe
that's one of the reasons it entered this deal with Lightsquared. It is, in
essence, a startup. It has a great idea, and there is a need in the marketplace.
However,
LightSquared is having a heck of a time getting past the fact that its
technology collides head to head with the GPS industry. Until it gets that
problem fixed, its future remains one big question mark.
As
good an idea as it may have -- and as much as the marketplace needs a solution
like this -- if it is delayed a year or longer, other new technologies will
enter the scene and Lightsquared's opportunity may fade away, unrealized.
This
company should be working with all its might to solve this important problem.
However, it also continues to make deals with other companies, as if there were
no question mark in the picture.
That's
the confusion I have shared with so many reporters who have interviewed me and
what I'm writing about in the report.
Sprint
is not its only partner -- LightSquared has struck deals with a variety of
companies. However, most of these other deals were struck before the GPS problem
raised its ugly head earlier this year.
So,
did Sprint enter this fast-and-loose deal because it was under the gun, thanks
to the AT&T, T-Mobile deal?
Let's
say the wireless merger does happen. I would then expect to see Sprint forced
into a deal of its own that we don't yet see. Either it will acquire, or it will
be acquired.
So,
as you can see, change is continuing to transform this space. Perhaps Sprint
sees this Lightsquared deal as important in the less-than-bright future it is
suddenly facing.
If
Lightsquared can solve the GPS problem, it might become a strong and growing
company. Maybe. No one knows yet. There is a lot of ground to cover first. Then,
if it can clear this one big hurdle from its path, it still faces the same
challenges as any startup.
That's
why I was shocked to read that Sprint forged a deal with Lightsquared at this
time. What about waiting to see if Lightsquared can solve the problem that has
its back against the wall? Wouldn't that make sense? Shouldn't there be an order
to things?
We
just don't know what the future will hold for these deals. Will AT&T and
T-Mobile be approved to merge? Will Lightsquared be able to solve its big GPS
problem that could stand in the way of its launch? Will Sprint merge with
another company? Will they all be successful?
I
may like Sprint and Lightsquared, but there are many serious questions that need
to be answered. How about not putting the cart ahead of the horse? Talk about
living life on the edge.
My
Pick of the Week is
Consumer Reports' rankings of cable television companies for customer service.
The
best in cable TV are DirecTV (Nasdaq: DTV) and Wow. The worst are Charter,
Mediacom, RCN and Comcast (Nasdaq: CMCSK).
The
best in phone service are Bright House Networks, Cablevision/Optimum and Cox.
The worst is Charter.
The
best in Internet service is WOW. The worst are Mediacom, Charter, HughesNet and
RCN.
Customer
service and customer care are two of the most important ingredients in a
company's success going forward.
The
rest of the companies are stuck somewhere in the middle. This should be a
wake-up call to all of them as the marketplace gets more competitive. Satellite
television and local phone company IPTV are making progress in their efforts to
compete.
What's
the secret to success? Scott Wise, the VP of customer care for Cox says,
"Creating a customer experience that is second to none is Cox's goal."
I think that is the key. Focus on keeping your customers and workers happy, and
then your investors will also be happy.
I
have worked with several, and trust me when I say they are not all created
equal. Increasingly, customers have the choice between one cable television
company, two satellite television companies, and if they are lucky, an IPTV
service from their local phone company like AT&T U-verse or Verizon FiOS.
They all have strengths and weaknesses.
Year
by year, the marketplace is getting more competitive. It is turning into a
customer-focused marketplace. That is the good part. That means increasingly the
customer is in the driver's seat rather than the company. Because of that,
companies have to focus on taking better care of the customer than their
competitors do.
So
congrats to the winners. To the losers: Wake up before you get hurt! As the
competition heats up, only the best will win.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Jeff
Kagan is an E-Commerce Times columnist and tech analyst following wireless,
telecom, healthcare and technology. He is also an author, speaker and
consultant. Email him at jeff@jeffKAGAN.com. Read the first chapters of his new
book Life After Stroke, now available at Amazon.com and Barnes & Noble.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
http://www.ecommercetimes.com/story/72727.html
OPINION
Fasten Your Seatbelts - It's Going to Be a Wild IPO Ride
By
Jeff Kagan
E-Commerce
Times
06/23/11
5:00 AM PT
It is important to widen our view. This is not just about Internet companies, like before. This next wave is about a wider range of companies in the innovative technology space -- oh and yes, that still includes the Internet. As the marketplace gets hot, there are real opportunities bubbling up. Know that there will be plenty of winners and losers. Understanding the difference is one key to success. Timing is another key.
It's
beginning to look like 1999 all over again. Ten to 15 years ago, the IPO craze
was amazing. As I said in many speeches, a great time was had by all. Everyone
seemed to win -- workers, investors, executives, even customers.
Over
the years, these waves rise and fall, and a new wave is beginning to rise. This
time, there are a few important differences. Understanding them will be the
deciding factor between winning and losing.
In
my Pick of the Week section, I want to tell you about how near-field
communication, or NFC, is about to roll out as the next mHealth wave.
In
the late 1990s, I got calls from a great many companies that wanted me to get to
know and understand them. They lined up to become clients. They wanted me to
follow them so I could write about them in my column, talk about them to the
media, and mention them in speeches, reports and books. After 2000, things
calmed down.
During
the last year or so, I think we can all sense that the steak is starting to
sizzle on the grill once again. Do you smell it? Is your mouth starting to
water? It should be. We may be about to experience a repeat of the heated days
of a decade ago.
Lately
my phone has been ringing much like it did in the late 90s. Companies are
introducing themselves to me. Young and old, large and small, they all want to
get on my radar. It's starting to be fun again.
There
are quite a few companies making quite a bit of noise. Who will be noticed? They
all want to rise above the crowd and become visible to the world. Only some
will. They want to become well-known brand names. They want to be known as
winners among investors, customers and workers.
They
may want to get attention to help them grow, or maybe to help them get acquired,
or attract investment. They all have different reasons, but they all want to
punch their way onto the radar for one reason or another.
To
tell you the truth, we are entering a time when that is all possible. We have
seen this happen before, several times -- and there will be more times after
this one. This ebb and flow is the way it works.
During
the last decade, the marketplace changed. Companies look different today, but
they are still interested in the same thing: growth.
Today
there are so many different sectors and so many new companies. Some of these are
profitable, and others are not. I expect the marketplace will get quite noisy.
Yes
-- it looks like we are getting ready to repeat the exciting 1990s all over
again.
It
is important to widen our view. This is not just about Internet companies, like
before. This next wave is about a wider range of companies in the innovative
technology space -- oh and yes, that still includes the Internet.
As
the marketplace gets hot, there are real opportunities bubbling up. Know that
there will be plenty of winners and losers. Understanding the difference is one
key to success. Timing is another key.
There
is real money being thrown around, and companies are lining up to play a role in
the new economy that is taking shape right now.
Public
relations will benefit. This is a great opportunity for the public relations
industry. There is so much confusion. So much noise. PR is so important to every
company.
PR
reaches out and touches the customer and the investor. If done right, it can
create a special bond. That is a key component.
I
was called by so many PR firms last decade. That is starting to happen again
now. Some want to brief me on a company. Others want to learn about the new
opportunities that are coming and how to win their share. Still others want to
learn how to solidify their relationships with their existing tech clients so
they can keep them as clients.
With
all this bubbling, there will be much business that will be won and lost. Just
like before, many companies will hit the target and do well -- and many others
will miss.
Whether
they will be successful or not depends on things other than just how well their
products work. It also depends on how well they get their messages out. How much
excitement they generate in the marketplace. Whether investors and customers
even hear about them.
That
is the challenge. Brace yourself. Things could start to get loud and chaotic
from this point forward.
The
next IPO era is beginning. Several high-profile companies have already jumped
in, and the water is feels great again. Prepare yourself. There will be many
more high-profile IPOs coming.
There
will also be many smaller IPOs that most people will never have heard of. Some
will be a good investment, and others won't. Much depends on whether they become
well known.
Excuse
me now... I am having another flashback to the 1990s. This is going to be a
golden opportunity for companies and for investors, IF your choice and your
timing are both right.
My
Pick of the Week is
a new development: how near field communication is about to roll out as the next
wave in the young and rapidly growing mHealth industry segment.
NFC-enabled
products are coming to the healthcare industry, and we will start to see them in
the market this year.
Glucometers
will read our blood levels, skin patches will communicate information during a
visit to the doctor, sleep tracking will provide important feedback, and
monitors will watch for post-op infections.
There
is an incredible rush of health-tech ideas and innovations coming. I have been
briefed by many, and taken together, they might make you think we're living in
the future already.
There
are even more ideas in the discussion stage, and many of them will be developed
and could be in the market sooner than you expect.
Imagine
the sign-in process at the doctor's office being updated with NFC-enabled
smartphones, allowing the entire process to happen with a touch of your phone
screen.
Imagine
a chip implanted in your arm that stores your identification and medical
history, giving every doctor and hospital the ability to learn about you and
instantly provide you with better care.
Imagine
innovations like this in at-home diagnostics, pharmacies, fitness, emergency
work and more.
I
have been briefed by so many interesting and innovative companies on what is
coming next. It is truly a very exciting space that we are just entering.
As
smartphones get smarter, we will increasingly use these devices to manage our
lives, including our health and finances.
Ever
hear of using your smartphone as an e-wallet with NFC? Welcome to tomorrowland.
http://www.ecommercetimes.com/story/Lightsquared-Hits-a-Brick-Wall-72654.html
OPINION
Lightsquared
Hits a Brick Wall
By
Jeff Kagan
E-Commerce
Times
06/16/11
5:00 AM PT
Lightsquared should acknowledge the GPS problem and instill confidence it will fix it, but it should also be talking about the solution it will bring to the crowded marketplace. Capacity. Industry growth. Increased competition from smaller players. The investors it will please. The customers it will serve. The workers it will hire. There is plenty of good that will come IF Lightsquared can solve the problem.
This
is the question I've been most asked by the media this week: Is Lightsquared
going to work or not? Let me start by saying that I think this company sees a
problem and it could come up with the right solution. However, there is no
answer yet -- so it seems it has reached a brick wall. What happens next? Is
this the end of the road for Lightsquared?
In
my Pick of the Week section,
I'll tell you about a new book -- Search & Destroy: Why You Can't Trust
Google Inc. by Scott Cleland with Ira Brodsky.
The
June report on Lightsquared that we have been waiting for is in, and it doesn't
look good for the company. The technology it uses does impact the spectrum of
the GPS industry, the report concludes. So even though we need a solution to the
spectrum problem, we cannot allow this company to interfere with another
industry. What's the answer?
First
things first. Let's remember, Lightsquared is a brand new company. It is just
building and testing its network, so there are no customers or employees at
risk. The risk is for the investors who may have put up a few billion dollars to
build it.
If
it will harm another industry, why not just shut it down? Well, the truth is we
need Lightsquared -- or a company like it, anyway. We have a bandwidth shortage.
Until
four years ago, everything in the wireless industry was going along just fine.
The smartphone sector was growing at a manageable rate. Companies like RIM were
growing and doing fine. Everyone was growing and happy.
Then,
four years ago, Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) changed the industry with the iPhone, in
much the same way it changed the music industry with the iPod. It was so
successful it enticed Google (Nasdaq: GOOG) to jump in with Android, and the
race was on.
Two
non-wireless companies are now leading in the wireless handset race. Imagine
that. Suddenly, the smartphone sector is exploding. Apps grew from a few hundred
to a few hundred thousand over just the last few years. Growth jumped from 15
percent to around 50 percent. The industry is on fire.
That
sudden demand caused a big problem for carriers like AT&T (NYSE: T), Verizon
and Sprint: not enough spectrum for wireless data usage. AT&T Mobility has
been battling data logjams for years.
In
fact, that's why it wants to acquire T-Mobile. Actually, it needs to acquire
T-Mobile -- not for the company, but just to get its hands on more spectrum. But
that's another story with another solution.
This
is the problem that Lightsquared wants to solve. If it works, it will not only
provide a solution to large and small competitors, but also do very well itself.
However,
there is this GPS spectrum problem. There are countless well-known companies on
the navigation side who have weighed in with negative comments on the problem.
To
answer, Lightsquared held a conference call last week, which didn't do it any
good. Jeff Carlisle, EVP of regulatory affairs, sounds like a nice guy, and he
tried but made no progress. Don't get me wrong; it needs to hold these
conference calls. The industry needs to hear from the company. However, it needs
to make things better, and it didn't.
Whether
Lightsquared likes it or not, stories will be written, and analysts like me will
be called by the media for comments. Without the company's positive side of the
coin, all we will discuss is the negative side that we are asked about. There is
a positive side -- if it can solve this problem.
Lightsquared
needs to think about its PR -- and quickly -- before this whole thing spins out
of control. I have seen that happen too many times. I have worked in this
industry for 25 years and worked with many companies. I've witnessed many very
good and many other very bad PR moves. So far, Lightsquared is not handling this
problem well.
It
should acknowledge the problem and show it is working to fix it. It should
instill confidence that it will fix it. However, it should also be talking about
the good it will bring -- the solution it will bring to the crowded marketplace.
Capacity. Industry growth. Increased competition from smaller players. The
investors it will make happy. The customers it will solve problems for. The
workers it will hire as it grows. There is plenty of good that will come IF
Lightsquared can solve the problem.
Being
quiet will kill it. It's starting to happen already.
I
have been asked to write a book about Phil Falcone and his Lightsquared
adventure. While I have not yet said yes or no to the publisher, I have been
kicking the idea around, and there is definitely quite a bit to write about.
This is becoming quite a show.
How
it handles this growing problem will be critically important not only for
Lightsquared, but also for the entire industry. The U.S. needs to fix its
capacity problem, and quickly. Then Lightsquared needs to fix its problem and
build the network. Then it needs to start selling its service quickly, and it
needs to start building a true company. And it needs to do this yesterday. There
is no more time to play games.
If
Lightsquared doesn't step up, the wave of opportunity will pass it by, and it
will lose its chance at greatness. So what will be the next step? Will
Lightsquared recover and be successful, or will it become road kill on the
information superhighway as others pass it by on their way to the next great
idea? That is the question we are all asking today.
My
Pick of the Week is
a new book, Search & Destroy: Why You Can't Trust Google Inc., by Scott
Cleland with Ira Brodsky.
I
have been reading Scott Cleland's weekly column about Google so this topic is no
surprise, but it does cover it all in one place, and it does make you think.
What this book does is make an argument about Google that we don't usually hear.
We
typically hear of Google as a growth company. How it is reinventing the search
business and moving into many other areas, like wireless with Android. It also
has its eyes on many new areas like television and may eventually start to
compete with the cable television industry.
At
the same time, Cleland says there is a dark side to the Google growth story that
most are not aware of. He says this is a must read for anyone who wants to
understand the future of the Internet and the online economy.
According
to Cleland Google is so pervasive and dominant on the web that one can't really
understand the Web without understanding where Google is taking it.
He
says there are many books that tell the Google story from Google's perspective.
This is the first book to answer questions users most want to know about the
company. Questions like, can I trust Google? Do they respect property rights?
Are they a monopoly? Are they accountable to anyone? Are they as ethical as they
claim? Do they have a hidden political agenda? And many more.
These
are serious questions, and Cleland says the evidence is overwhelming that Google
is not the company it pretends to be.
This
reminds me of the fabulous growth story Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT) was until it
finally got into the crosshairs of the Government. I don't know when that will
happen to Google, but a young and successful company that keeps growing in
importance eventually gets seen as a threat. Amazing.
I
have used Google for years and love the service. However, this is another very
interesting side of the story that I was not aware of. See what you think.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Jeff
Kagan is an E-Commerce Times columnist and tech analyst following wireless,
telecom, healthcare and technology. He is also an author, speaker and
consultant. Email him at jeff@jeffKAGAN.com. Read the first chapters of his new
book Life After Stroke, now available at Amazon.com and Barnes & Noble.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
http://www.ecommercetimes.com/story/Do-Cellphones-Cause-Brain-Cancer-or-Dont-They-72617.html
http://www.ecommercetimes.com/story/72617.html
OPINION
Do
Cellphones Cause Brain Cancer or Don't They?
By
Jeff Kagan
E-Commerce
Times
06/09/11
5:00 AM PT
The bottom line is that we just don't yet know whether there is real danger. There are many studies that say "watch out." Then again, there has been no increase in brain cancer over the last 10 years. I have a feeling we will be dealing with more of these studies over the next decade until we can either finally say there is damage being done or conclude this was just a lot of hooey.
Last
week, I was on CNBC's "The Kudlow Report" discussing the new World
Health Organization findings that cellphones may cause brain cancer. Brian
Sullivan, the host, asked all sorts of questions about the WHO study and whether
this is a major problem for users, companies, investors and the industry.
Let's
take a hard look at this issue.
Then,
for this week's Pick of the Week topic, I want to tell you how Verizon Wireless
is jumping into the mHealth environment with Medco Health Solutions.
So,
do wireless phones cause brain cancer or not? It seems we've seen study after
study over the last decade raising that same question. Many researchers are
convinced the answer is yes. The industry, however, has answered with a
resounding "I don't know." That's where we stand. No one really knows.
None
of the past studies have seemed to slowed down growth in the wireless space. I
don't think the WHO's warning will either -- at least not until we have serious
medical problems.
If
there are so many different studies and claims that cellphones are a big
potential risk, should we change the way we use them? Let me tell you two
interesting stories -- then you can decide for yourself.
One
is about the Marlboro man -- the strong, vital cowboy sitting on his horse in
the cigarette advertising.
A
few years later that same man taped a new spot. He was withering away in a
hospital bed dying of cancer.
OK,
maybe we should have listened to the warnings earlier.
Then
there's the story about the sugar-free sweetener saccharin. There was a study
that suggested it was unhealthy. The entire business was injured. Investors,
workers and customers were hurt financially.
Then,
years later, it turned out the study's conclusion was wrong, and saccharin was
safe for human consumption. However, the damage was done.
So
what is the truth with cell phones?
NBC
contributor Dr. Nancy Snyderman, who also appeared on last week's "Kudlow
Report," advised reading between the lines.
No
one has ever proven cellphones cause brain cancer. In fact, with 5 billion
people in the world using them, we have not seen an uptick in brain cancers, she
pointed out.
I
think that is one of the most important points to keep in mind.
People
love their wireless devices. They say, "Don't take my cellphone away. How
will I stay in touch? I will be unconnected to my world." That is the
strong pull the wireless world has on us.
Users
forget that wireless is a new phenomenon. It was invented in the 1980s. It
became mainstream in the 1990s. Remember when we were all disconnected? Somehow
we all made it through life.
I
believe WHO's statement will draw attention, but it won't stop many people from
buying and using wireless devices and services. That won't stop until we have
actual proof instead of just claims. Wireless is a very important part of our
economy, our infrastructure and our society.
If
this concerns you, however, there may be ways to limit your risk:
•
Use an earpiece instead of putting the phone up to
your head. I mean an old fashioned wired earpiece, not Bluetooth. No radio waves
near the brain.
•
Understand how cellphones work. If you have a strong
signal, the phone works on low power and may be safer. If you have weak signal,
the phone cranks up the power and could potentially fry more of your brain.
•
Keep the phone in your pocket or your belt -- but even
that is not foolproof. If there is a problem, it is still close to your body,
just at a different spot.
•
Do you have a regular cellphone or one of those super
smartphones like an iPhone or an Android? Regular cellphones are not always
sending and receiving data when in your pocket. Smartphones are regularly
cranking away, even when you are not using them.
•
Keep wireless conversations short. The longer you hold
the device to your ear the more damage could be taking place. Want a long talk?
Pick up your old-fashioned landline phone -- if you still have one.
The
bottom line is that we just don't yet know whether there is real danger. There
are many studies that say "watch out." Then again, there has been no
increase in brain cancer over the last 10 years.
I
have a feeling we will be dealing with more of these studies over the next
decade until we can either finally say there is damage being done or conclude
this was just a lot of hooey.
I
won't stop using my phone, but I will use it more carefully -- just in case. Got
to go. My phone is ringing.
My
Pick of the Week
topic is how Verizon Wireless is jumping into the mHealth marketplace. It is
partnering with its own pharmacy benefits vendor Medco Health Solutions, and has
launched the Medco Pharmacy mobile app for smartphones.
There
are many pharma apps in the market today. Medco Health Solutions focus on
reducing costs for medications. It provides reminders to take your meds, it
warns of interactions, and it tells patients how much prescriptions will cost
with their health insurance plans.
This
empowers the patient. Oftentimes patients don't have a clue how much their
health services will cost until they finally get the bill after insurance pays
its share.
This
app tells patients their out-of-pocket expenses and finds the lowest-cost
alternatives, according to Mike Ross, Verizon Wireless VP of healthcare sales.
The
big challenge here was developing a simple app. Verizon Wireless is currently
making this app available to its workers who use the Medco Pharmacy. Plans are
to eventually roll it out to 100 million customers. This can be marketed not
only to Verizon Wireless employees and customers, but to all other Medco
customers as well.
Verizon
Wireless is trying, along with other major wireless players such as AT&T
(NYSE: T) Mobility and Sprint Nextel (NYSE: S), to successfully enter the mobile
health space. It is a huge opportunity, but there are still more questions than
answers.
These
are very early days in the mHealth revolution, and it is by far, one of the more
exciting parts of the rapidly growing and changing wireless, smartphone and
mobile app market.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Jeff
Kagan is an E-Commerce Times columnist and tech analyst following wireless,
telecom, healthcare and technology. He is also an author, speaker and
consultant. Email him at jeff@jeffKAGAN.com. Read the first chapters of his new
book Life After Stroke, now available at Amazon.com and Barnes & Noble.
http://www.ecommercetimes.com/story/72563.html
OPINION
The Issue Nobody's Talking About in the AT&T/T-Mobile Debate
By
Jeff Kagan
E-Commerce
Times
06/02/11
5:00 AM PT
Since AT&T announced its intention to buy T-Mobile, critics of the deal have been ganging up to express their concern. Many of their points are valid, and it's clear this deal must be thoroughly examined before it's allowed to go further. However, while debating this issue, no one is discussing the elephant in the room. Spectrum shortage continues to spread. The problem continues to grow over time.
The
latest news on the AT&T/T-Mobile merger comes from California. State
regulators said last Thursday they would launch an investigation into the
proposed merger. This is yet another worrisome problem for AT&T (NYSE: T) to
deal with in what is turning out to be a very squeaky deal.
This
merger proposal did not start out to be controversial, but that's what it is
rapidly turning into. The wireless industry has been weighing in, and the
negatives are piling up. I will discuss the problem and a workable solution.
Then
in my Pick of the Week, I want to tell you about IBM (NYSE: IBM) using their
supercomputer Watson to improve healthcare.
This
is turning into a real uphill battle for AT&T. There are valid concerns
being raised -- concerns that AT&T has not been able to answer.
Last
week, Leap Wireless was one of the latest companies to take a side. It's against
the merger. It says it would leave the U.S. market with just two wireless
giants, and that would harm competition. A familiar argument.
Two
weeks ago MetroPCS also weighed in. It too is against the merger. It said the
deal would overly concentrate spectrum holdings with one company, AT&T.
Sprint
(NYSE: S) was the first company to take an anti-merger position. It's
articulated strong opposition to the merger, saying it would be bad for the
competitive market and for Sprint as a company. Sprint says there are many
negative implications for pricing, choice and innovation.
One
by one, opponents are registering their complaints. It looks like the only one
this deal is good for is AT&T as competitors and suppliers weigh in.
Years
ago, spectrum sales by the U.S. government sounded like a great idea. Not so
much anymore. In the last few years, wireless data usage has exploded thanks to
smartphones. In this world, this original solution no longer works.
One
solution would be putting the spectrum together in one large bucket, and letting
every new phone access it no matter the carrier. That would give every carrier,
every phone and every customer identical
access and opportunity. If one is full here, then the phone will simply switch
to another.
That
makes sense once we realize the marketplace is much healthier with multiple
strong competitors. That would improve the connection for every customer. That
would strengthen competition as well. And isn't that what we really want?
This
may sound outrageous to some, but we cannot continue down this same path. The
road will get rockier as wireless data demand increases.
Like
with other mergers, this deal with AT&T and T-Mobile is not all good or all
bad. Depending on your position, there are good and bad parts to this.
The
good part is it will help AT&T Mobility, which has been choking with limited
spectrum. It will give them extra capacity. That will make AT&T and their
customers and investors happy.
However,
everyone else says they will be hurt by this deal. It continues down the broken
path. Mergers are OK when there are countless small competitors, but we have
been merging for years, and today there are very few and very large competitors.
In
deciding to approve or not we have to think of the benefits and the problems to
the marketplace, not just for AT&T and T-Mobile.
It
is important to be aware of the good and bad things that will happen to the
industry, to other competitors, customers and investors. This deal changes
everything.
I
have to ask this question: Will we be happy with the end result?
AT&T
says it is confident that it will win approval, but as more anti-merger activity
builds, one has to wonder if it will be blocked, or at least challenged and
changed. It is becoming clear it will not be approved as-is.
AT&T
hopes they will get what they need -- spectrum. That will help them, but what
will it mean for the rest of the marketplace? And what does it mean for the
future?
While
debating this issue, no one is discussing the elephant in the room. Spectrum
shortage continues to spread. The problem continues to grow over time.
Who
has the crystal ball? The problem is trying to see the future. We cannot tell
what the industry will look like just a few years down the road. It changes
rapidly and often. This always happens.
What
I am saying is that it is impossible to see what the future looks like. What
will the industry look like in another five years? We don't yet know, but we can
all agree it will look completely different than it does today.
As
you can see, the industry changes faster than any regulator can deal with. The
clocks they work on run at different speeds. Private industry clocks runs much
faster than government regulators' clocks.
Yet
we expect regulators to see into the future and make the best deal for the
consumer and the marketplace as well as the competitors and investors. It's an
impossible task.
That
is the world we are dealing with. We have seen so many mergers and acquisitions
over the last decade. There are fewer and larger competitors today. Each past
merger was managed as best we could. Yet the marketplace continued to rapidly
change.
The
same thing will happen here. We should not expect the regulators will know what
the marketplace will look like in a few years. No one does. Much depends on the
moves we make today, mergers and the new technology that is introduced.
So
what's the answer? Good question. There are many solutions, but there is no
clear answer. However, this spectrum shortage will continue, even if this merger
is approved.
Regulators
will try to address the problem areas. They will successfully address some, but
not others. Then the new problems we cannot even see today will start to appear
over the next few years. That always happens.
If
this merger is approved, it will change the industry dynamics, and that will
usher in another wave of change that we cannot fathom today. Sprint may be
acquired by someone else, or visa-versa.
We
can expect another wave of smaller mergers trying to fill the number three slot
better than Sprint could alone.
AT&T
needs the spectrum, not the deal. All the competitors who have voiced their
opinions have been against it. Now California, a very influential and powerful
player, has also raised concerns.
AT&T
is not concerned with the health of the entire marketplace. Nor should they be.
That's our job. It's up to us to look at the entire industry and guide it in the
right direction.
I
can't believe I am saying this. I have been a free market hawk for many years.
However, as the number of wireless competitors continue to shrink, we have to be
much more careful going forward.
We
have a growing capacity problem. So rather than just discussing AT&T's
needs, we also should be talking about the growing industry needs. After all,
it's not all about AT&T. It's about the entire industry. That means nearly
300 million customers, millions of workers from the entire industry, and
investors in this wide assortment of companies.
If
we solve the capacity shortage, AT&T's need for this merger goes away.
This
proposed merger is just a short-term bandage, and just for AT&T. What about
the rest of the industry that will suffer with the same problems going forward
if we keep ignoring the elephant in the room?
What
we need is to pull back the camera and come up with a real industry-wide fix.
In
my Pick of the Week,
I want to tell you about IBM using its supercomputer Watson to improve
healthcare. You remember the IBM Watson don't you? It became a TV star by
winning on "Jeopardy." Today IBM is using this supercomputer to
improve healthcare. That's right.
Imagine
going to your doctor and watching as he or she uses Watson to search databanks,
diagnose anything and prescribe the best treatment for you -- even with all your
existing conditions that make your treatment different and often more difficult
than that of your neighbor.
Today
doctors say they spend at least five hours a month reading medical journals to
stay updated. Watson can reduce or even eliminate that need. Remember when we
used to type a page on a typewriter or take hours or days researching something
that now takes seconds using search engines? Things change. Things improve.
IBM's
Watson is already digesting medical textbooks and information. It is a big
challenge for doctors to stay up to date. This is what the computer was made
for.
HealthTech!
Healthcare and IBM sound wonderful together, don't they?
http://www.ecommercetimes.com/story/The-Mobile-Merger-Domino-Effect-72532.html
http://www.ecommercetimes.com/story/72532.html
OPINION
By
Jeff Kagan
E-Commerce
Times
05/26/11
5:00 AM PT
If it happens at all, AT&T's purchase of T-Mobile won't happen in a vacuum. One thing always leads to another -- and often unexpected -- series of events. One strong possibility is that CenturyLink will jump in and acquire Sprint. Would this be good or bad for customers, investors, partners and workers?
The
wireless and wire line telecom industry is changing, again. Remember a decade
ago, when we had long-distance companies? Then the long-distance giants were
acquired by the baby bells. Next, the baby bells merged into three. Then the
wireless industry merged its way down to a handful of giants.
So
what's next? We are watching the next wave of industry-reshaping events setting
themselves up. Let's take a look. When this is done, the industry will not look
the same.
Then,
in my Pick of the Week, let's look at Nokia (NYSE: NOK) doing the right thing
and deep-sixing the Ovi sub-brand.
We
expected to see Sprint (NYSE: S) merge with T-Mobile. That would have created a
more stable three-way race between AT&T (NYSE: T), Verizon and Sprint.
However, AT&T jumped in to acquire T-Mobile instead, and that changed
everything. Now it looks like the industry will only have two big competitors.
Not as good.
So
what is next? Don't think this is over. This new AT&T/T-Mobile merger is not
only big for them; it will also set a whole chain of events in progress.
You
can't do one thing in a vacuum. One thing always leads to another -- and often
unexpected -- series of events.
One
strong possibility is CenturyLink will jump in and acquire Sprint. Would this be
good or bad for customers, investors, partners and workers?
If
AT&T and T-Mobile do merge, it will change the playing field and make it
very difficult for Sprint to compete and grow by itself. The two big players,
AT&T and Verizon, are both wire line and wireless, while Sprint is only
wireless.
At
the same time, we have been watching two of the smaller local phone companies,
CenturyLink and Windstream, grow through mergers in recent years. Of these two
companies, CenturyLink has shown more of a desire to grow into the wireless
space, with limited success.
Windstream
could also use a wireless business plan desperately but does not have one yet.
So let's focus on CenturyLink for this conversation.
Acquiring
Sprint would give it an instant third-place status in wireless. Combined with
its wire line business, it would start to look more like AT&T and Verizon,
which also offer both. In fact, it would become third in wireline and wireless.
Remember, it just acquired Embark, the wire line company, from Sprint and Qwest
(NYSE: Q), the No. 3 local phone company.
This
could be full of benefits for it and the marketplace if it knows how to run a
wireless company. Does it? Remember, Sprint was having lots of trouble and it
was CEO Dan Hesse who pulled the company out of a crash-n-burn dive.
If
done right, this merger could improve both CenturyLink and Sprint: a case of one
plus one equals three. It would be able to more directly compete for the entire
customer the way AT&T and
Verizon do.
This
would be part of the reinvention of the industry I talk about.
CenturyLink,
this smaller, very fast-growing and entrepreneurial company, may actually start
to shake things up in both the wireless and wire line sides of the business.
Suddenly
it's on the map. It's growing through acquisitions, and it's suddenly the No. 3
local phone company in the United States. That is impressive.
I
have worked with every baby bell and many smaller local phone companies and can
tell you that I have not seen such chutzpah in a long time. This is promising.
Of
course, this is not what Sprint wants to happen. It's continuing its recovery.
It likes the position it's in right now after years of hard work, sweat and
tears. However, if AT&T and T-Mobile do merge, Sprint may have to do
something dramatic like this.
CenturyLink,
which is based in Monroe, La., has been acquiring companies, and I don't think
it's done yet.
Of
course, this speculation could all be completely wrong. Sprint could end up
being the acquirer. There are still a number of smaller wireless carriers which,
if acquired, would make Sprint bigger and stronger as a wireless company.
However, this would still mean Sprint would just be a wireless carrier.
Then
again, all these mergers could take place, turning the combined CenturyLink and
Sprint into an even bigger single company.
So
the question is, once the AT&T, T-Mobile merger is done, what's next?
What
will Sprint do? What will CenturyLink do? What will WindStream do? Just like we
thought Sprint would acquire T-Mobile until AT&T jumped in, there may be
more surprises to come.
One
thing is for sure, the industry and the companies are changing. It is still too
early to know, but this is a very interesting story we will be watching unfold
over the next few years.
For
my Pick of the Week,
let's look at Nokia doing the right thing and deep-sixing the Ovi sub-brand and
focusing on the main Nokia brand.
The
marketplace can be confusing enough with all the new companies and brands and
technologies. Then companies make it even more confusing by introducing many
sub-brands.
Stick
to the core business and brand.
When
the soup just doesn't have the right taste, sticking with the master brand
strategy and strengthening it is always smart-- especially when you have not
done so well trying to introduce a sub-brand and instead confused the
marketplace and hurt your mast brand.
In
the last few years, Nokia has been under the gun. Just like Motorola (NYSE: MOT)
was 10 years ago, Nokia is trying to find itself as the marketplace changes from
ordinary cellphones to hot new super-smartphones.
Motorola
did it with the help of Google (Nasdaq: GOOG). They tried for years and failed
until then. What is the future for Nokia? The market has changed in the last few
years. Will they have to partner with Google as well with Android? Or maybe
Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT)? That company is not hitting on all cylinders with
smartphones themselves yet. Can they actually help Nokia?
There
is a lot more to follow in this story, but here's a pat on the back to Nokia's
Chief Marketing Officer Jerri DeVard and key Nokia executives who decided to
keep their eye on the ball. Good move.
Whatever
Nokia does next, at least it seems to be starting to think in the right way and
starting to focus on the value of its brand name first. That is a great start.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Jeff
Kagan is an E-Commerce Times columnist and industry analyst following wireless,
telecom and healthcare technology. He is also an author, speaker and consultant.
Email him at jeff@jeffKAGAN.com. Read the first chapters of his new book Life
After Stroke, now available at Amazon.com and Barnes & Noble.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
http://www.ecommercetimes.com/story/Visions-of-AndroidHome-Dance-in-Googles-Head-72482.html
http://www.ecommercetimes.com/story/72482.html
OPINION
By
Jeff Kagan
E-Commerce
Times
05/19/11
5:00 AM PT
Like the Android system controls the smartphone, this Android@Home will control your home life. Using your mobile phone or tablet computer or other new remote control, you'll be able to do all sorts of things. It will open and close your drapes, brew your coffee, turn on the lights, turn off the alarm system, turn down the HVAC in unoccupied rooms, and so many more things.
Let's
take a peak into the future. Over the next few years, we will see the industry
continue to transform itself. Industry leaders may change. We have seen that
happen in the smartphone industry already. Are telephone and cable television
companies next?
Companies
like AT&T (NYSE: T), Verizon, Comcast (Nasdaq: CMCSK), Time Warner (NYSE:
TWX) and Cox have a target painted on them, and Google (Nasdaq: GOOG) is an
expert shot.
My
Pick of the Week topic: Verizon is working with Healthsense on an innovative
mHealth offering for seniors.
Major
Disruption
It's
hard to contemplate, but transformative companies like Google and Apple (Nasdaq:
AAPL) will continue to change everything. Over just the past four years, these
two companies have already begun to transform the wireless industry --
specifically the smartphone space. They now lead. Just a few years ago, leaders
were companies like RIM and Palm.
Google
is much more than search today; however, its search remains incredibly
successful with 93.7 percent market share revenues in the U.S., according to
Scott Cleland of Precursor, author of a new book called Search & Destroy.
What
is Google doing that makes me say we should think about it moving into and
disrupting the traditional telephone and cable television space? Let's take a
look. This could be very disturbing if you have not thought about it yet. It
could impact every worker, investor, partner and customer .
A
New World at Home
Last
week, Google introduced a new idea called "Android@Home." This is not
yet a product, but it is its dream. When other companies talk about their
dreams, we take it with a grain of salt, but when Google talks, we realize it is
already moving very quickly.
First
generations with Google are not always the best. Remember the first Android
phone on T-Mobile after the Apple iPhone was introduced? It was a flop. Yet it
did get Google into the wireless field, and it did learn some very important
lessons. The second version a year later was a hit, and it keeps getting bigger
and growing like crazy.
That's
how Google works. It jumps in and changes as it grows. That is the opposite of
other companies, which don't jump in until they are convinced they've got it
right. Those companies actually don't have it right -- and they have to make the
same ongoing adjustments as Google anyway. This method gives the impression that
Google grows and changes quickly. And it does.
When
I heard about Android@Home, I realized it was the first step into a new world
Google is not yet saying much about. This has to do with the cool things Google
wants to do for you in your home. Like the Android system controls the
smartphone, this Android@Home will control your home life.
Using
your mobile phone or tablet computer or other new remote control, you'll be able
to do all sorts of things. It will open and close your drapes, brew your coffee,
turn on the lights, turn off the alarm system, turn down the HVAC in unoccupied
rooms, and so many more things.
We'll
likely download apps to do more with the system at home. That means the app
environment will continue to grow. Apps for smartphones. Apps for tablet
computers. Apps for Android@Home. Apps for whatever will come next. And there
will be much more to come.
OK,
this is exciting, but it's also a big threat to traditional companies. What
should we expect next?
The
Government Is Watching
I
firmly believe that Google has its eyes on the bigger picture -- in this case,
the home phone and cable television services. That means as part of a bigger
bundle, Google will compete with telephone and cable TV and IPTV services.
Depending on how you look at it, this can be good or bad, but either way it will
be disruptive.
Google
is already in the early stages of ruling and changing the wireless world.
Customers love it, but competitors don't. Why stop there? There is an entire
other world of opportunity to also rule -- the wireline space.
Traditional
telephone and cable television companies are at risk as Google grows and
transforms the space. Today they all work with Google in one form or another.
Will that change? Will Google become the major competitor going forward? Yes, I
think that will happen. And if that is the case, will Google continue working
with these other companies?
This
could have a major impact on all sorts of companies, like AT&T, Verizon,
Sprint (NYSE: S), T-Mobile, CenturyLink, Windstream, Comcast, Time Warner, Cox,
CableVision, and all the smaller companies as well.
As
an example, look at traditional smartphone leaders like RIM, which is now
struggling as Google and Apple transform the space. The transformation is good.
It's what these traditional companies should have done themselves. However, now
they have a tough time keeping up. That wave of innovation continues to
challenge the status quo. That is good.
On
the other hand, if Google becomes that important, it will become a big target
for the government. Remember Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT)? It was like Google
through the 1980s and 1990s. We praised its growth and ingenuity. Then it became
too big and powerful. That's when the government had to step in and, well,
castrate it. Ouch.
How
long does it take for a company's growing wave to crest -- for it to capture the
government's attention and then battle for its life? Google is not ready for
that yet, but at some point it will be. As good as one company is, when it
becomes too successful, the government always steps in.
Change
Is Certain
We
don't know today exactly what the marketplace will look like going forward. We
don't know the products and services. We don't know what competitors will jump
in. We don't know how the traditional companies will suffer and react. We don't
know how we will think about this entire telephone and television space going
forward.
One
thing we should know is we will think very differently than we do today. After
all, just look at the smartphone industry as an example. Five years ago,
smartphones were RIM's BlackBerry and Palm's Treo. They were growing around 15
percent per year, and there were a few hundred apps. During the last few years,
the smartphone market has exploded with growth, and the leaders are Google and
Apple.
While
we don't have all the answers yet, I think it's clear that with companies like
Google and Apple leading the marketplace, we can expect things will look very
different, very quickly.
My
Pick of the Week is about Verizon working with Healthsense on
an innovative mHealth offering for seniors. Healthsense is a telehealth and
remote monitoring company.
It
provides things like activity monitors for the home and the ability to call
nursing stations. These monitors check users' activities in the home. They
monitor things like how often toilets are used, or when doors open and close.
If
activity is outside of expectations, doctors or nurses are notified to check on
patients, as Healthsense president Brian Bischoff describes it.
Verizon
provides the network connection. This is intended to be marketed to assisted
living facilities and senior centers. This is part of the next generation of
services we will be using going forward.
Brian
Bischoff even talks about the next step for both Healthsense and Verizon:
expanding telemedicine with a remote physician visiting in patient's homes.
That's right -- just like the Emergency Medical Hologram on the Star Trek:
Voyager TV series. Beam me up, Scotty! Incredible.
http://www.ecommercetimes.com/story/72437.html
OPINION
Summer Reading: Will Fear of GPS Interference Doom LightSquared?
By
Jeff Kagan
E-Commerce Times
05/12/11 5:00 AM PT
LightSquared is trying to steam along at full speed toward the finish line. At the same time, instead of a clear racetrack, the path is loaded with all sorts of hazards, and it's getting worse -- not better. This GPS problem may be a real problem for the startup. If this is a good summertime novel, we don't yet know how the story ends. It has not been written yet.
LightSquared
sounds like a great idea. The company sees a growing need and has a plan. It
plans on building a network and offering extra capacity to wireless carriers for
wireless data usage.
Wireless
carriers that need wireless data capacity can just partner with this company and
get the connectivity they need. Sounds good so far. Think about AT&T (NYSE:
T) Mobility wireless data logjams over the last few years with the iPhone. The
reality, however, seems to be a very rough road ahead. The question is, will
this thing ever get off the ground?
In
this week's Pick of the Week section, I want to tell you about WellDoc, an
interesting mobile health company. It uses a new mHealth app to help people stay
on top of their Type 2 diabetes.
Months
ago, we wondered about financing for LightSquared. Since then, it has lined up
the first rounds. OK, good. Now there is another big question. The spectrum
LightSquared uses may interfere with GPS signals. So suddenly, the entire
navigation industry is up in arms.
LightSquared's
reply? Well, it has none. OK. Doesn't make sense.
This
company's struggle to break out and become real has been a very interesting
story to follow. Like every good novel, it is full of great characters, loads of
twists, and plenty of conflict. In the end, you hope the company can prevail,
because the industry could really use what it promises. Smartphones are
proliferating so quickly, they are squeezing the wireless networks like AT&T
Mobility dry.
However,
as we get further into the story, the future and success of the company gets
cloudier -- not clearer. Will this story ever have a happy ending? It's the not
knowing that keeps us following this story.
Let's
face it. The fast-growing wireless industry has a problem. It needs more
wireless bandwidth. There are growing data logjams everywhere, and it is only
going to get worse. After all, that's why AT&T wants to merge with T-Mobile.
That's why it started offering WiFi access for smartphones a few years ago.
This
is the problem and the opportunity that LightSquared sees. As wireless data
demand grows, it wants to help carriers like AT&T Mobility, Verizon
Wireless, Sprint Nextel (NYSE: S), T-Mobile and a host of smaller companies such
as U.S. Cellular and Cellular South with their bandwidth shortages.
A
few years ago, this was just a dream by investor Phil Falcone. Then he hired
several key executives, including CEO Sanjiv Ahuja, who was a keynote speaker at
last month's CTIA wireless show in Orlando. Ahuja also gave an interesting
interview on CNBC later that day.
The
company launched a satellite into orbit several months ago. It has also got
several large investors. It just signed partnership deals with Best Buy (NYSE:
BBY) and Leap Wireless. They are also talking with other companies like Time
Warner (NYSE: TWX) and CableVision.
On
one hand, things really seem like they are coming together for the startup. On
the other hand, all of a sudden, the other side of the coin is starting to show
itself and threatens to become a real problem for the company.
This
company is trying to steam along at full speed toward the finish line. At the
same time, instead of a clear racetrack, the path is loaded with all sorts of
hazards, and it's getting worse -- not better. This GPS problem may be a real
problem for the startup.
If
this is a good summertime novel, we don't yet know how the story ends. It has
not been written yet.
Will
the problems be solved, and will the company be successful? Will the industry
have all this extra wireless capacity as the smartphone market continues to
explode?
Or
will it really be incompatible with GPS frequencies? Will LightSquared be forced
to make some big changes or even perhaps shut down? That is the question.
Apparently, it's not a sure thing.
In
addition, there is quite a bit of activity on the anti-LightSquared front. There
have been quite a few stories written about the problem, and not just here in
the U.S., but globally. There are conferences popping up discussing the topic
and all that could go wrong.
Now
the Department of Transportation and the U.S. Defense Department are raising a
red flag warning of potential problems. They are raising concerns about the
FCC's waiver to LightSquared. They are asking the FCC for a more comprehensive
study of the potential interference problems with GPS and navigation. If you
recall, in January the FCC gave LightSquared a waiver if it can resolve the GPS
problems before it turns on the service.
LightSquared
started working with the Global Positioning System Industry Council to study the
problem, and the company has to report to the FCC on a regular basis about its
progress. The final report is due in June.
Now
another group of manufacturers has formed a group called SaveOurGPS.org. There
is a growing number of companies -- like Garmin (Nasdaq: GRMN) in the GPS and
navigation space -- that have real concerns.
Last
week, Sens. Pat Roberts, R-Kan., and Ben Nelson, D-Neb., said they wanted the
FCC to stop the deployment of the LTE network until LightSquared can prove it
won't interfere with GPS.
So
the stack is building against LightSquared, and seems to be getting quite high.
Until the company can definitively say and prove it won't cause harm, it looks
like it will be stopped.
If
it cannot fix this problem, it could mean the end of the story for LigthtSquared.
That would not be good news for the company -- but beyond that, it would not be
good news for the wireless industry, which is facing spectrum shortage as
wireless data usage continues to explode with smartphones like the many devices
running versions of Google (Nasdaq: GOOG) Android and Apple's (Nasdaq: AAPL)
iPhone.
So
what is the truth? Is there a real problem, or is this a lot of worry about
nothing? We have to ask this question in today's environment. That is the
question, but no one really seems to know for sure on either side. Even
LightSquared does not have answers.
Every
great story is full of conflict, which is one of the reasons this is a heck of a
story to follow. However, this story is not just about LightSquared. It is also
about needed spectrum, other wireless carriers, and all the customers. And it's
also about the GPS navigation industry.
Oh
well, I guess we'll have to keep following this story. Like I said, the end has
not been written yet. We'll find the answer sooner or later. However, something
tells me the report due in June won't be the end either. To be continued . . .
For
my Pick of the Week discussion, I want to tell you about an interesting
mobile health company, WellDoc. It uses a new mHealth app, the WellDoc
DiabetesManager System, to help people stay on top of their Type 2 diabetes and
communicate with their doctors for better care.
Anand
Iyer is the president and CEO. WellDoc has found a way to use the cellphone to
capture data, provide behavioral coaching, and communicate with the doctor,who
then has a better picture of your condition to inform any necessary adjustments
to your medication.
During
a 90-day study, it has seen A1C levels drop two points. If you have diabetes,
you will know that is a terrific result. WellDoc has received the blessing of
regulators like the FDA.
The
company has started working with AT&T. The way it works is simple: Say it
has a customer that is a healthcare
insurance company. Patients/subscribers are invited to participate. Those who
agree will receive a text message with a link to download software to the
cellphone -- the app.
Once
it's installed, the customer can access the portal. At that point, the system
begins communicating with the patient, offering reminders to test blood sugar
levels, for example, and enter the results into the phone. It then gives
recommendations.
This
is helpful, because a problem we have to solve is that after a few refills, many
patients just stop taking their medication. This new and innovative wireless
health company looks like it is on the right track.
http://www.ecommercetimes.com/story/72395.html
OPINION
Stroke Survivors Can Come Back Strong - and Tech Tools Can Help
By Jeff Kagan
E-Commerce Times
05/05/11 5:00 AM PT
I have to tell you, while I would never volunteer to take the ride again, what I learned about the mind is incredible. It is strong and deep -- and a very surprising place. It was the most beautiful and awesome and awful ride, all at once. There are so many new health-tech ideas in the market today. This is one of the reasons I am so interested in and excited about our growing wireless health, mHealth and eHealth industry.
Since May is National Stroke Awareness Month, and since I am a stroke survivor, I want to share with you some important information everyone needs to know -- whether you are a stroke survivor yourself, or have a recovering relative or friend.
In my Pick of the Week section, let me tell you about Allsup, a company that has turned into a powerhouse helping people win their elusive benefits.
We hear of quite a few famous stroke survivors -- like actor Kirk Douglas, Vice President Joe Biden's son Beau Biden, weatherman Mark McEwen and Dick Clark. New England Patriots linebacker Tedy Bruschi had a stroke 10 days after winning the Super Bowl. He was only 31 years old and said he was in the best shape of his life. He thought strokes only happened to elderly people.
In the tech industry, Steve Largent -- head of the wireless association CTIA -- had a stroke the year after I had mine. When we talk, I see Steve's recovery has been inspiring. He has the right attitude. His hard work, commitment and recovery make a great success story to inspire everyone struggling with stroke and recovery today.
Sharing My Story
As I struggled with recovery, I found a problem that needed a solution. Suddenly I had many new doctors and had even more questions. Surprisingly, they offered nothing in the way of answers.
I wanted to know how to recover quickly. How to put this behind me. What was coming next. I wanted to know how to get my life back. Eventually I did learn -- over time.
So I decided when I had recovered that I would help others get these answers. I would write a book on what I had learned. I wanted to help others better understand what was happening to them and what was coming next by telling my story.
My book, Life After Stroke: On The Road To Recovery, has just been published. I have received so many touching emails from readers. You can click here and read the first couple of chapters. It will open your eyes and give you important tools everyone should have.
In the book, I call us "stroke survivors." To me, having a positive attitude is an important part of the recovery process. Looking at the glass as being half full, not half empty. That is key.
An App for 'Help!'
In the world of wireless and healthcare technology, there are so many new ideas that didn't exist a few short years ago. Here is one example: an app for stroke survivors that works on smartphones.
Jay Elliott, founder of Nuvel and author of The Steve Jobs Way, briefed me on his new app, vSOS.
When you press the icon on your iPhone, it jumps to action. It calls you to see if you need help. If you don't answer, it can use GPS technology to tell where you are and send emergency help.
Elliott developed this with a friend in mind who is also recovering from a stroke. vSOS actually has lots of applications, including for people living alone.
Awesome and Awful
This is just one of many exciting ideas I am briefed on every day. When I went to the CTIA Wireless show in March, there were so many more exciting ideas on display. This is an amazing time we are entering, and I will tell you about many of these great ideas.
The good news is stroke survivors often come back strong. They can once again grow into important players in our industry and our companies. It just takes a little extra time and work.
I have to tell you, while I would never volunteer to take the ride again, what I learned about the mind is incredible. It is strong and deep -- and a very surprising place. It was the most beautiful and awesome and awful ride, all at once.
When I give a speech on my experience, it brings back tears about the past and excitement about the future.
There are so many new health-tech ideas in the market today. This is one of the reasons I am so interested in and excited about our growing wireless health, mHealth and eHealth industry. Health is something that we will all be dealing with going forward as individuals, workers and investors. You will see me following and covering and talking about this exciting area. I hope it surprises and delights you as much as it does me.
The changes in healthcare technology we have seen over the last seven years have truly been amazing, and we are still only in the first inning of this brand new game. Batter up!
My Pick of the Week is Allsup, a company that helps people win their Social Security benefits. Jim Allsup started the company in 1984 after working for the Social Security Administration. He saw a need and started this company, which has grown into a powerhouse of help for those struggling with a variety of illnesses, including stroke.
Since I am a stroke survivor, I can completely understand their model and the need. I was unable to work or even think. My income stopped, and my mind was in such chaos. Benefits? Disability insurance or Social Security? I was lost. That's where Allsup enters the picture.
Allsup calls itself the nation's leading disability representation company and says it has helped more than 150,000 people receive more than US$12 billion in Social Security Disability Insurance (SSDI) and Medicare benefits.
This is a needed service when dealing with the confusing and complex world of government benefits, where even when you need them the most, it is often very difficult to get help. If only I knew about Allsup a few years ago!
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Jeff Kagan is an E-Commerce Times columnist and industry analyst following wireless, telecom and healthcare technology. He is also an author, speaker and consultant. Email him at jeff@jeffKAGAN.com. Read the first chapters of his new book Life After Stroke, now available at Amazon.com and Barnes & Noble.
http://www.ecommercetimes.com/story/Wireless-Health-Whats-in-It-for-Doctors-72347.html
http://www.ecommercetimes.com/story/72347.html
OPINION
By
Jeff Kagan
E-Commerce
Times
04/28/11
5:00 AM PT
I firmly believe all this mind-blowing innovation will occur. This is great news for jobs and investment and industry growth. However, we need to change some basic things to make sure one party does not win at the expense of another party. We have to make sure we have the right people in charge so everyone benefits. We understand the wireless industry changes -- and often. We have to start thinking the same way about this new healthcare model.
After
listening to countless companies' exciting ideas, I have come to the conclusion
that the new wireless health sector has the potential to grow into a booming
business within the next five years. The question is, how much am I willing to
bet? The potential is there, but can we clear the path?
Depending
on whom you ask, it is either coming on strong or it is going nowhere. Both
sides are firmly convinced they are right. The truth is that something has to
change, and I'll explain why.
In
my Pick of the Week section, I want to tell you how Michael Dell (Nasdaq: DELL)
and Dell Inc. are getting into the mHealth industry with Meditech.
Our
healthcare system is being rewritten with wave after wave of change --
innovations and technologies that use new wireless and wireline connections.
There are companies, large and small, with exciting ideas about what the future
will look like. They are all contacting me to get on my radar, and it is
exciting.
On
the other hand, there is a roadblock I want to tell you about. I just visited a
few doctors and brought up the topic of wireless health, mHealth and eHealth. I
like talking with doctors, because they are honest and tell me what they really
think.
They
all surprised me and quickly said all this new health stuff would not happen.
Period.
So
where is the rub? Is this going to be real or not? Why don't these two important
sides in the process see eye-to-eye on where we are heading?
Well,
the answer is simple enough. You and I would not be willing to do loads of extra
work without being compensated, and the doctors feel the same way.
They
say it sounds like a great idea. It will save the insurance companies money,
since they won't have to pay for a visit. It will save the patients time and
money, since they won't have to come in for a visit. But for the doctor, the
picture isn't so rosy.
It
means doctors will have to spend more hours per day, often at the end of the
day, communicating with patients without compensation. Plus the patient doesn't
come in for a visit, so they lose that income also. It's a double-whammy. The
doctor gets it from both ends.
If
you were asked to spend that much more time at work, with no more income, and in
fact losing income, would you? I didn't think so. Neither would I. So why should
they? That is one of the problems we must fix if we want to move forward.
Another
hurdle is expertise. There is a big gap here. There are very few people in the
world who have expertise on both sides. Either they are an expert in healthcare,
or communications technology.
So
what is the answer? Do colleges start teaching differently? Do we take wireless
people and teach them healthcare, and visa versa? Whatever the solution is, we
are just getting started down this new path, and we need solutions. We'd love to
follow the yellow brick road, but instead the path is uphill, and full of vines
and rocks.
Another
question is do we totally overhaul the system or continue to tweak it for years
to come? It sounds better to just overhaul the entire system right? However,
technology innovations bring changes every year. So this massive overhaul will
be outdated in a year or two. Even before the transformation is complete. It
makes more sense to keep tweaking.
Let
me say I firmly believe all this mind-blowing innovation will occur. This is
great news for jobs and investment and industry growth. However, we need to
change some basic things to make sure it is fair for everyone. To make sure one
party does not win at the expense of another party. We have to make sure we have
the right people in charge so everyone benefits.
We
understand the wireless industry changes -- and often. We have to start thinking
the same way about this new healthcare model. All this new technology that is
being presented by companies like Qualcomm (Nasdaq: QCOM), Johnson & Johnson
(NYSE: JNJ), Cisco (Nasdaq: CSCO), GE, and many others. They will continue to
change the healthcare world we think we know.
We
have to look for help from new groups with new thinking, like the Wireless-Life
Sciences Alliance. What about government agencies? Which will play a role? The
Food and Drug Adminstration? The FCC? What about new agencies as this industry
sector grows? I think we'll see new players in this space. Piece by piece,
everything will change.
Every
day, I get contacted by companies, large and small, with amazing and
earthshaking ideas that make me realize the future of healthcare is bright and
new and exciting. They want me to tell the world about them.
We
have seen lots of innovation -- but make no mistake, so far this is a new path,
and we have more questions than answers. That is actually the good part.
However, we have to remember that while some parties are excited about moving
forward, others think this just won't happen.
Today
they are both right, because the disconnect shines a light on some of the areas
we need to adjust to make sure everyone is on the same train.
One
of our more immediate challenges is to make the playing field even and
opportunities fair for all. Once we do that, the bumpy road ahead will be
smoothed, and the speeds will increase, and things will start to happen quickly.
And
isn't that what we all want to happen? Imagine what the world will be like when
healthcare gets to be as cool and fast-growing and rapidly changing as the
iPhone and Android? This is the incredible world that investors, workers and
everyone else are waiting for.
My
Pick of the Week topic is how Michael Dell and Dell Inc. are getting into the
mHealth industry with Meditech. But, you may ask, aren't they in the computer
business? Yes, but they are also thinking outside the box. Looking to new areas
for growth. That will also help the healthcare industry.
Wireless
health is one of the big opportunities going forward for companies large and
small. Computer companies like Dell are well positioned not only to be big
winners in this space, but also leaders.
Dell
is moving into this area and has unveiled a new mobile program called "Meditech
MCC," which stands for "mobile clinical computing." This new
program brings companies' healthcare information services (HCIS) from a PC-based
system into a cloud-based system.
Dell
says it is a virtual desktop that allows users to seamlessly move from desktops
to laptops to tablets to smartphones. According to Dell, storing data in the
cloud rather than on hard drives is a better way to prevent security problems.
Actually, it solves some and raises others, but they can be managed with good
execution.
Meditech
is being beta-tested in hospitals now. If Dell does this well, it could be an
important slice of its business going forward. I think if you look at similar
computer companies -- like Lenovo, Toshiba, HP (NYSE: HPQ) and Apple (Nasdaq:
AAPL) -- you may find plenty of movement in this same direction. They are hoping
to capture the imagination of the marketplace and find growth outside the
traditional PC market.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Jeff
Kagan is an E-Commerce Times columnist and industry analyst following wireless,
telecom and healthcare technology. He is also an author, speaker and consultant.
Email him at jeff@jeffKAGAN.com. Read the first chapters of his new book Life
After Stroke now available at Amazon.com and Barnes & Noble.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
http://www.ecommercetimes.com/story/ATT-Sees-T-Mobile-Merger-Through-Rose-Colored-Glasses-72310.html
http://www.ecommercetimes.com/story/72310.html
OPINION
AT&T Sees T-Mobile Merger Through Rose-Colored Glasses
By
Jeff Kagan
E-Commerce
Times
04/21/11
5:00 AM PT
Let's hope this merger benefits not just AT&T, but the industry overall. There is a long way to go before it gets there, and it would be very helpful if AT&T would take a more realistic stance on both the pros and cons, instead of looking at this deal like it is just positive for everyone, which it clearly is not.
I
want to give you some of the feedback on my recent column, "Thumbs Up or
Down for AT&T (NYSE: T) + T-Mobile?" It is very interesting indeed.
This merger is getting lots of attention. Arguments on both sides make sense,
but only one side will win. Which side are you on, and why? Have you thought it
through?
When
reading this, please realize I am not saying this deal shouldn't happen. What I
am saying is that AT&T is only looking at the reasons for and not the
reasons against -- and that is creating a lot more pushback.
AT&T
customers seem to like the idea. They like that this will give them better
quality and reliability and service. This has been an increasing problem in
recent years.
Customers
of other carriers, if they have an opinion, seem to dislike it, because they say
fewer competitors mean higher prices and less vibrant competition.
Execs
from AT&T thought I was crazy for questioning the deal in my column. They
think this is a good deal -- not only for AT&T, but for the entire industry.
They see no other side. They are singularly focused. Of course, they want the
deal to happen. More on this later.
AT&T
workers are more of a mixed bag. Some think it is a good idea, but many are also
very worried about their jobs with all the new workers coming in. They have seen
this before with the other mergers they have participated in. Bottom line: The
efficiencies resulting from a merger typically mean the company doesn't need all
those workers. Many lose their jobs. In today's jobs environment, that has many
concerned.
Execs
from Sprint Nextel (NYSE: S) are against the merger. Sprint CEO Dan Hesse has
been a very vocal adversary since the beginning. AT&T did not immediately
answer his criticisms, but after a recent speech by Hesse, AT&T responded in
a post on its public policy blog: Jim Cicconi, senior executive VP for external
and legislative affairs, said Dan Hesse's comments about the merger were
"way off base." Are they?
"Given
that Sprint is a major competitor to AT&T in the hyper competitive wireless
market Mr. Hesse describes, no one should be surprised that they would oppose
this merger, but it is self-serving for them to argue that the highly
competitive wireless market they cited only months ago is not threatened by the
very type of transaction they seemed prepared to defend previously."
I
like Cicconi for his valiant effort, but I really don't think he realizes that
he is making Sprint's point. If Sprint and T-Mobile got together, it would have
made the three-way marketplace more even. Three more-equal competitors. Instead,
this current deal will make AT&T that much bigger and farther ahead of
Sprint Nextel. So you can't consider these two mergers equal. They are not.
Sprint
is now recovering from a very rough period and many years of losses. While this
recovery looks good, it should not be used to say that Sprint is as strong and
healthy as AT&T or Verizon. Sprint should not be pointed to by AT&T as
vibrant competition. It is not. Not yet. Just look at the market share numbers.
I
don't know if Sprint expects to stop the merger or just to moderate the
potential damage it could cause, but it is vocal about it. Sprint workers seem
to agree. This is turning out to be a very interesting battle that is just
starting.
Execs
from Verizon have not really weighed in one way or the other. They express
obvious concern with the many issues but don't want to block the deal either. My
impression is they have a problem with this merger but want to keep the pathway
clear in case they have another acquisition in mind.
There
are plenty of others -- like Tracfone, MetroPCS, Cellular South and U.S.
Cellular -- that AT&T Mobility CEO Ralph de la Vega points to as vibrant
competitors. Sure, they are competitors, but they don't sell enough to be real
competitors. Not in this argument. Look at market share. In the new environment,
AT&T and Verizon will have somewhere around 80 percent market share. All the
other competitors have to split the rest.
I
have also heard from equipment and network companies, and there are plenty. Very
few, if any, like the idea. Most think this will have a negative impact on them
and the industry in general.
For
example, companies like Ericsson (Nasdaq: ERICY) and Alcatel-Lucent (NYSE: ALU)
don't seem happy about this merger. They would prefer a marketplace full of
smaller and mid-size competitors, because they sell more gear. This deal means
fewer sites. That may mean losses and layoffs in an industry sector very hard
hit by previous mergers.
Tower
companies, like American Tower, have taken an immediate hit in the stock market.
American Tower CEO James Taiclet said in a CNBC interview that when similar
mergers took place in the past, the company experienced an initial slowdown
before continuing to grow. It sounds like he would prefer many companies as
opposed to a few, but said his firm will make it either way.
I
got a lot of phone calls and email and have read numerous articles with quotes
from various executives, associations, customers and investors either
complaining about the deal or loving it. There were plenty of both.
I
had so many questions when this merger was announced. Now, after hearing from so
many different interests, I have even more questions.
However,
that was the point of my original column. AT&T wants this deal, but it is
making things harder on itself with its current playbook.
This
deal is clearly good for AT&T. This deal is also clearly bad for many
others. For AT&T to ignore both valid sides will only hurt it.
I
have watched Ralph de la Vega for 15 years, and I think he is a good man, but I
think AT&T is making a mistake here in its approach. This is one of the last
big deals and should be harder to get approved. Ignoring the arguments of the
other side creates angst.
If
AT&T takes a fair approach, it will make friends and have less pushback. If
it stays on the current path, pushback will be strong the entire way.
AT&T
customers have been complaining for a while about lousy service. This merger
will help the company deliver better service. So there are reasons this makes
sense.
On
the other hand, we have seen many mergers in the past decade, and the results
have been mixed. This time, we have to be smart and try to look into the future
and design the best merger for everyone -- customers, workers, investors, as
well as the companies.
We
need to think about the changing and growing industry. We have to realize the
wireless industry changes every five years. Remember, five years ago, the words
"iPhone" and "Android" did not even exist. Five years ago,
RIM, with its BlackBerry, and Palm ruled the smaller smartphone space. Five
years ago, we had a couple hundred apps, and today we have a few hundred
thousand.
So,
what will the wireless marketplace look like tomorrow? That is what we have to
think about. That is what we have to address.
When
all is said and done, I think this deal will be done -- but AT&T should make
several important concessions. I think it knows this but doesn't want to move in
that direction yet.
I
like AT&T. Starting as SBC from San Antonio Texas, it is suddenly a very
large company that is trying very hard to grow and please everyone. I also think
it is having a dickens of a time doing so. It makes its share of mistakes, but
it also makes many good moves and is a very innovative and creative company.
Let's
hope this merger benefits not just AT&T, but the industry overall. There is
a long way to go before it gets there, and it would be very helpful if AT&T
would take a more realistic stance on both the pros and cons, instead of looking
at this deal like it is just positive for everyone, which it clearly is not.
For
my Pick of the Week topic, I want you to think back and remember the good old
advertising commercials AT&T ran in the 1980s and 1990s. The kind that made
you feel good. During the last decade, we have not seen them. The good news is
they are back.
Suddenly,
AT&T is running a newer version of those same old wholesome feel-good
messages that worked so well in the past, and this time they are called
"Anthem." I guess the company is hoping they will warm the hearts of
the marketplace -- and they just might.
Among
other things, AT&T is talking about healthcare and putting your personal
information in the cloud, so that when you are traveling, the doctors can see
your medical history.
That
is brilliant. AT&T understands the direction the industry is heading. It
will play a role in this new industry going forward.
It
is talking up a great story. Now it just has to make it a reality. This new
world, with wireless health, mHealth and eHealth, is really starting to arrive.
Let's hope it has a faster growth curve than the videophone did from the 1964
World's Fair. Has it hit the market yet?
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Jeff
Kagan is an E-Commerce Times columnist and industry analyst following wireless,
telecom and healthcare technology. He is also an author, speaker and consultant.
Email him at jeff@jeffKAGAN.com. Read the first chapters of his new book Life
After Stroke now available at Amazon.com and Barnes & Noble.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
http://www.ecommercetimes.com/story/Get-Ready-to-Grab-the-mHealth-Wave-72264.html
http://www.ecommercetimes.com/story/72264.html
OPINION
By
Jeff Kagan
E-Commerce
Times
04/14/11
5:00 AM PT
What do you think about when you think of AT&T, Verizon and Sprint? Probably wireless and telephone and Internet and television -- but not healthcare. Yet they will play an important role in the development of the new mHealth industry segment. These companies understand they will play an important part in this new revolution, but today they simply don't have a clue what that means exactly.
Suddenly,
mHealth is very visible in the wireless industry. At the CTIA show a few weeks
ago in Orlando, there were many companies up and down the aisles from every
corner of the industry. They were trying to capture the attention of the
attendees, who were mesmerized by all the bright lights and cool things to see.
Mixed in with all this craziness, the newly planted seeds of the wireless health
space were starting to take root.
Qualcomm
(Nasdaq: QCOM) looks like one of the leaders in this new wireless health space.
At the show, it had its own huge booth as usual, but it also sponsored a
separate area , the Wireless Health Pavilion, which gave space to many small
companies with big ideas.
I
met with representatives of several of these companies, and they have very
interesting and exciting ideas. New companies like Diversinet, which enables
secure, mobile communications among healthcare professionals, hospitals and the
entire healthcare ecosystem. Independa is another; it will announce a
tablet-based service that remotely monitors homebound patient health and reminds
them of their medications, appointments and other important things, so off-site
caregivers can view trends and spot problems before they become crises.
There
were others, like Magellan, Zinwave, Mobi Health News, CellTrak Technologies,
AnyDATA, Telcare, OptumizeMe and many more.
There
were so many new and really cool ideas, I could see how exciting the next decade
will be watching new opportunities develop.
I
talked with Don Jones, VP of business development for Wireless Health at
Qualcomm. In every revolution, there are a few key people and companies that
help to drive things in the right direction. Don and Qualcomm are part of that
small group with a large voice helping to drive mHealth.
I
had coffee with Rob McCray who is president and CEO of the Wireless-Life
Sciences Alliance, also at Qualcomm's Wireless Health Pavilion. Rob has a strong
desire to bring wireless health to reality, and this global trade organization
is bringing CEOs from wireless health companies together with business leaders
and researchers in healthcare and technology.
There
are other companies just as active in this space, large and small, and I am
getting to know them all as they get in touch with me.
The
fun part is watching an old and established wireless industry transform itself.
What, you don't think wireless is old and established? Well, compare it to the
new mHealth space, and you will see what I mean.
I
am starting to meet some very interesting people who are driving this young and
exciting industry segment. The blending of healthcare and wireless has been
growing in recent years.
I
think 2011, this year, will be the breakout year when it takes on a life of its
own.
With
that said, the leaders of today may or may not be the leaders of tomorrow.
Remember what we saw with the Internet. While eBay (Nasdaq: EBAY) and Amazon.com
(Nasdaq: AMZN) are still doing well, where are other previous leaders -- like
Prodigy and Netscape? They were important, but they are no longer.
So
who will still be here, who will disappear, and who will appear during the next
five years? Who will capture the imagination of the marketplace, investors and
the media?
Wireless
health is one of the newest -- and is going to be one of the hottest -- growth
areas going forward. The more I look into this new space the more interesting it
gets, and the more questions I have.
This
is exciting from an investors' point of view, although it is like a minefield.
Some companies are going to grow, and some won't. Picking the winners to invest
in is always the challenge.
I
have talked with many executives from large companies, and from smaller
companies with great ideas looking for venture capital. Angel investors. How
they find each other remains one of the big challenges.
Chief
marketing officers for this new sector have a big opportunity and a bigger
challenge. How do you get the word out on such a new area? Ten years from now it
won't be a problem, but today most people have never heard of wireless
healthcare.
Three
companies here in the United States that will play a role in this space are
AT&T (NYSE: T), Verizon and Sprint (NYSE: S). There are plenty of other
companies in other countries. These are the companies that have the networks to
connect patients and the entire medical community, both wireless and wireline.
What
do you think about when you think of AT&T, Verizon and Sprint? Probably
wireless and telephone and Internet and television -- but not healthcare. Yet
they will play an important role in the development of this new industry
segment.
I
have talked with each of these companies, and so have many others from the
wireless health industry, and I think we all have found the same thing. These
companies understand they will play an important part in this new revolution,
but today they simply don't have a clue what that means exactly.
Trying
to get AT&T, Verizon and Sprint to think like a healthcare company is like
trying to fit a round peg into a square hole. Yet it's a hurdle we have to get
over to make all this come true.
Google
(Nasdaq: GOOG) and Yahoo (Nasdaq: YHOO) also have search engines for this
sector. We have to encourage these companies to continue rapidly moving in this
direction. This is an amazing opportunity.
Does
that mean these wireless companies need to hire healthcare executives, or does
that mean the healthcare companies need to hire wireless execs? Too bad there
are so few executives who really understand the coming opportunity from all
sides. Perhaps that is an opportunity to explore.
Barry
Green, owner and innovator with Consultants At Large, says he sees a big
opportunity here in this space and doesn't realize why carriers are not there
yet. He says someone has to build the bridges to connect wireless and
healthcare.
As
I see it, you can either lead or follow in this new space. There are no
long-standing rules yet. I believe it is up to the CEO of every company to
decide which role to take. How do you build this bridge? Companies think they
are moving in the right direction, but this is more like the wild wild West.
I
am a relative newcomer to this space. I have been a wireless and telecom
industry analyst for 25 years. The business sectors and the companies I follow
have expanded over that time to include many in the cellular and wireless,
telephone, Internet, cable television and IPTV space.
Now
I am following this brand new mHealth and eHealth industry as it cracks open the
eggshell and hatches in the beautiful sunshine of a warm, spring morning. Let's
continue to learn about this exciting and challenging new segment together.
There
are loads of opportunities and risks for investors, venture capitalists,
workers, executives, partners, customers -- and of course, the patients and
doctors. This new playground means we'll have some fun, make some money, find
new careers, and change the world of wireless healthcare forever.
Remember,
change only takes a moment. Then everyone has to rush to catch up.
http://www.ecommercetimes.com/story/Note-to-TV-Nets-Steer-Clear-of-Musics-Painful-Path-72222.html
http://www.ecommercetimes.com/story/72222.html
OPINION
Note
to TV Nets: Steer Clear of Music's Painful Path
By
Jeff Kagan
E-Commerce
Times
04/07/11
5:00 AM PT
The networks' argument is that by making the content available on the iPad, Time Warner has violated its agreements with them. OK, so let me get this straight. As technology and innovation continue to sweep across the marketplace and delight us, we have to be worried about old agreements that didn't see these changes coming. Adhering to these old agreements makes this cool new tech no better than a really hot paperweight.
New
technology may be cool, but it can also be a double-edged sword. Different
industries are starting to overlap, and even though the blending of different
technologies can be very exciting, it can also be very confusing.
One
example is how cable television companies have been starting to use the Apple (Nasdaq:
AAPL) iPad and other tablet computers as a super-powered remote control. You can
flip through pages of channels and times and shows on the handheld screen and
select what you want to watch. They do this through an app that customers
download. I'll explore some of the implications of the tablet's encroachment on
the TV this week.
As
my Pick of the Week topic, I want to congratulate CenturyLink for becoming the
No. 3 baby bell by acquiring Qwest.
The
TV remote app is just for starters. Taking this to the next logical level, cable
television companies are letting customers watch shows not only on their TVs,
but increasingly on personal computers and tablets. Customers love the
flexibility. Time Warner (NYSE: TWX) customers have downloaded its iPad app more
than 300,000 times already. This seems like it is just what customers want, and
it will be big.
However,
this innovation seems to be rubbing some in the industry the wrong way -- like
some television networks and channels.
These
companies are starting to remind me of the music industry during its
transformation in the 1990s, when music was starting to be turned into files and
listened to on the laptop, and then iPods and the like.
Cable
television companies have started down this exciting path -- watching television
on whatever screen you choose -- and today we have an increasing number of
screens. Imagine watching television shows on your handheld device anywhere in
your home. And imagine what is coming next, when you are at the store, or
waiting for the kids in car-pool line, or even in another city on a trip.
Eventually, you will be able to watch your own personal cable television service
anywhere.
Time
Warner and Comcast (Nasdaq: CMCSK) are starting to allow customers not only to
use their tablets as a remote, but also to watch television on them. Cablevision
was planning on launching its app in March, but it is not yet ready. Cox is
starting to dip its toes in the water with its first app. This is the beginning
of an entirely new way of thinking about and watching television.
Some
networks don't like this innovation, however, and are starting to raise the same
objections the music industry did. Fighting the change rather than embracing it
ultimately hurt the music industry. Will the same thing happen to these
networks?
While
Time Warner is not saying it did anything wrong by putting channels on the iPad
streaming video application for their customers, it has decided to remove a
dozen channels from some powerful networks that were not happy.
Why
did these networks object? They wanted to make more profits on their channels, I
guess. Screw innovation. Screw the customer. It looks like they are singularly
focused on the investor. Why don't they see this as a ticking time bomb?
Time
Warner says it will continue to fight to ensure that their customers have access
to the content they pay for, no matter which screen in their home they choose to
view it on. Customers are on the Time Warner side of this argument.
The
networks' argument is that by making the content available on the iPad, Time
Warner has violated its agreements with them. OK, so let me get this straight.
As technology and innovation continue to sweep across the marketplace and
delight us, we have to be worried about old agreements that didn't see these
changes coming. Adhering to these old agreements makes this cool new tech no
better than a really hot paperweight.
Fortunately,
Time Warner Cable soon rebounded, announcing it would start including 17 new
channels for viewing on tablets. As with music, this is a runaway train. The
networks should either figure out how to join this exciting movement or they
should get out of the way. They can't stop it.
This
battle is in the very early stages, and it is time to make your opinion heard.
It is important to understand that this issue has a variety of heads --
including the investor and the customer. Which are the networks focusing on? The
investor, it looks like.
Fine,
investors in the networks are probably happy. On the other hand, customers of
Time Warner want innovation, and the networks are standing in the way. If the
networks don't want to make viewers angry, they should be very careful here.
Competition is growing from AT&T (NYSE: T) U-verse and Verizon FiOS. Even
the new third baby bell, CenturyLink, is experimenting with this technology. The
writing is on the wall, and innovation is key.
This
shows the painful problems of innovation as technology expands and changes. This
shows the problem when a company focuses on today's profits and ignores the
competitive reality that is changing beneath its feet.
Here's
an idea: What about saying customers can watch the programming they've paid for
on any device in their home area? Televisions, table computers, laptops,
desktops, screens on the walls -- everything. After all, we are starting with
iPad computers, but as the table computer continues to explode, this is another
great new way to watch television.
Any
new technologies would be allowed, as long as they were used in the home zone.
Why does it have to be a TV screen, when so many other screens can access the
same content?
Perhaps
there can be an additional charge for watching your television shows when out of
your home zone. So if you want to watch TV while waiting for the kids in car
pool line on your iPad or even on the TV screens in your mini-van, you will have
to pay another fee. Maybe that's a solution.
I
don't have all the answers, but I do know that trying to stop this sweeping wave
of exciting change will only tick off customers and viewers -- and the price
that will have to be paid down the road for that stupid move will be very costly
indeed to the networks. This is the kind of anger that is the starting place for
real innovation.
So
come on networks and cable television providers, work it out -- and quickly. The
consumer is champing at the bit and has a very short fuse.
Good
job, Time Warner Cable. Here's a pat on the back to Jeff Bewkes, Time Warner
chief executive, and Glenn Britt, Time Warner Cable chairman and CEO.
For
my Pick of the Week discussion, CenturyLink is now the No. 3 local phone
company, after AT&T and Verizon. It just completed its acquisition of Qwest,
and now we will see what new things will start to occur.
By
the way, this also moves Windstream up to the No. 4 position among local phone
companies, if you are counting.
We
are watching the U.S.'s local phone companies change and break up into two
distinct groups -- AT&T and Verizon on one side, and CenturyLink and
Windstream on the other.
CenturyLink
seems to have some aggressive plans. Whether it can make them reality is the
question that has yet to be answered. It has some innovative ideas. It is
testing its own wireless service in a few markets. If this works, it will
expand. What about television?
What
will CenturyLink look like going forward? Will it compete with a variety of
services -- more like AT&T and Verizon -- or will it stay on the other side
of the line with Windstream? It will now be in 37 states with a 190,000-mile
fiber network. It will also have 850,000 wireless customers, 1,415,000 video
subscribers, 17 million access lines and more than 5 million broadband
customers. It sounds like a pretty solid company at this point.
Glen
Post, the CEO and president, says the Qwest acquisition allows CenturyLink to
offer customers of all sizes an even more robust portfolio of communications
solutions that will continue to be backed by honest and personal service. That
actually sounds like a pretty good place to start, doesn't it? Refreshing. Maybe
it'll catch on.
It
will be interesting to hear its position on important industry reshaping issues
like the AT&T + T-Mobile merger.
So
congratulations, CenturyLink. You have suddenly become a very large and
important company. You will now be watched more closely. You may enjoy some of
what is written and said about you, and you may not like other parts. That's
just the way the business goes. Your performance is what counts for customers,
workers and investors.
I
hope you are ready, because the rules of this big game are much different than
the rules of the smaller game you've been successfully playing for the last
several years.
Suddenly
the world has changed for you. Just remember, all of a sudden everybody will be
listening to every word you have to say. Good luck!
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Jeff
Kagan is an E-Commerce Times columnist and industry analyst following wireless,
telecom and healthcare technology. He is also an author, speaker and consultant.
Email him at jeff@jeffKAGAN.com. Read the first chapters of his new book Life
After Stroke now available at Amazon.com and Barnes & Noble.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
http://www.ecommercetimes.com/story/Thumbs-Up-or-Down-for-ATT--T-Mobile-72176.html
http://www.ecommercetimes.com/story/72176.html
OPINION
Thumbs Up or Down for AT&T + T-Mobile?
By Jeff Kagan
E-Commerce Times
03/31/11 5:00 AM PT
If Sprint had acquired T-Mobile, it would have increased the size of the No. 3 competitor, and the result would have been a more competitive three-way race. That would have been good -- and easier to get done. Instead, this current proposal would turn AT&T into a bigger giant, followed by Verizon, which is also a giant, and it would leave Sprint even further behind than it is now. That is not good and will make this deal tougher.
So you've heard that AT&T (NYSE: T) Mobility wants to merge with T-Mobile. There are two main questions on everyone's mind: Is this deal good or bad, and will it happen or not?
Whether it's good or bad, of course, depends on your perspective. It will be good for some and bad for others. I have heard many opposing opinions on this merger.
While I initially thought it was just another deal that would be approved, I began to realize that many questions needed to be considered.
I'll consider the pros and cons of the AT&T-T-Mobile deal, and then in my Pick of the Week section, I'll tell you about Lightsquared.
Transformational Event
As the next several months pass, there will be a lot of debating over AT&T and T-Mobile. This is just the beginning. An exploration of some of the arguments for and against this deal will hopefully make it easier for you to decide which side you are on.
At this early stage, I believe this merger can be approved. However, it will be a sticky mess before the companies get there.
The question is this: What price will AT&T ultimately pay? Based on what I've heard so far, I have a feeling it won't be cheap. Approval will likely come with a hefty price tag that will affect investors, customers, competitors and suppliers.
This last week has been exciting, and we just started this game. I gave countless interviews with newspapers, magazines, television and radio stations. (You can read many of them on my website.) Like yours, perhaps, my opinion has already begun to mature over the last week -- and it will likely change over the coming months as both sides talk.
This is a very large deal that will have long-lasting impact on the entire industry. This is not just about AT&T.
This is one of those industry-reshaping events, so I think it is important to ask the right questions and make sure we think of everything before regulators decide yes or no. Even with all that thinking, we will not get it all. We never do. The industry continues to change, and unexpected results often occur.
Many think this is a good deal, and many think this is not. The funny thing is, they are both right. AT&T and T-Mobile executives love it. Sprint Nextel (NYSE: S) does not. Verizon Wireless so far does not have much of an opinion but is not opposing it. AT&T investors seem to love the idea. Investors in many smaller competitors don't.
Customers love and hate the idea. They love the idea of more spectrum and capacity improving their connection because they have had problems in the last few years. Some T-Mobile customers are happy because they see an improvement in their service.
On the other hand, T-Mobile customers are generally happy with their existing service, while AT&T customers are not as happy. Workers and executives at T-Mobile are generally not happy, because many of them will be cut.
Sprint Will Fall Behind
When we listen to AT&T or T-Mobile, all we hear are the good reasons for this deal to get done. That's fair enough since they want it. However, it is just as important to listen to the many arguments against the deal. Then weigh them and compare them. Then put them in order, most important to least important.
We have seen this industry transform itself over the last decade. In the 1990s, we had dozens of smaller, regional industry competitors. Today, after waves of mergers, we see fewer, larger, national players.
If anything, it seemed Sprint and T-Mobile would get together. They have been talking off and on over the last several years. This deal with AT&T surprised everyone.
If Sprint had acquired T-Mobile, it would have produced a very different result. It would have increased the size of the No. 3 competitor, and the result would have been a more competitive three-way race. That would have been good -- and easier to get done.
Instead, this current proposal would turn AT&T into a bigger giant, followed by Verizon, which is also a giant, and it would leave Sprint even further behind than it is now. That is not good and will make this deal tougher.
I originally thought there were plenty of competitors. There would still be a big three, plus a few smaller competitors. However after listening to the arguments against the idea, and after thinking this through over the last week, I am starting to realize that is not the case.
Instead it will be the big two -- AT&T and Verizon -- with their wireless and wireline businesses competing with each other. Sprint will be a very small player in comparison, even though it has been recovering.
That is another interesting part of this story. If Sprint were still struggling the way it was a few short years ago, this deal wouldn't stand a chance. However, now that Sprint is recovering and looking better and stronger, AT&T and T-Mobile have the guts to try to get together.
Serious Scrutiny Required
This deal will save AT&T's bacon. It was the first to go into smartphones full force -- before competitors who are still trying to catch up. This flood of Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) iPhone traffic started a data bottleneck at Ma Bell that the company still hasn't fixed.
Extra spectrum is just what AT&T needs -- it's not just about size. It's also about good quality service. This will give the company the spectrum and the wiggle room it needs, for now. Until it overloads again anyway.
Customers often complain about AT&T quality and service, but the company is still growing rapidly, so this does not seem to be a real problem.
These are all long-term questions and they require long-term answers. Unfortunately, this merger is a short-term fix. One step at a time, however. This will turn AT&T into the largest competitor once again. The next step may be what my Pick of the Week is about at the end of this column.
I have been asked another interesting question. Will they stay in Atlanta? I have heard they may be moved to Dallas. Who knows? Much of the decision-making is already there. If so, that would be a big blow to Atlanta.
I am not saying AT&T's merger ambitions should not be permitted. I am just saying there is so much more to be considered and debated this time around. Previous mergers were approved because there were still so many competitors. Now, however, the competitors are small in number. There are only AT&T and Verizon as the big two.
After Sprint Nextel, there is an assortment of smaller firms like Tracfone and MetroPCS, and regional players in each marketplace like Cellular South and U.S. Cellular. These are good players, and they are an important part of the mix, but they are not large enough to matter in this debate. And this merger would make them smaller than ever in comparison.
So, when AT&T and T-Mobile point to a very robust and rapidly growing wireless marketplace in order to be approved to merge, we should realize that this may be stretching the truth quite a bit. If this merger takes place, AT&T and Verizon will control what -- 89 percent of the market?
At the end of the day, this deal may happen. If it does, there will be good and bad parts. We should just make sure we don't just quickly and blindly approve it. This is an opportunity to shape the future of the wireless business going forward. It is not only an opportunity, but also an obligation. If this merger goes through, it will impact everyone -- customers, investors, workers and competitors -- for many years to come.
For my Pick of the Week topic, I'll offer some thoughts about Lightsquared, which may play a role in giving wireless carriers more data capacity. It does not offer service yet, and it continues to send out mixed signals, but it continues to build.
Lightsquared CEO Sanjiv Ahuja gave a keynote at last week's CTIA show and was on CNBC describing what it is trying to do, and it sounds impressive. It is facing some stiff technical problems that it needs to overcome, but it also has a great idea.
The industry players need more wireless data capacity, and Lightsquared would provide it.
Phil Falcone is a single man with a big dream, and he is working to make this a reality. He sees a growing wireless opportunity and wants to be a part of it.
Lightsquared is striking deals with industry players. For example, last week it announced deals with Best Buy and Leap Wireless, and this week, there have been reports of interest from cable television companies like Time Warner and CableVision.
Nothing is certain yet, but Lightsquared is inching its way closer to becoming a real competitor. We'll have to keep our eyes on it and hope for the best.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Jeff Kagan is an E-Commerce Times columnist and industry analyst following wireless, telecom and healthcare technology. He is also an author, speaker and consultant. Email him at jeff@jeffKAGAN.com. Read the first chapters of his new book Life After Stroke now available at Amazon.com and Barnes & Noble.
http://www.ecommercetimes.com/story/Pre-Paid-Wireless-Has-Finally-Grown-Up-72132.html
http://www.ecommercetimes.com/story/72132.html
OPINION
Pre-Paid Wireless Has Finally Grown Up
By
Jeff Kagan
E-Commerce
Times
03/24/11
5:00 AM PT
Post-paid cellphone providers often have a lock on the premium and brand-new devices, but don't write off pre-paid wireless providers entirely. I took a new look at these recently and was both delighted and surprised at how much this pre-paid industry segment has matured and gotten better. Do you want a second phone? Or what about a primary phone that just costs less?
Have
you taken a look at pre-paid wireless lately? I hadn't, since there is always so
much noise to follow in the post-paid world and pre-paid is relatively quiet,
but pre-paid is actually looking better and better over the last few years.
Pre-paid
is becoming a mainstream part of the mix you should consider. In fact, it is now
even better than traditional wireless for a growing percentage of users. Is it
better for you? You may be surprised.
At
the end of this column I will talk about how tablet and pad computers are
beginning to change the healthcare industry from doctors to hospitals and more.
We
always think the first option should be a traditional post-paid cellphone. And
for many years that was the best first choice. In the early days, pre-paid was
more expensive. Its claim to fame was it gave those with a poor credit rating a
chance to go wireless, but at a higher cost.
Ever
since, there has been a group of smaller companies that have been transforming
this space. Companies like Tracfone and MetroPCS are actually doing strong
business, and not just for the credit-challenged anymore. Now this service is
right for tens of millions of customers who just want to save money.
Traditional
post-paid wireless phone service is excellent, but it's also getting very
expensive. When you add voice, text, email and the Web, your bills are around
$100, give or take a little depending on the carrier.
Today
both AT&T (NYSE: T) Mobility and Verizon Wireless are the most expensive.
Sprint Nextel (NYSE: S) costs less but is still more than the smaller
competitors.
The
general rule is, the smaller or lesser known the company, the better deal they
have to offer. Otherwise customers would buy from the big brand-name companies
who spend billions advertising and marketing.
All
the majors offer a pre-paid service, which can cost less than post-paid and have
no long-term commitment. However, these cost more than others.
Smaller
companies like Cellular South and US Cellular often charge less for the same
good-quality service.
However
the lesser-known pre-paid carriers are suddenly providing the same valuable
service, on the same network connection, with the same quality and network
reach, at a much lower cost.
These
pre-paid services traditionally offered only the plain-Jane handsets, but they
are increasingly offering more sophisticated devices that do everything many
people need without all the extras that you may not use, but still have to pay
for.
Wouldn't
it make sense to have a handset that did what you needed, without having to pay
for all the other features you never use?
I
started looking at these and was both delighted and surprised at how much this
pre-paid industry segment has matured and gotten better. Do you want a second
phone? Or what about a primary phone that just costs less?
These
handsets are not expensive and there is no long-term commitment. You simply
continue as long as you want and you can cancel whenever you want.
MetroPCS
operates their own network, so I am not sure how good their coverage is, but
they are a major player in this pre-paid segment and continue to grow.
Tracfone
I understand re-sells AT&T Mobility and Verizon Wireless networks. That's
right. The coverage is the same as either network. Tracfone says in their ads
the coverage for every user is better than with either AT&T or Verizon
separately. I am not sure about that. If each device uses both networks, then
that is true. However if each device uses only one or the other, then it is not
true. In that case the service should be the same as either AT&T or Verizon.
Still a great choice.
Besides
that, the devices are solid, but more basic than the super smartphones like the
Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) iPhone or a typical Android. They do email and text
messaging and access the Web.
There
are a large variety of plans to choose from. There are unlimited plans for voice
and Web and text, and the cost is much less than the majors. Depending on the
network, you can get unlimited for as low as $45 per month. Compare that to
close to $100 from the majors.
On
the other end, if you seldom use the phone but still need one, you can get the
monthly service for free and just pay per minute. That's right -- if you don't
use it you don't pay for it, but still have it just in case. And there are many
plans to choose from in between depending on your needs.
Tracfone
also operates other pre-paid services like Net 10 and StraightTalk, depending on
the type device you want and how much you will use it. StraightTalk is their
top-of-the-line service offering the best phones and quite possibly the lowest
price on an unlimited plan. They also operate two other services called "Safelink
Wireless" and "Senior Value Cellphone."
Compare
this to AT&T, Verizon and Sprint pre-paid service, which charges $2 per day
for unlimited voice and text. Email and Web costs more. If you don't use the
phone that month, the cost is zero. If you do use it, the most it will cost is
about $60 per month, but remember there is no Internet connection or email at
that price.
Another
innovative idea is i wireless.com, which is a new type of wireless company that
does business with Kroger grocery stores. This uses the Sprint Nextel network
and offers low prices that save quite a bit from the traditional AT&T,
Verizon or Sprint. They also offer extra discounts when you shop at Kroger,
which makes it even better.
I
expect to see this partnership segment really start to grow rapidly over the
next few years, so they may have some new competition getting ready to start. It
is good for the companies and the customers.
There's
a growing number of these pre-paid services in markets around the country, large
and small. I am trying a few of these and they seem to offer good quality
service, at a lower price and with no long-term commitments.
OK,
so this pre-paid segment is looking better and better. Will this threaten the
majors? Not likely. Many people are interested in the brand names and the
top-end devices like the Apple iPhone or the latest Android. Most of their
pre-paid carriers don't offer real smartphones yet, but they do offer better
smartphones than last year, and they keep getting smarter.
I
have noticed i wireless.com is offering a Sanyo Android device, the same one
Sprint Nextel offers. Could this mean we'll start to see more of these super
smartphones available on pre-paid services? I think so. That's the direction we
are heading in.
There
seems to be a line being drawn down the middle of the marketplace. Some
customers want the super-powered smartphones and other customers want to save
money, but still get the same kind of quality and reliable service.
So
as this pre-paid market continues to grow and get better and act more like the
traditional side, the phones and devices will get better and stronger. The
prices continue to be less than traditional wireless, and you don't get locked
into long-term contracts. What could be better than that?
Pads
and tablet computers are starting to catch on in healthcare. John Halamka, the
CIO at Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center says the iPad will change the way
doctors practice medicine. This is right on target. But this is not just about
the Apple iPad; the entire pad and tablet computer industry will rapidly grow
into this segment.
This
is the early days of an enormous healthcare technology revolution, and this is
just one slice of a growing pie. Each new version will be lighter, more powerful
and do more than the last.
Not
only devices like these computers, but also new apps and software for the
healthcare community are starting to emerge. This is becoming a very exciting
time indeed. Not only do these devices turn on and off quickly, but the cameras
will start to be used for all sorts of things like imaging and radiology apps.
This
is the start of an entirely new and very exciting market segment that will
impact companies you already know and many you don't -- companies like Apple (iPad),
Research In Motion (Nasdaq: RIMM) (Playbook), Motorola (NYSE: MOT) (Xoom),
Lenovo, HP (NYSE: HPQ) (Slate), Dell (Nasdaq: DELL) (Streak), Samsung (Galaxy),
Fujitsu (Slate), Sylvania(MID tablet), Augen, Archos, ViewSonic, Coby, Boss,
Ican, Nextbook, Maylong (Universe) and many more.
We
have been paying lots of attention to this brand-new sector, but these devices
and software are getting ready to transform many industries, like health care.
http://www.ecommercetimes.com/story/Why-Dont-Doctors-and-Patients-eConnect-Yet-72082.html
http://www.ecommercetimes.com/story/72082.html
OPINION
By
Jeff Kagan
E-Commerce
Times
03/17/11
5:00 AM PT
Perhaps
as this eHealth segment matures, it will find itself. We just have to make sure
we play a role in the path it takes because this is not just about apps and
games. This is about our health, and the way we interact with our doctors and
the medical community, so we want to make sure we do this right. We want to make
sure we add to what we already have -- not simply replace one way with another
way that is not as good but is cheaper to deliver.
With
the recent growth of eHealth and mHealth, there has been a lot of excitement
about tomorrow's possibilities, but doctors and patients aren't interacting very
much via the Internet today.
While
doctors are beginning to post things like test results online, saving the nurse
a phone call, that is not improving the doctor-patient relationship. Not yet. In
fact, the lack of that personal call from the nurse can even create more
distance between the doctor's office and the patient.
For
my 'pick of the week' topic at the end of this column, I will discuss how
Optimum Lightpath gives Horizon Health Center, a Cablevision Systems company,
the ability to revive its aging telecom network -- a challenge faced by every
hospital and healthcare facility.
eHealth
is electronic health (think over networks like the Internet), while mHealth is
mobile health (think over your cellphone and wireless networks). Healthcare
providers and patients are getting excited about these new ways to reach out and
interact with each other and with patients.
What
is happening, however, seems to be that doctors are starting to change the way
they reach out to patients. They are not adding ways -- just changing. They
don't realize it yet, but they could start heading down the same path customer
care did in the 1990s.
Think
about what we saw happen to tech companies in the 90s. Before then, we used to
be able to call a customer service line and talk with an actual person who would
help us get a product working.
Then,
in the 90s, everything changed. Now when we have to get help, it's difficult to
call a company and talk with anyone. Today, we have to post a question or send
an email and wait several hours or even a day for a reply.
That
reply is never the answer, so we have to ask another question and wait another
day for a reply. This is customer-no-service, and it has distanced many
customers from many companies.
This
did not add to the ways customers could interact with a company -- it changed
the system. In other words, it may save the company money, but it backfires,
because what a company saves in money, it loses in customer happiness and,
therefore, loyalty.
At
this early stage, I think doctors do want this to work. They want to show a
meaningful use of these new technologies. They love the idea of electronic
health records. However, there is a wide gap between what doctors are providing
and what patients are expecting.
Perhaps
this is just the way it looks in these very early days. Perhaps it will get
better and satisfy both the patient and the doctor. We don't know yet. However
we have to stay alert and drive the changes the way we want to see them develop.
We cannot let this take on a life of its own, or we will regret it as doctors
and as patients.
Patient
portals are new, and today they are used for some tedious tasks like setting
appointments and refilling prescriptions. This is helpful to the doctor, because
it frees up time and reduces costs.
However,
meaningful interactions are just not occurring yet. The use of personal health
records, or PHRs, is increasing, but only roughly 10 percent of us use them so
far.
Next
week at CTIA Wireless in Orlando, I will visit the Qualcomm (Nasdaq: QCOM)
Wireless health pavilion and try to learn more about this. Microsoft (Nasdaq:
MSFT) HealthVault could be a part of the solution. There are so many new ideas
just starting to bubble up in the marketplace.
I
think this is an early problem that will work itself out over the next several
years if we keep our eyes on the ball.
In
speeches, I often compare this to apps on wireless phones. We saw smartphones
rise over the years from companies like RIM, maker of the BlackBerry. The sector
hit around 15 percent and had a few hundred apps. Then Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL)
jumped in with the iPhone. Then Google (Nasdaq: GOOG) with Android. Suddenly
this market segment is growing faster than the rest -- somewhere around 50
percent growth. Suddenly, there are several hundred thousand apps.
Yesterday,
the apps were just meaningless, fun games. Today, however, they are maturing and
becoming much more important to us. There are apps for health, finances and
work, as well as GPS and games.
Perhaps
as this eHealth segment matures, it will find itself. We just have to make sure
we play a role in the path it takes because this is not just about apps and
games. This is about our health, and the way we interact with our doctors and
the medical community, so we want to make sure we do this right.
We
want to make sure we add to what we already have -- not simply replace one way
with another way that is not as good but is cheaper to deliver. We want to be
happy patients and satisfied doctors. That is the goal we have to keep our eyes
on going forward.
Optimum
Lightpath is giving Horizon Health Center the ability to revive its aging
telecom network. The healthcare firm consolidates services for streamlined
communication across three facilities that share real-time critical data needs,
improve patient support and more.
Healthcare
providers face rapidly changing technology, government and patient care demands.
They are finding that their legacy telecom networks are preventing them from
staying head of the curve.
Optimum
Lightpath helps to overhaul and transform networks; it is helping Horizon
improve how it delivers care to more than 19,000 patients.
As
a result, the healthcare provider sees cost savings, boosts in network
performance, and improved operational efficiencies, while preparing for ongoing
enhancements.
Older
networks are getting overloaded with new tech. It becomes slow, drops calls, has
a tough time remaining stable. Is it an option to let our older
telecommunication services negatively impact the ability to serve patients?
This
is one of many stories of how wireless, telecom and technology are working with
the healthcare industry to bring it up to modern day expectations with eHealth
and mHealth.
We
don't want to be able to do more with the apps on our iPhones or Androids than
when we get to the hospital, do we?
Optimum
Lightpath is a division of Cablevision Systems Corporation. That's right -- the
cable television and telecommunications company. What else will we learn next?
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Jeff
Kagan is an E-Commerce Times columnist and industry analyst following wireless,
telecom and healthcare technology. He is also an author, speaker and consultant.
Email him at jeff@jeffKAGAN.com. Read the first chapters of his new book Life
After Stroke now available at Amazon.com and Barnes & Noble.
http://www.ecommercetimes.com/story/The-Fuse-Is-Lit-for-the-mHealth-Industry-Explosion-72033.html
http://www.ecommercetimes.com/story/72033.html
OPINION
The
Fuse Is Lit for the mHealth Industry Explosion
By
Jeff Kagan
E-Commerce
Times
03/10/11
5:00 AM PT
Whether
you are an investor, a worker, an executive, a doctor or a patient, you have a
stake in making the mHealth industry easy to understand. It will get confusing
enough in the next few years as things really start to explode. Remember the
1990s, when local and long distance and wireless and wireless data and the rest
exploded onto the scene? There has to be structure, or our building will fall as
it grows.
mHealth
is an exciting new industry that blends healthcare and wireless. In the next
couple of weeks, I will be meeting with many people representing companies and
new ideas in the mHealth industry at the annual CTIA show in Orlando. Some of
these are established large companies, while others are small and spunky
startups, but all have some very hot ideas and technologies they want to talk
about.
This
mobile health space is starting to get some traction, and I believe it is
getting ready to explode into the marketplace. That's the good part.
Plus,
in my Pick of the Week segment at the end of this column, I want to tell you
about Ascom, a wireless company that just got approval from the FDA for an
exciting new service called "Cardiomax."
Wireless
health is becoming one of the most exciting places to watch. It is transforming
the medical and health industry as the healthcare and wireless and telecom
industries come together. This is just the first inning in what I see turning
into a very exciting game.
I
am looking forward to watching it and talking about it as an industry analyst,
and to working with many companies as a consultant. The next few years may
transform the world of healthcare we are all familiar with. Some companies will
win and others will not, but the battle of ideas will be inspiring.
One
of the key problems that we have to address as this new industry segment
develops is what will we call it? There has to be one main category name, then
several categories under that, and then several subcategories under that.
As
an example, think about the term "telecom" as the main name for an
industry. Then subheadings can be wireless, VoIP, telephone, television and so
on. The next level of subcategories under "wireless" could be voice,
data, Web, video, GPS, photography and more.
So
let me ask you, what is the name for this entire wireless healthcare segment? We
see all the competing subheadings clamoring for attention, as it should be, but
what is the main segment name?
That's
right, there isn't one yet.
How
can that be? That is such a basic point. There is no central point on the chart
with a name and lines going out from that point for each segment, then more
lines going out from those points to the subsegments and so on.
We
have to create and agree on a name for the larger industry group so every
reporter and news story and advertisement and investment and conference
understands. One key term.
Let's
back up. The changing healthcare industry touches more than just wireless. It is
also involved with wireline. So first we should look at the larger world of
communications blending with health and give that the main name. Then under that
there could be other categories.
Think
about the smartphone industry. It was growing for years, led by companies like
RIM (BlackBerry) and Palm. Then, about four years ago, the marketplace changed
and exploded with the introduction of Apple's (Nasdaq: AAPL) iPhone, followed by
Google's (Nasdaq: GOOG) Android operating system.
Suddenly
the mobile app marketplace jumped from a few hundred to a few hundred thousand.
Suddenly, growth has skyrocketed from around 15 percent to somewhere around 50
percent. Suddenly, smartphones are changing the world, and we are just in the
very early stages.
The
same thing is about to happen here. There are so many names we bandy about every
day -- names like "wireless health," "mobile health,"
"cellular health," "mHealth," "eHealth" and many
more.
Whether
you are an investor, a worker, an executive, a doctor or a patient, you have a
stake in making this industry easy to understand. It will get confusing enough
in the next few years as things really start to explode. Remember the 1990s,
when local and long distance and wireless and wireless data and the rest
exploded onto the scene? There has to be structure, or our building will fall as
it grows.
There
are many exciting sectors growth will come from. Some of the new areas are
smartphones, tablet computers and new software all connected wirelessly. These
can and will revolutionize the medical experience. In addition to doctors, the
patients will have access to eHealth technology as well. This technology will
not only improve the entire process, but it can cut costs as well.
The
cost of healthcare has to come down as well. The current model may have to be
changed. There are competing forces battling the cost model right now. It is a
very interesting battle. It seems we do have a choice in the matter.
I
will write more on both sides of this in future columns.
So
send me your thoughts on the main name for this industry segment. I want to see
which names seem to get the most votes. I'll let you know the results in an
upcoming column.
Ever
wonder how doctors and nurses can keep an eye on patients in hospitals and react
quickly when something goes wrong? That's the challenge.
Ascom,
a North Carolina-based wireless communications company, has announced that
Cardiomax, which is a patient monitoring component within its ClinicalConneX
service, received 510(k) clearance from the Food and Drug Administration as a
medical device.
Cardiomax
will forward alarm information to Ascom handsets, pagers and LED signs. This
means bedside monitoring alarms can be forwarded throughout the system. This
will help doctors, nurses and the hospital stay connected during patient care.
Communications
solutions speed up response to alarms from medical monitoring equipment to
detect abnormal respiratory, cardiac and other conditions which providers
quicker response to emergency situation demands, according to Ascom.
Nurses
and physicians get status reports on request and alarms when conditions deviate
from preset values. Information does right into the pocket telephone, freeing
staff for other duties than watching monitors. Treatment can start earlier,
which improves outcomes and potentially saves lives, the company says.
The
new Medical Device Data System rule classifies Cardiomax as a "class
1" device. That means it is low risk, and that means it is exempt from
premarket review.
Now
Ascom is going to deploy the system nationwide. The CEO in the United States is
Chad West, and he says they have a first mover advantage -- for a little while,
anyway -- as they deploy the system nationwide.
This
is a part of the revolution of many new and innovative ideas that are erupting
right now, which blend healthcare and wireless and telecom technologies.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Jeff
Kagan is an E-Commerce Times columnist and industry analyst following wireless,
telecom and healthcare technology. He is also an author, speaker and consultant.
Email him at jeff@jeffKAGAN.com.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
http://www.ecommercetimes.com/story/How-Nokia-and-Microsoft-Can-Make-It-Work-71975.html
http://www.ecommercetimes.com/story/71975.html
OPINION
By
Jeff Kagan
E-Commerce
Times
03/03/11
5:00 AM PT
Nokia
and Microsoft's problem is that they keep competing on Google's and Apple's
terms. The solution is really simple. What if they aim at a different target?
What if Apple and Google aim at the youth marketplace, and Nokia and Microsoft
aim at the older adult space? This has not been tried yet. The devices don't
actually have to be that different. Just the marketing to create a different
image in the mind of the customer. That's all it would take.
In
this column, you will find answers to how Nokia (NYSE: NOK) and Microsoft (Nasdaq:
MSFT) can succeed in the smartphone marketplace, and even how RIM can be saved.
First I'll explore the current problem, then offer my solution.
Through
the late 1990s Motorola (NYSE: MOT) led. It missed the change from analog to
digital, though, and over the last decade, Nokia grew to become the No. 1
cellular handset maker. During the last several years, the tide began turning
again. Nokia tried just about everything it could think of, but still could not
break into the fast-growing smartphone space.
Microsoft
has had the same problem breaking into smartphones, and it has been trying for
even longer. These two companies' solution is to get together. To pool their
resources and deliver something that will knock our socks off.
The
question I have is simple: Will this work? No way to know at this point. Either
they will be able to pull the rabbit out of the hat and delight everyone, or
they won't.
Even
though these are two large, established and successful companies, getting
together and becoming successful is still a very long shot. Remember, Microsoft
struggled for years.
Making
Waves
There
is a solution, however. Remember the Wave I discussed a few weeks ago? I think
it is clear that these two companies have passed over the top and are on the way
down the other side. What they have to do now is become hot again, relevant
again in a new and growing area -- like smartphones.
I
can see the problem plain as day, and I can see the solution. Neither of them
has solved the problem yet. It is easy to explain, but apparently very difficult
to fix for these companies. Yet they have to.
First,
what they have to do is update the technology and the brand. They also have to
get closer to the customer in ways we have not seen except in companies like
Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) and Google (Nasdaq: GOOG). That is it. Simple. This is not
brain surgery.
Winning
depends on the right thinking starting at the top and working its way down
through the entire organization. Apple and Google have incredible new technology
and an incredible new brand identity wrapping the customer up in a special
feeling of youth and excitement and adventure. They feel connected to these
brands and breakthrough technologies. They feel connected. Period.
However,
as this new and exploding industry begins to mature, there is a new opportunity.
A large segment of older customers who are interested in what these smartphones
and apps can do for them don't feel as comfortable with them as younger people
do.
This
mature segment still buys from Apple and Google because these companies seem to
have a lock on the smartphone space.
mHealth
on the Horizon
Remember,
the smartphone space is not new. Just a handful of years ago, it was led by
RIM's BlackBerry and Palm, and its focus was on the business community. Since
these newcomers have entered, the excitement has spread beyond this segment.
The
smartphone business has matured to another level. At this point, I think the
smartphone pie can be sliced in different ways. The Wave has crested for
first-generation smartphone products. BlackBerry is now crossing over the top
and will start its decline unless RIM can reinvent. So this idea is important
for RIM to consider.
This
problem is not just about Nokia and Microsoft. It's about the changing
marketplace. It not just about youth and excitement. It is about the growth and
maturing of the app marketplace.
There
were only a few hundred apps four years ago. Now there are a few hundred
thousand apps for the iPhone. Fewer for Android, but they are catching up. RIM
BlackBerry has fewer in comparison, but is also still growing. Why?
The
apps marketplace is exploding. We are starting to see an increasing number of
important apps, not just games. Many of these are for our health. We can plug a
blood pressure strap into the iPhone and not only monitor our own stats, but
send the information to our doctor, plus get useful tips to motivate us and keep
us on the right track. There are so many of these really great ideas that are
just starting to hit the marketplace.
In
fact, I have heard predictions that 500 million people will be using these
medical health apps within five years. Frankly, I think we will do even more
than that worldwide.
mHealth
Apps are growing rapidly. So are eHealth Apps. I have been getting calls from
companies attending this year's CTIA conference who want to meet with me. This
is an enormous opportunity for the companies, investors, patients and doctors.
Make
It New Again
Today,
Apple and Google battle it out in the marketplace for all customers. So what is
the solution for companies like Nokia and Microsoft?
Rather
than join that battle, why not redefine the space, create a new segment, and
lead it. That is the key.
Think
about Nokia and Microsoft. The job of updating their technology and their brand
should not be that difficult. However, both keep shooting blanks. The problem is
they keep competing on Google's and Apple's terms.
The
solution is really simple. They have tried and failed to battle the changing
marketplace on Google's and Apple's terms. What if they aim at a different
target? What if Apple and Google aim at the youth marketplace, and Nokia and
Microsoft aim at the older adult space? This has not been tried yet.
I
have heard this so many times. Many adults like the idea of what is happening
with smartphones, but simply think Apple and Google are overkill. They like the
idea, but they want a version that is targeted at them -- not their kids.
The
devices don't actually have to be that different. Just the marketing to create a
different image in the mind of the customer. That's all it would take.
With
the amazing new line of apps pouring into the marketplace, there are plenty
aimed at the older adult community as well as younger customers. In fact, these
apps continue to grow. So why are older adults not marketed to? Good question.
The
app marketplace was originally thought of as youth-focused, but in recent years
we have seen quite a few hard-hitting apps. There may be tens of thousands of
medical and health apps today so far, and we are just in the first inning of
this game. Does this make sense?
Boiling
It Down
Don't
compete directly with Apple and Google. Let them compete against each other.
Don't compete with them on their terms. They will win.
Instead,
create a completely new segment. A place for older adults who also have needs
for smartphones and apps. A place that is welcoming and embracing for the older
adult community.
Marketing
would be different than before. A new message for a new target audience. This is
a brand new space. There is plenty of room for a new segment and a
well-thought-out marketing strategy.
Sure,
if you had a choice, you would rather be king in the youth-oriented marketplace.
However, since there are two new kings battling right now, it might not be wise
to enter that fray. Why not be king of the older-adult marketplace?
Can
Nokia and Microsoft do it? Can RIM? Sure they can. We expect something new every
year from both Apple and Google -- and we seem to get it, don't we? Why not a
completely new market segment that can be dominated by Microsoft and Nokia and
RIM?
This
seems to make too much sense. The marketplace is enormous and continuing to grow
rapidly. There will be different segments. The companies that create these
segments generally lead in them. Create this new space now. Create the new brand
names that lead this new slice.
Growth
will look different. It will be a different model. However, it is still growth
and will still be welcomed by the customers. In turn, that will make investors
happy as the companies grow, which makes workers happy.
This
is a way for these companies to finally win in the smartphone space. To create
the next Wave, and to grow for the next decade and beyond.
The
problem is, these are companies are used to leading the space. Can they
re-throttle themselves so they can succeed? That is the question.
Smell
the Coffee
I
predicted this in a series of speeches and columns a few years ago. No one
wanted to listen at the time. They can't ignore it now. The youthful spark may
have passed to Google and Apple, but the opportunity is still there for Nokia
and Microsoft to create a new segment and win. They are strong companies with a
desire to win.
Romance
the customers in new ways. Once this flag is in the ground, you can then expand
your brand into the youth marketplace from this position of strength. That
should be a future chapter, but it could be a natural progression for customers
who start out as young adults and grow.
So,
Steve Ballmer and Stephen Elop, I suggest you do more than just create a new
company. Instead, create your own new sector -- and lead it.
That
may be the smartest next step. Everyone wants you to succeed, but you have to
play the right game. Media, customers, investors and workers will be on your
side if you get up and hit it out of the park. This is your chance. Batter up.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Jeff
Kagan is an E-Commerce Times columnist and industry analyst following wireless,
telecom and healthcare technology. He is also an author, speaker and consultant.
Email him at jeff@jeffKAGAN.com.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
http://www.ecommercetimes.com/story/Telephone-Company-Investors-Are-Baffled-71934.html
http://www.ecommercetimes.com/story/71934.html
OPINION
By
Jeff Kagan
E-Commerce
Times
02/24/11
5:00 AM PT
While
Windstream is growing through acquisition, the actual local phone business that
is its core is shrinking. Each company it acquires wrestles with the same
shrinking business threat. After being acquired, that does not disappear. It
continues. So, while Windstream continues to grow through acquisitions, which is
the good part of the story, it also continues to shrink because of the other
side of the coin.
Where
should you invest, what should you avoid, why and when? These are the basic
questions every investor wrestles with. There are so many companies in the
wireless, telecom and healthcare industries, and they are no longer on the same
track. Some are strong and growing rapidly and leading, while others are
struggling. Even the leaders have things to be aware of.
I
recently gave a speech to an investor group. I get invited to these meetings
regularly. Let me share some of what I discussed. I am an industry analyst --
not a stock analyst -- but I have been following this industry for 25 years and
have seen all the different waves of ups and downs.
I
have seen how changes in the industry lead to some companies succeeding and
growing, while other companies struggle just to keep their head above water.
Seeing who will win and lose tomorrow can be difficult, but that's investing.
I'd
like to take a look at some of the top companies, how they have done so far, and
what the next few years looks like for each of them, starting this week with
some of the local phone companies. In upcoming columns, I'll focus on different
industry sectors.
The
Baby Bells are an interesting place to start. Ten years ago, the industry looked
very different. The local phone line business was still growing. These companies
were the big players in the industry. Since then the industry has transformed
itself and is still doing so.
Today,
instead of seven Baby Bells, there are only three: Verizon, AT&T (NYSE: T)
and Qwest. There are no separate long distance giants since AT&T and MCI
were acquired.
Today
the Baby Bells compete with the cable television companies, with wireless
companies, VoIP companies and assorted others. They offer big bundles of
services including telephone, wireless, Internet and television.
Verizon
and Verizon Wireless are very well run, showing real strength and innovation
over the last decade. As the industry changes, they are transforming themselves
as well.
A
few months ago, I spoke with Peter Thonis, Verizon's chief communications
officer, and he said the company is changing. It has sold off many access lines
and is now more heavily focused on wireless and FiOS. Verizon also sees
cloud-based services as a larger opportunity going forward.
Verizon's
traditional wireline phone business is on the downside of the wave, but its
wireless, FiOS and other businesses are on the growth side.
Its
wireless business had not been growing as quickly as some competitors over
recent years, but its new focus on smartphones like the Droid line and Apple's (Nasdaq:
AAPL) iPhone have put it on the right path, and rapid growth is now occurring.
CEO
Ivan Seidenberg is retiring later this year, and he has successfully transformed
the company over the last two decades. Lowell McAdam, who ran wireless, will
take his place. I have watched Lowell over the years and have been impressed so
far. He has his work cut out for him as the industry continues to change.
Verizon performance as a competitor has been very good to date.
AT&T
and AT&T Mobility are similar to Verizon in many ways. They are the other
800-pound gorillas in the room. They are also doing strong business on both the
wireline side and the wireless side. AT&T has a few areas to keep an eye on
as well.
Like
Verizon, its traditional wireline business is shrinking, but its wireless and
U-verse television offering is growing. There is plenty of growth to come, and
this looks good so far.
One
reason for worry is that much of its growth in wireless in recent years has come
from its exclusive Apple iPhone offering. Now Verizon Wireless also carries the
iPhone, so the natural question is how badly will this hurt AT&T Mobility?
We don't know yet, but this will not be a positive for the company.
However,
AT&T is still strong and growing. I have been very impressed with new CEO
Randall Stephenson and his performance so far. Ralph de la Vega heads up the
wireless business, and he has a strong success record as well. This looks like a
good strong and growing company at present.
Larry
Solomon heads up corporate communications and focuses on keeping the company
looking strong and healthy. Based on what we know about the company, this seems
to be going well. So far, this new company looks good.
We
have to remember however that this large and strong company is brand new. Just a
few short years ago, it was the much smaller SBC Communications, based in San
Antonio, Texas. It went on an almost mad acquisition spree. It acquired
AT&T, AT&T Wireless, BellSouth and Cingular within a very short period
of time.
This
transformative period can be taxing to any company as it tries to merge and meld
the many different cultures.
Many
workers and customers have reached out to me to express their dissatisfaction
with the company right now. Many others are, of course, happy. So it depends on
what occurs over the next several years. We'll keep our eyes on it. There is
plenty of potential risk, but so far so good at Ma Bell.
Qwest
(NYSE: Q) is another story. This company has gone through the wringer in the
last 15 years. Changing from a standard Baby Bell, US West, to the current Qwest
has been a challenge. It covers roughly the same territory it did from the
beginning. It looked like it might have been on a success track in the late
1990s, until telecom hit a brick wall. After that, the company struggled to
survive.
It
brought in a new CEO, Dick Notebaert, who ran Ameritech and managed to save
Qwest. That was the good part, but he was not able to grow the company. Now it
has a new CEO, Edward Mueller, and he has been struggling as well.
This
company does not offer its own wireless services. It resells Verizon Wireless
after reselling Sprint (NYSE: S) for year. Surprisingly and disappointingly,
this is not a very successful part of its offering.
I'll
discuss Sprint Nextel in an upcoming column focused on the wireless sector.
Qwest
offers high-speed Internet and resells satellite television. It seems to market
many services, but it doesn't own many of them, so its innovation is just not
there. Neither is its marketing . It has been limping along compared with bigger
sisters Verizon and AT&T.
Qwest
has struggled for years. Now it is being acquired by CenturyLink. This is one of
two smaller and more rural local phone companies that seems to be doing strong
business so far.
CenturyLink
is one of the smaller local phone companies that didn't get much attention until
recently. It has been growing through acquisition. It has been acquiring smaller
local phone companies. Around the United States, there are many small, local
phone companies. It's not just the large Baby Bells.
Sprint
had a local phone business that it spun off into a company called "Embarq,"
which was acquired by CenturyLink. The same thing is happening with Qwest. In
fact, after the acquisition, CenturyLink will be the No. 3 baby bell after
Verizon and AT&T.
This
is a small, but rapidly growing company. It is not as advanced as the other Baby
Bells, but it doesn't have the same competitive threat either. It loses local
phone business every year, but not at the same rate as the Baby Bells. It loses
business more slowly.
That
is good; however, the company does lose business, and that is a concern --
especially since its is not building its own television service to compete with
the cable television industry and bring in new business.
CenturyLink
is experimenting with a wireless offering. It offers wireless in a few markets.
I don't know whether this will be successful or not. Remember, while AT&T,
Verizon and Sprint do well with wireless, Qwest has not. Will CenturyLink? That
is an important question.
So
far, generally speaking, the company looks to continue its growth through
acquisitions, but longer term is unsure. We'll have to keep our eyes on it.
Another
similar company is Windstream. This was Alltel until it broke up a few years
ago. The wireless business was acquired by Verizon Wireless. The local phone
business changed its name to "Windstream."
This
is a strong and rapidly growing rural local phone company like CenturyLink. It
has made so many acquisitions in recent years it is growing larger and stronger
every year. That is the good part.
The
part that I worry about is while it is growing through acquisition, the actual
local phone business that is its core is shrinking. Each company it acquires
wrestles with the same shrinking business threat. After being acquired, that
does not disappear. It continues.
So,
while Windstream continues to grow through acquisitions, which is the good part
of the story, it also continues to shrink because of the other side of the coin.
As
long as this company continues to acquire, I see it remaining strong and
growing. However, once the acquisition wave slows, which it always does, I worry
about its growth potential. It does not offer its own wireless or television
services. It resells satellite television, and that is good -- but not as good
as owning and controlling like the Baby Bells.
I
gave a speech to Windstream's CEO Jeff Gardner and its board of directors at a
meeting several months ago, applauding its successes, and also stressing these
longer-term concerns.
Its
performance is strong to date. It should remain strong for a while. Long term it
is not as clear. We'll have to keep our eyes on this as well.
Where
are these five companies on the Wave, which I discussed in a previous column?
Verizon
and AT&T are on the growth side for now. Their local phone businesses are
now shrinking, but they have transformed both companies well over the years into
wireless and television. Qwest is on the falling side; however, it is now being
acquired by CenturyLink, so perhaps it will get better.
Even
though both CenturyLink and Windstream are losing local phone customers, they
are bucking the trend by making acquisitions. So they are still on the growth
side of the wave. When this activity slows, I think they will switch and be on
the other side of the Wave, unless they can transform themselves. What is their
strategy going forward?
These
are just five companies in one sector of the rapidly growing and changing local
phone side of the telecom industry. There are other sectors like wireless,
television, Internet, cable television and the very rapidly growing and changing
eHealth and mHealth industries in healthcare.
The
good news is the industry in general is strong and growing. Individually, some
companies are doing well, while other companies are not. Even among the
companies that are doing well today, there are several signs to keep our eyes on
that could affect them in the future. How they handle these challenges will make
the difference going forward.
We
have to watch all these companies for any changes in their positions as the
industry changes, but right now things look strong in this sector in general.
Any change in leadership does have potential risks and rewards, so we'll have to
keep our eyes on it.
In
the coming weeks, I will share my thoughts on the companies that are leading as
well as those that are struggling in other sectors as well.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Jeff
Kagan is an E-Commerce Times columnist and industry analyst following wireless,
telecom and healthcare technology. He is also an author, speaker and consultant.
Email him at jeff@jeffKAGAN.com.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
http://www.ecommercetimes.com/story/mHealth-A-Funny-Things-Happening-on-My-Way-to-CTIA-71882.html
http://www.ecommercetimes.com/story/71882.html
OPINION
mHealth:
A Funny Thing's Happening on My Way to CTIA
By
Jeff Kagan
E-Commerce
Times
02/17/11
5:00 AM PT
The
mobile health industry segment is in the first inning of a brand new game. It
will grow and change so much in coming years. Some ideas and companies will be
bright for a short time, then burn out, while other companies and ideas will
last. Choosing the right companies will make all the difference -- whether you
are an investor, an employee, a patient, doctor or hospital.
As
I prepare to attend the CTIA show in Orlando, Fla., next month, I am getting
calls and emails from healthcare companies wanting to meet with me. That is
amazing. The lines that separated healthcare and wireless are blurring. We are
in the early stages of the healthcare industry working with the wireless and
telecom industry to create an entirely new business segment with loads of new
opportunities, risks and challenges.
At
the end of this piece I will also discuss a new report on healthcare
opportunities from research firm In-Stat.
"mHealth"
and "eHealth" are not only new words, but also new worlds. In recent
years, they have come to represent brand new ways of doing things in healthcare
-- in fact, new ways of looking at the way we do everything in the medical
community. This is one of the most exciting opportunities we have seen in our
lifetimes, and it is still in the very early stages.
So
what do these new terms mean? "mHealth," or mobile health, is simply
health supported by mobile devices, according to Wikipedia. mHealth uses mobile
communications networks and devices such as mobile phones and PDAs for health
services and information. Before long, I'll bet we will start to see TV
commercials saying, there is an app for that -- but it will be a medical app.
"eHealth"
is the other new term, and it refers to healthcare supported by electronic
processes and communications. It started around 10 years ago, and it uses
electronic and digital devices and processes in healthcare and health
informatics. It also utilizes the Internet and involves electronic health
records, telemedicine, consumer health informatics, healthcare information
systems and so on.
Think
about this as a revolution that is beginning to transform healthcare. In fact,
doctors will have to hire the electronics experts they need to work all this
technology. This is a new opportunity for service companies and individuals.
Just
consider all the coming possibilities. Doctors can now begin to treat patients
remotely. Doctors and hospitals can collect medical and health data and even
deliver healthcare in new ways. eHealth lets monitoring take place from a
patient's home with equipment connected wirelessly to the doctors office. It
brings new tools and technologies to hospitals to care for us in a much more
advanced way. And it is in the market right now.
There
are already unlimited opportunities, and these are just the very early days.
Objectives include access to healthcare and health-related information, as well
as improved ability to diagnose and track diseases. New technology will be in
the doctor's office, the hospital, and even at home. This opens all sorts of new
opportunities like training health workers, and many other areas as well.
Over
the last 25 years as an analyst, I have worked with every major wireless, local
and long distance phone company, as well as many others -- like equipment
makers, Internet companies and so on.
Now
I am hearing from a growing number of companies with new ideas in the enormous
healthcare field. I have to say this is getting very exciting for everyone,
including patients, investors, workers and the entire industry.
I
recently met with a company that wanted to brief me on its new healthcare
technology that has not been released yet. It also needed advice on dealing with
the wireless and wire line industry. This is the future. Breaking through all
the noise in the crowded and noisy marketplace is always one of the biggest
challenges.
Several
years ago, I had a serious health issue. As I struggled to recover, I
experienced many of these brand new and exciting technologies. I learned that in
healthcare, things change quickly. In just the last few years, many of those
brand new technologies have already been replaced by the next best thing. It's
truly a very fast-moving and changing industry.
Over
the last couple of years, I have been contacted by an increasing number of
healthcare companies wanting to brief me on their new technologies. Many of them
are very interesting and may indeed be valuable to all of us, including our
families and friends.
There
are so many new advancements to focus on. Apps are those simple games or
software tools with icons on smartphones. Their growth has exploded in the last
few years.
Health
apps are brand new, and they are going to be very important going forward. They
can connect doctors and patients to provide more thorough healthcare. They can
let patients communicate with their doctors on their prescriptions and test
results, and prompt ongoing adjustments.
Diabetics
can send in daily numbers on their glucose to let the doctor more closely follow
their progress. Dieticians and weight loss specialists can communicate with
patients on a daily basis, checking weight loss progress and sending
inspirational messages.
There
is an unlimited number of ideas and opportunities that are just beginning.
Healthcare is starting to change quickly, thanks to these wireless and wire line
technologies.
This
is the reason a growing number of healthcare companies are attending the CTIA
show. They are trying to reach out to the wireless industry and connect. This
wave of innovation looks like it will be the next big wave in wireless and
healthcare.
I
have to admit, I was initially surprised by the growing number of healthcare
companies that have been attending these shows over recent years. However, when
you think about it, this is exactly what we should expect going forward. It's
all about blending industries to achieve new waves of products and services.
Truthfully,
I think this is very exciting. This is an entirely new industry segment with the
same huge opportunities for growth we have seen in the tech industry. The good
news is that we are just in the early stages.
At
CTIA, I normally just meet with AT&T (NYSE: T) Mobility, Verizon Wireless,
Sprint Nextel (NYSE: S), T-Mobile and so on, but now there is a new universe of
very interesting and innovative companies capturing my imagination.
What
a shift... or is it? It is not something I am creating. Instead it is a new wave
I am reacting to. It is an enormous opportunity for everyone, and it is just
beginning. How will this impact you, your company and your industry segment?
Where will new opportunities pop up that are not on your radar yet?
This
entire new industry segment is in the first inning of a brand new game. It will
grow and change so much in coming years. Some ideas and companies will be bright
for a short time, then burn out, while other companies and ideas will last.
Choosing the right companies will make all the difference -- whether you are an
investor, an employee, a patient, doctor or hospital.
I
will write about the many exciting ideas and companies I learn about. We don't
yet know what this will look like going forward, but this is a great place to
start. This changing marketplace is truly amazing.
A
new report from In-Stat forecasts US$4.5 billion will be spent on wireless data
by the U.S. healthcare industry by 2014. If that weren't good enough news,
remember this is just one slice of a very large pie. That is an incredible new
opportunity for the wireless and healthcare world, isn't it?
The
primary objectives in healthcare are around immediacy and mobility, according to
In-Stat, which notes that medical caregivers now seek portable access to data,
patient status, records, diagnostic tools, prescriptions and medications.
This
will change what has become business-as-usual in the entire growing industry.
Just think about this as the very early years in this brand new wonderful world
of opportunity unfold for patients, companies, workers and investors.
It's
time to buckle up. The ride has begun.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Jeff Kagan is an E-Commerce Times columnist and industry
analyst following wireless, telecom and healthcare technology. He is also an
author, speaker and consultant. Email him at
jeff@jeffKAGAN.com.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
http://www.ecommercetimes.com/story/71832.html
OPINION
And
Now It Begins: The Media Will Sour on the Verizon iPhone
By
Jeff Kagan
E-Commerce
Times
02/10/11
5:00 AM PT
This
is the day the media starts focusing on everything that is going wrong with the
new Verizon and iPhone marriage. As we follow this story, we may begin to think
these two companies are just bumbling idiots. These articles won't mention that
the problem comes from an unbridled tsunami of orders suddenly appearing out of
nowhere.
Watch
today as Verizon Wireless sells its first Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) iPhone: The media
will change its focus from writing positive stories to negative stories. Over
the next several days and weeks, we will read startling pieces about what is
going wrong. This is the same news we have been so thrilled with over the last
few weeks. So why the change -- and how long will it last?
We
know this is what will happen, because this is what has happened following every
launch by AT&T (NYSE: T) Mobility and Apple over the last several years.
There are good and bad stories, but the media loves to find what's wrong and
focus on it. It makes great stories. It's a build you up, then tear you down,
then build you back up model.
This
should be expected, so don't take it all too seriously. Not yet anyway. If the
stories don't die down after a few days or weeks, then we can start worrying.
The
question is, can Verizon handle the sudden and massive flow of new customers and
wireless data demands? AT&T Mobility could not, and it has had years of
experience dealing with Apple launches. What makes us think Verizon Wireless
will do any better coming at this with no experience?
Every
year, we see AT&T Mobility buckle under the massive Apple demand curve when
the new iPhone is released. Even after that initial pressure eases up, AT&T
still struggles in certain markets with unyielding wireless data demand on an
ongoing basis.
It's
not a bad problem to have, but it is still a problem that needs to be solved.
Verizon
says it is ready; however, that's what AT&T says too. What will happen next
with Verizon Wireless? We'll have to wait and see -- but after watching the
iPhone over the last several years, I think it's pretty obvious.
I
expect Verizon Wireless will have some successes and some problems, and the
problems are what the media will love to focus on first. Sure there will be
positive stories, but for the first time, there will also be lots of negative
stories.
This
is the day the media starts focusing on everything that is going wrong with the
new Verizon and iPhone marriage. As we follow this story, we may begin to think
these two companies are just bumbling idiots. These articles won't mention that
the problem comes from an unbridled tsunami of orders suddenly appearing out of
nowhere.
We
have seen this year after year with AT&T Mobility as the next new Apple
iPhone hits the market. The negative stories are not really an accurate
representation, but they still get the spotlight for a while.
If
we are smart we can get a chuckle over it, but we shouldn't pay much attention
to it. That's just the marketplace reacting. When it gets pinched, it yells
"ouch!" That's it at first. Makes great stories to cover. Nothing
worse that that.
That's
unless it is worse than that. Unless Verizon screws it up and users have
problems on an ongoing basis. Then this becomes a real problem, and Verizon will
have to rush to catch up to it.
However,
watching the demand curve AT&T deals with, it never seems to catch up.
Still, even with all these problems, AT&T Mobility still seems to win big
with the iPhone and in the stock market -- if not in the media or with customer
satisfaction.
Even
if Verizon has problems, I still think it will do fine financially. Customers
want this. The only question is, will it be a good experience for Verizon
Wireless?
Verizon
better brace itself. It has worked hard to shine its Apple, but its system will
likely choke in the early days as well, at least in some spots. And those are
the points the media will focus on.
As
I said, it's a good problem to have, but it is still a problem. There are lots
of customers lining up in the early days. Some will have a great sign-up
experience, and some won't. That is what will be focused on -- and that will
take some of the shine off Verizon's Apple.
Actually,
I think Verizon may take some pressure off AT&T, and even its customers will
have a better experience.
How
many iPhones will Verizon sell? How many new customers will Verizon Wireless
win? How much business will AT&T Mobility lose? What will be AT&T's next
move to make up for the coming loss? How badly will AT&T be hurt? Apple will
win either way. It will sell millions of devices through each player. There are
so many questions we are keeping our eyes on.
Just
remember, there will be a flood of negative and sometimes funny stories coming
up. How long they will last is the question. We will all have to keep our eyes
on it.
Congratulations,
Verizon Wireless. The easy part is now over. Now comes the hard part of keeping
up with insatiable Apple demand. Good luck!
In
my Pick of the Week segment, I want to tell you about the Shriners Hospitals for
Children in Tampa Fla., which just announced a 672 percent return on investment.
This
was thanks to using MEMdata's medical equipment procurement model, Shriners
said. This model ensures open access to new technology while it also achieves
competitive pricing on all kinds of equipment in the hospital.
Way
to go! Keeping medical costs down can only help. Who knows? Maybe our health
insurance will come down... Naaa.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Jeff
Kagan is an E-Commerce Times columnist and industry analyst following wireless,
telecom and healthcare technology. He is also an author, speaker and consultant.
Email him at jeff@jeffKAGAN.com.
http://www.ecommercetimes.com/story/71782.html
http://www.ecommercetimes.com/story/ATT-Verizon-and-Sprint-Tell-Different-Truths-71782.html
OPINION
By
Jeff Kagan
E-Commerce
Times
02/03/11
5:00 AM PT
There
has to be truth in marketing and advertising, or it will increasingly be
ignored. Meaningless. Not truth, just a jingle. Is that what we really want?
Companies need advertising and marketing to tell the marketplace about their
offerings and compete. Buyers also need it to help them choose. There is a real
and honest need for creative and truthful marketing. When done with truth,
everyone wins.
Which
wireless provider is doing the best job? Listening to them gets confusing. It's
like me saying that I am the slimmest, healthiest and best-looking wireless
analyst on this airplane (I'm flying to the west coast to give a speech). Now
that line has as much truth in it as a load of horse manure -- but technically,
since I am the only wireless analyst on this plane, I guess it is true.
Listening to the major wireless providers strut their stuff is much like that --
and that is the problem we have to solve.
Every
wireless provider claims to be No. 1 in something. The result is that the
consumer is confused. That is the whole point, I think. Keep customers confused
so they can't buy based on anything real. That way only the warm and fuzzy
messages of advertising , public relations and marketing will convince them to
buy.
This
is a dangerous path to go down. We should think this through and decide if this
is really the path we want to be on.
In
that unreal world, every carrier looks like it is No. 1 in something. There used
to be comparisons of subscriber numbers. That gave us a simple list of the No.
1, 2, 3 and 4 wireless carriers. Since this is what we wanted to know, it
worked.
However,
things have been changing. Carriers seem not to be satisfied being anywhere
other than No. 1. In addition, as wireless data and tablet computers enter the
space, the term "subscriber" can mean different things. If carriers
simply told us their number in the same areas, we could easily compare.
Unfortunately, they don't.
The
wireless industry is moving away from a world of telling the truth to a world of
each company telling a version of the truth that makes it sound better. This
clouds the industry and makes a simple decision very complicated.
Wireless
voice and wireless data are becoming two different areas to follow. So are
prepaid and postpaid. There are also individual customers, family plans and
those on corporate plans. Oh, and don't forget all the wholesale customers.
Getting the point?
Should
an Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) iPad user on AT&T (NYSE: T) Mobility count the same
as a voice-only customer on Sprint Nextel (NYSE: S) or a Droid user on Verizon
Wireless? Mixing and matching all these new areas makes all this confusion very
obvious. However, customers and investors don't have a clue who is really No. 1
in any particular area.
One
example is when both carriers announced their numbers last week. Over the last
several years, AT&T Mobility had the lead in subscribers and was happy to
tell the world. However, Verizon Wireless recently made an acquisition and now
holds the No. 1 spot. The problem is that AT&T got used to saying it was No.
1. Not being able to say that anymore must have felt like withdrawal.
Not
to worry. There is a solution at hand. Not wanting to sound like it has fallen
behind Verizon, AT&T quietly changed the metric it reported. That's the
problem.
Suddenly,
instead of just counting wireless phone users, AT&T started counting users
of all wireless connections -- people using things like iPads, laptops with
built-in WiFi, and anything else it could lump together.
So,
when reporting its quarterly numbers, AT&T claimed it had 2.8 million net
adds in Q4. It wanted the world to think it was ahead. AT&T decided to count
95.5 million subscribers.
Does
this mean it is ahead of Verizon once again? Not really. AT&T is getting the
benefit of confusing the marketplace.
The
problem is that Verizon reported its numbers a day or two earlier, saying its Q4
adds were fewer than 1 million, and its total was 94.1 million.
Sounds
like AT&T is winning, doesn't it? The truth is, if Verizon counted the way
AT&T counted, it would add 8.1 million "other connections" to the
94.1 million wireless subscribers for a total of 102.2 million.
So
when you compare AT&T to Verizon, apples to apples, AT&T has 95.5
million subscribers and Verizon has 102.2 million. That is the truth.
Things
look much different when you blow the fog of confusion away, don't they?
No
matter how AT&T tries to spin the truth, Verizon Wireless still leads in
today's wireless marketplace if you compare apples to apples.
This
is an example of marketing hype spinning out of control. There has to be truth
in marketing and advertising, or it will increasingly be ignored. Meaningless.
Not truth, just a jingle.
Is
that what we really want? Companies need advertising and marketing to tell the
marketplace about their offerings and compete. Buyers also need it to help them
choose. There is a real and honest need for creative and truthful marketing.
When done with truth, everyone wins.
The
problem is that when words are carefully spun into a web to try and capture
every customer, the truth is eventually lost.
The
problem is the telling of half-truths in an effort to confuse the marketplace
and hope that confusion wins business.
The
problem is truth -- or lack of it.
Marketing
at some companies is starting to spin out of control. Instead of trying to
improve themselves, and improve the marketplace and ultimately win more
business, some companies are trying to confuse everyone. That does not provide a
better experience for customers. This is a very shortsighted approach, isn't it?
Companies
can spend years trying to build a relationship with the marketplace, and then
can blow it all in the blink of an eye.
The
wireless industry had better come up with a consistent standard -- one that lets
companies compete and that simplifies the buying process for customers.
Otherwise, both the customers and the carriers will lose.
Customers
will lose because they will not be able to understand the real difference
between carriers. The carriers will lose because they will have blown their
credibility, and they will not win customers back for a long time.
The
industry has to agree to new rules going forward. The customer wins in a clear
marketplace, and that is what matters. That is what will keep competitors
improving in order to stay competitive and to win. Otherwise, I will be able to
keep saying I am the best-looking wireless analyst on this plane and keep
getting away with it! And do we really want that?
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Jeff Kagan is an E-Commerce Times columnist and industry analyst following wireless, telecom and healthcare technology. He is also an author, speaker and consultant. Email him at jeff@jeffKAGAN.com.
http://www.ecommercetimes.com/story/71729.html
OPINION
How
IT Is Changing Healthcare for Better and for Worse
By
Jeff Kagan
E-Commerce
Times
01/27/11
5:00 AM PT
This
is an exciting time of change in the field of healthcare technology. New systems
and devices are making it much more convenient for doctors to find and share
patient information. However, with this opportunity also comes risk. New
technologies sometimes demand greater attention from the doctor, at the
patient's expense. And the possibility of data input error is a source of
concern.
Healthcare
technology has really made incredible advances over the last several years.
However, while there is an app for almost everything, much still seems to be
stuck in the Fred Flintstone era.
Doctors
still carry around thick folders with years of patient history. Yesterday, this
was the only way to capture all of a patient's information. However, over the
last several years, we are seeing an information technology revolution change
healthcare.
Doctors
are spending more time with their computers during patient visits. On one hand,
this is obviously very good, but now we have noticed there are new problems to
be aware of.
I
recently gave a speech at a medical and heathcare meeting about how this new
information technology revolution is changing the medical and healthcare
industry. I also had the chance to mingle with many in the industry. They
definitely recognize the problem, but they have no answers yet. It's one thing
if we are talking about a new music box, but it's an entirely different thing if
we are talking about health, life and death.
It's
my job to poke and prod everyone in the audience. It's my job to make them feel
uncomfortable and get them to think more carefully about these new problems and
issues. If I don't get eggs thrown at me (figuratively speaking, of course), I
am not doing my job.
The
medical community sees the obvious benefit in technology but is not yet aware of
what can go wrong with all this IT.
Doctors
have always had to sort through mountains of data to find the spec of useful
information they need. Sharing this information with other doctors and hospitals
was slow and often hard to decipher. And if there were a fire or earthquake, all
this information could be lost.
Information
technology makes that much easier and faster. IT is protected. It's easy to
share. However, it has its own new problems to wrestle with. People in the
information technology industry have battled this for years, and it's time to
teach the healthcare industry what the problems and issues are and give them
tools to bring them up to speed.
I
am sure you sense these problems when you visit your doctor. Yesterday you would
be sitting in the same room, having a brief conversation as they listened to
your heart and your breathing and asked you to cough. Then they would write
notes in your file, which got thicker every year.
Today,
however, the doctor is sitting in front of the keyboard struggling with
transforming the way they do business. This early time can be taxing, to say the
least, for both the doctor and patient. Doctors are not technology experts, yet
they must enter the right information in the right places on the right screens
or bad things can happen to the patients.
There
is so much exciting news breaking every day. So much is changing in the
healthcare and pharma industries. We are seeing "e" in front of many
traditional terms. There's an ePharma conference in New York City next week with
many big-name companies as sponsors. There are many small companies and new Web
sites like www.RememberItNow.com.
It's owned by Pam Swingley, who set it up to help her take care of her father
and all his confusing medications and is now making this tool available to
others.
On
one hand, there are new apps we can use on our smartphones to monitor our aging
parents' vital signs, or to watch our kids at home while we are at work. On the
other hand, how many times have you visited your doctor during the last year or
two only to find they were trying to move everything from a paper world to a
digital world?
How
much of your visit is looking at the back of the doctor's head these days while
they are entering information in the computer? Then when they finally turn
around to actually interact with you, the visit was almost over.
This
is an exciting time of change. With that comes a set of risks. This is a big and
growing opportunity for the nation's wireless industry, both networks and
handset makers.
Going
forward, innovation and growth in wireless will come from other industries like
healthcare. Transforming this industry is an enormous task, but it will be very
positive in general for all the players. One area everyone needs to focus on is
staying tuned in to the patient.
This
change is full of good and bad, isn't it? This is not the way you want
healthcare to be. This is not the way they want to provide healthcare, either.
Yet this is what we are dealing with today during this transformation period,
which just started a few years ago and will continue for years to come.
Are
your doctors catching everything they need to with you and your condition, or
are they increasingly focused on the screen instead of their patient? They want
to be, but technology sucks their attention away.
This
is a problem. Going digital is the right thing to do for many reasons. It can
speed up the ability to share information. It can improve healthcare for
everyone. However, it is not without risk. If the doctor enters the wrong code
or number into your record, you pay the price.
When
we type on the computer, the spell checker corrects our mistakes, and if you are
like me, it corrects plenty. However, there is not spell checker for patient
information, and if a doctor enters the wrong information, no one may know until
it is too late.
Training
may be the answer to help doctors better understand how technology will change
their world, for better and for worse. Then again, how do we convince doctors
this is important? They are too busy as it is.
While
I think "e" technology moving into the medical and healthcare field is
a definite plus, and an unstoppable trend, it also comes with risks that need to
be managed properly. I don't think they are being managed well enough at this
point, but keeping this issue front and center is the right thing to do for
doctors and patients.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Jeff
Kagan is an E-Commerce Times columnist and industry analyst following wireless,
telecom and healthcare technology. He is also an author, speaker and consultant.
Email him at jeff@jeffKAGAN.com.
http://www.ecommercetimes.com/story/Riding-the-Wave-to-Success-71688.html
http://www.ecommercetimes.com/story/71688.html
OPINION
Riding
THE WAVE to Success
By
Jeff Kagan
E-Commerce
Times
01/20/11
5:00 AM PT
Companies
must realize every hot opportunity they ride is actually a Wave with a limited
life span. The Waves have been getting shorter over the last decade or two. That
means companies have to manage multiple Waves. They have to create the next Wave
before the first Wave collapses -- eventually, it always does.
As
I travel and speak at meetings around the country, one of the key topics that
has been capturing a lot of attention is something I call "the Wave."
This seems to be as interesting to the audience as it is to the executives who
invited me to speak. In fact, I am often invited back to spend some one-on-one
time with company leaders to discuss it further. I have been speaking for 25
years, and this seems to have hit a chord. Everyone wants to hear more. So what
is the Wave to success all about? Let me give you a brief introduction.
You
may not realize it yet, but you are already on this Wave right now. So is your
company. I think we must be born with an instinctive understanding of the
concept. It's a truth everyone knows, but never really thinks about or puts into
words. It is something brilliant marketers understand at their core. Most others
don't yet understand, but when they hit the ball out of the park every once in a
while they want to know how to make lightning strike twice -- and the again and
again.
Think
of the Wave as a line going from left to right. A line that rises until it
reaches the top then comes down the other side. The rise and the fall can be
rapid or slow depending on what is being measured, but the rise and fall are
always there.
Everything
and everyone is somewhere on the Wave. Part of this has to do with the power of
branding and how it has to continually be adapted and expanded to be successful
on an ongoing basis.
Let
me give you an example. Motorola (NYSE: MOT) was a long-time successful company
that grew to be No. 1 in the cell phone business through the mid 1990s. It was
on the growing and building and exciting side of the Wave. Customers loved the
company. Investors loved it. The media wrote stories about all itsr hot new
wireless toys. It was an incredible success wave that kept building.
I
remember the CEO of Ameritech showed me his brand new StarTac phone the company
had just started to sell when I was speaking at one of its meetings in Chicago.
It was tiny and hot. The only color it came in was black. However, it seemed
Motorola was bulletproof and everyone was tickled.
Then
the industry changed. The networks switched from analog to digital. Motorola was
analog. The company's leaders never thought the industry would switch without
them. They were wrong.
Suddenly
the new standard was digital. Motorola didn't understand branding and
sub-branding. Bottom line -- it was not able to successfully update its brand.
What happened next?
A
tiny company called Nokia (NYSE: NOK) saw the opportunity and took it. Nokia
built its brand on the digital handset model and became No. 1 over the last
decade. I am not sure if Nokia knew about the Wave idea either, or whether it
just got lucky.
Now,
after a decade in the lead, Nokia is beginning to feel the same pinch Motorola
has been wrestling with. Suddenly, the marketplace is changing from digital
handsets to super-smartphones, and Nokia just does not have a brand in that
area. Can it expand its brand?
After
several years, Motorola finally had a comeback with a device called "Razr."
That was a popular handset. Reporters were confused when I told them this was
great, but it was just one Wave. They thought the company was on its way to
repeat its past success, but I kept asking about the company's next Wave?
Without a next Wave, Motorola would simply ride its success up, then down, and
be back in trouble again.
Unfortunately
for the company, that's exactly what happened, and Motorola spent the last
several years at the bottom.
Now
Motorola seems to have another chance. It has struck gold once again with Google
Android and Verizon Wireless. Its success during the past year or so has been
inspiring, but once again I ask, what is its next step? What is the next Wave
for the company?
Fortunately,
Motorola is taking some additional steps. It is now expanding its Android
handsets to other carriers. This will help it spread the risk around among
different companies, which is good. However, this is still part of the same
Wave. Is it enough? This sounds similar to the Razr so far, doesn't it?
Motorola
is now getting ready to start another Wave with its tablet computer. If
successful, this could become another long-term success. That is the key. It has
to make this successful. The category is brand new and seems hot.
So,
it has to market an incredible device. Its challenge is to create another Wave
in a segment that is brand new but getting crowded. Then, after that, it needs
to create another Wave and another. A few months ago, I wrote "The Drivers
Steering Motorola's Comeback", which discusses this more in depth.
Companies
must realize every hot opportunity they ride is actually a Wave with a limited
life span. The Waves have been getting shorter over the last decade or two. That
means companies have to manage multiple Waves. They have to create the next Wave
before the first Wave collapses -- eventually, it always does.
One
more corporate example is where local phone lines are on the Wave. Until the mid
1990s, local phone lines were not hot, but when the Internet popped up, they
became red-hot. We got extra phone lines to connect to the Internet. However,
that Wave crested during the last decade and is on the decline.
We
no longer use phone lines to connect to the Internet -- we use DSL and cable TV
lines. Wireless phones are growing rapidly. So are other technologies like VoIP,
where Skype and Vonage and cable television companies are selling phone lines
over the Internet.
So
the local phone line business is on the decline now. That's why companies like
AT&T and Verizon are now focused on other areas like cellular, Internet and
television. The next Wave. And they are still growing.
Here
is an example of how the Wave affects you personally. Where are you on the Wave?
I am sure if you think about your life, you will remember times when you were in
the growing and exciting period. You were unstoppable. Invincible. Then there
were also times when you were coming down the other side, not growing.
We
as individuals usually have multiple Waves going on at one time. Some are young
and growing, while others have passed the peak and are on the decline. Our lives
are a mix of ups and downs.
Where
are you on your work Wave? What about on your family Wave, or your marriage,
health or money Wave? There are so many we juggle every day. That's part of the
reason why some days we feel up and positive, and other days we feel down and
negative.
It
depends on which Wave we are most focused on that day. If we are thinking about
our sick child or money lost or an argument with our spouse, we feel down -- but
when we are excited about an opportunity we are riding, we feel great.
This
is the basic idea of the Wave. This is what I have been spending so much time
discussing lately during my speeches, which is becoming surprisingly popular. I
want to open as many eyes as I can to this discovery. It's something we all
experience but something that is not taught.
Understanding
the Wave and the Brand are two important keys to success, whether personal or
professional. Everything is either on the growing or declining side of the Wave.
So
where are you? Where is your career? What about your company? Your investments?
What
about companies like AT&T Mobility, Verizon Wireless, Sprint, T-Mobile,
Clearwire, Qwest, CenturyLink, Windstream and other service providers? What
about mobile platform developers and handset makers like Google, Microsoft,
Apple, RIM, HP, Samsung, LG, HTC and Ericsson? Where are they on the Wave?
What
about the company you work for? Where is it on the wave? Is it on the early,
growing and exciting side, or on the declining side?
What
does the next year look like for you and the companies you care about? Some are
doing well, while others are struggling. Where each is on the Wave is key to
what is coming next for them. What about your children? Do they understand this
concept? If so, they could choose the right company from a group of competitors
to work for, couldn't they? There is so much about this topic that is exciting
and empowering.
As
I continue to travel and speak, I have been urged to write a book to discuss the
Wave in more depth. I would love to hear your thoughts, ideas and suggestions
for companies and individuals and where they are on the Wave, good or bad. Drop
me an email and keep an eye on my website for
news about the book.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Jeff
Kagan is an E-Commerce Times columnist and a wireless, telecom and technology
analyst, author, speaker and consultant. Email him at jeff@jeffKAGAN.com.
http://www.ecommercetimes.com/story/4G-Wireless-Truth-or-Fiction-71636.html
http://www.ecommercetimes.com/story/71636.html
OPINION
By
Jeff Kagan
E-Commerce
Times
01/13/11
5:00 AM PT
The
problem is that the carriers always advertise and market and use the next G.
That puts a false image on the service and in the mind of the consumer. Most
customers want something they cannot yet get. It's all about image for the
carriers. Wireless is just becoming one big marketing game. In that world, don't
honesty and clarity count? Is confusing the customer the only way to win?
Now
it's official: All four major wireless networks are now claiming they are 4G. Oh
really. Aha. Baloney. I really have learned to admire wireless marketing over
the years, but there are a few parts that are just wrong. This is one of them.
The wireless industry is crossing the line. If the carriers don't watch out,
they may hurt themselves in the long run, when customers and investors will no
longer believe the words coming out of their mouths.
At
this point, no carrier is all 4G. The media is getting smart on this issue. I
was interviewed several times on all this marketing-driven confusion. So who is
really ahead with 4G, and does it all really matter yet?
It
seems no carrier feels it can survive being left behind in this rapidly changing
industry. Why the rush? Remember, Ford once said customers could have any color
they wanted as long as it was black. That was fortitude. However, in today's
world we see the tail wagging the dog.
The
furthest along with 4G is Clearwire and its partner Sprint (NYSE: S). They have
been installing their WiMax in markets over the last two years and calling it
"4G." It does provide a faster signal, but it's debatable whether this
is real 4G.
Then
T-Mobile saw 4G as a marketing opportunity. It got a late start with 3G, so it
wanted to jump over that entire mistake and capture attention in this new world.
T-Mobile uses HSPA+. There has been lots of buzz about how this is more
marketing than reality at this point. Is it?
Verizon
Wireless announced its 4G plans a few weeks ago. It uses Long Term Evolution, or
LTE. It may have an aggressive plan for rolling out this fast service, but it is
just in the beginning, and there's a long way to go. In fact, Verizon has no LTE
phones in the market yet -- just cards for laptops. A look at its national
advertising shows Verizon trying to claim the 4G spot. Is it jumping the gun?
AT&T
Mobility (NYSE: T) didn't have plans to announce its 4G efforts until later in
the spring with its own LTE, similar to Verizon's. However, with everyone else
talking about 4G, AT&T didn't want to be left behind, so it just announced
it is starting with HSPA+, similar to T-Mobile. Do two wrongs make a right?
All
these carriers are talking about 4G, but all of them describe it with different
technologies and different speeds. Some are only a few times faster than 3G, and
others are 10 times the speed. That's a big difference isn't it? Calling it
"4G" makes it all OK?
Living
in the world of marketing can be a very strange place. Who sets the meaning for
the terms? The International Telecommunications Union, or ITU, says none of
these networks are really 4G. However, since today the competitors seem to care
about marketing more than standards, the ITU is a toothless tiger.
So
none of these top four networks are really 4G yet. That will change. If we move
out a year from now, we will surely see 4G in many markets -- but these claims
are really putting the horse ahead of the cart.
When
is the right time to start calling yourself "4G"? The wireless
industry doesn't transition overnight. It takes years to upgrade a network.
Until then, it starts with only a few customers who see the new speed. Then more
and more over the next couple years. However, the name suggests everyone gets
the benefit now. When over that multiyear period is it the right time for a
company to change its marketing messages?
One
thing to consider: Do people really want and need 4G today? Well, people get
caught up in the whirlwind of all the marketing and always want the next best
thing. That is normal. Over the next couple years, as the need for speed
increases, it will matter -- but not yet.
Would
you be surprised to hear there are still markets around the country that are
2.5G? There are. While the carriers focus on 4G, there are still many customers
waiting for 3G. That's just the way it goes.
At
any point in time, there are usually three different versions of a network.
Today, we are at the end of 2.5G, and 3G is almost everywhere, and now we are
introducing 4G. So how can the carriers talk about 4G like it is everywhere,
trying to win customers away from competitors?
The
problem is that the carriers always advertise and market and use the next G.
That puts a false image on the service and in the mind of the consumer. Most
customers want something they cannot yet get. It's all about image for the
carriers. So customers are always wanting something they can't get for months or
years. Is that really a smart marketing move for the long term?
Most
customers don't really care about these names. They just want to know their
carrier is always getting better and faster.
All
this chatter about 4G is just for the carriers themselves. They can't feel like
their competitor is better, even for a few months, so they all give themselves
names that make it sound like they are better then they really are. Sounds like
teenage boys in high school, doesn't it?
This
same thing happened several years ago as the networks upgraded to 3G. Now we are
going through it again. And it seems to be getting worse.
Wireless
is just becoming one big marketing game. In that world, don't honesty and
clarity count? Is confusing the customer the only way to win?
Will
this less-than-accurate marketing messaging send customers toward the doors? No,
I don't think so. This is not the first time half-truths were spoken, and they
are all still doing fine. However, I am learning this behavior often makes it
hard to really trust what the carriers say.
So this is the world we are stuck in, I guess. Unless the carriers finally get a backbone like Ford had and start telling it like it really is. Remember the old saying: You never want to see how a hot dog is made, but you love to eat it. Maybe it's the same thing here. So pass the mustard, please.
AT&T
Mobility used to be the only network in the U.S. that carried Apple's (Nasdaq:
AAPL) iPhone, but Verizon Wireless is jumping into the space in early February.
It
will be interesting to see how Verizon Wireless will change the marketplace.
What kind of impact will it have on AT&T? How many customers will AT&T
lose in the process, and how many will Verizon win?
This
is a big win for Apple, which can market the iPhone to millions more customers.
This is a big win for Verizon Wireless, since it can now sell the popular iPhone.
The big loser in this is AT&T Mobility -- but who knows what it will pull
out next and market like crazy?
All
the complaints users have had with AT&T Mobility's service may start to
diminish now that the pressure is being taken off its system. An interesting
question is whether Verizon Wireless will start to face some of the same
problems. It says it won't, but that's what AT&T has been saying all along.
The
proof is in the pudding, and we will soon see. I hope this Verizon entry will
give good quality service for its customers and take the pressure off AT&T
so that its customers get better service than they've become used to.
Don't
know the answers yet, but having two networks offering the iPhone should be
better for the marketplace.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Jeff
Kagan is an E-Commerce Times columnist and a wireless, telecom and technology
analyst, author, speaker and consultant. Email him at jeff@jeffKAGAN.com.
http://www.ecommercetimes.com/story/CES-Being-There-71581.html
http://www.ecommercetimes.com/story/71581.html
OPINION
By
Jeff Kagan
E-Commerce
Times
01/06/11
5:00 AM PT
What,
there are no cars? You should have booked one months in advance? There are
hundreds, if not thousands, of additional cars brought in from Los Angeles and
other hot spots, but still no car for you? You are stuck in this taxi line
waiting for a cab? Get used to it. That's life for the next few days.
The
annual giant Consumer Electronics Show is happening this week in Las Vegas, and
once again everything new in the electronics world is on display. I've been to a
number of these CES events, and each seems bigger than the last. It is held not
only in the very large Las Vegas Convention Center, but also at the Sands
convention center and many other casino convention centers up and down the
strip, between official and unofficial sites.
In
fact, there are countless big tents with corporate logos pitched in parking
lots. Maybe it's cheaper than setting up a booth inside -- who knows? Why else
would they be outside in the winter? Even in the desert, it gets cold and rains
now and then. This year, there's been an effort to curtail the show's growth by
cutting down on the vast number of attendees. We'll see what that does.
If
you have never been to the show, let me give you a tour. If you've been to any
other trade show before and think you understand -- let me just say, no you
don't. That was my first mistake.
First
I arrive in town, walk off the airplane and am immediately thrust into the rush
of people flowing toward the shuttle to baggage claim. The good part of all this
chaos is you don't actually have to walk, because you are carried along. It's
like floating in a rushing stream.
You
come down the escalators and see the luggage racks, but then you look around and
realize there is not any room for another human being down there. Yet your
escalator thrusts more folks into the steaming mass. You are one of them. After
a while you make it to your luggage rack to wait and pick up your bag. And wait.
And wait. An hour later when you finally see it, you grab your bag and rush to
the taxi stand.
You're
free at last... you think... until you see the line for a cab. You realize this
is like Disney World on its busiest day. A long line snaking back and forth and
back and forth so many times you get dizzy.
Instead
of waiting like everyone else, you decide to call for a limo instead, not
thinking this may be their busiest time of the year too. What, there are no
cars? You should have booked it months in advance? There are hundreds, if not
thousands, of additional cars brought in from Los Angeles and other hot spots,
but still no car for you? You are stuck in this taxi line waiting for a cab? Get
used to it. That's life for the next few days.
By
the time you actually get your taxi it feels like tomorrow. OK you are driving
away from this crowd into Vegas. Now you are free at last. The cab driver is
nice this time. He's happy because he's finally making some money I guess. Vegas
has been slow the last couple years. He gives you the lay of the land. You say
you can't believe how many people were at the airport. He laughs and says just
wait.
Las
Vegas has always been a hopping place until a couple years ago, when the
president put a kibosh on the town. Suddenly shows canceled. People stopped
coming. Money dried up. That threw this shining city in the desert into near
financial turmoil. Tourism is its lifeblood after all. Avoid the town?
Vegas
is finally starting to come back from that punch in the gut -- slowly -- but
when CES is in town, it's like the good ole days. The good news is many of the
big hotels have their SOLD OUT signs lit with pride.
I
get to the hotel to relax before getting started, but find another long line to
check in. After another long wait, I finally get my room. After checking email
and freshening up, I grab my stuff and head out to the show.
The
taxi stand at the hotel is just as obnoxious and long as at the airport. So I go
to the bus, which will take me there more quickly, I hope.
I
step off the bus and look around at all the people. There is a sea of people.
Attendance at the show is expected to reach 120,000, and this is just the
outflow. That's better than the 150,000 who attended in the past, but it's still
enormous. There are 2,500 booths and about 1,200 of them are from overseas. This
is truly an international show.
I
walk in the doors and see the various entrances to the show. I get a map, which
will make it easy to find the booths where I have appointments. I look at the
map and cry. This is the largest floor I have ever seen, and this is only one of
the many different floors where I have to be.
There
I stand, in a mass of people, in one of many big convention center rooms, trying
to find a needle in this haystack. Then the next needle, and the next.
To
make matters worse, my first appointment is in this mass somewhere, but my next
appointment is in a hotel up the strip. A short distance typically, but with
this crowd there is no possible way to make it all happen. Interview after
interview. This is an incredible zoo.
Then
an idea pops into my head. Maybe next year, I will have a booth. Yeah -- then
they can all break their neck to try and get to me. That's the ticket. But that
is next year. For now, I have to battle the crowds like everyone else.
I've
learned there are countless limos to take you from event to event if you have
the right connections. Fortunately I do, sometimes. That makes navigating the
crowd much more doable. Still I'm exhausted by 11a.m.!
When
you are reading the stories from all the media covering the show, cut them some
slack. They too are numb from the shoulders up trying to survive this massive
human thrust, while at the same time trying to write something that everyone
else in the world can understand.
We
are better off reading the stories for a sense of what is new and what is
coming, but not for a real sense of how it will compare, compete and perform in
the marketplace. You get too wrapped up in the excitement of the event to be
objective. It is too easy to disconnect from the world in your mind while being
rushing from news conference to briefing to interview.
OK,
it's the end of the day. The show is over for the day. Thank goodness. Tomorrow
is another day. Time to go back to the hotel for a little dinner and a good
night sleep. Its 5 p.m. Vegas time, which means 8 p.m. to me.
Wait
-- I forgot -- there are still a handful of party events I am scheduled for
tonight at some of Vegas' hot spots. Don't get excited, though, these are not
typical Vegas parties. They are full of the same dull or crazy people I've been
battling all day, only this time we are battling for a crab leg while touring
more booths. These can sometimes be interesting as senior executives are often
present.
The
booths at the show are huge. Actually they are like small cities. Companies like
AT&T, Verizon, Sprint, Qwest and T-Mobile are always there somewhere. Now
new companies like CenturyLink and Windstream may be getting involved. Google
and Apple are now in the cellphone space, so it makes sense to see them there --
but Apple is never at CES. I wonder what it will announce at its show. Booths at
these after-the-show events are smaller and more intimate.
Wireless
and cellular always plays a role at the show, but this is not a wireless show.
That is just one of many segments of the consumer electronics industry
represented at CES. This is the place to see it all in action, even before it's
in the marketplace.
Telecom
-- wireless and wireline -- does play an important role in the consumer
electronics industry, since it's the highway the cars ride on.
Now
please excuse me while I grab a few shrimp and crabs legs from the table for
nourishment. What... this is Vegas. Got a long night ahead looking at all the
upcoming smartphones and tablet computers and 3D TVs with built-in coolers so
you don't have to walk to the kitchen anymore. What will they think of next?
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Jeff
Kagan is an E-Commerce Times columnist and a wireless, telecom and technology
analyst, author, speaker and consultant. Email him at jeff@jeffKAGAN.com.