The Jeff Kagan Report & Comment

 

Details on the New report. Read preview below: 

 

STATE OF THE INDUSTRY 2010;

Wireless and Telecom in Transition

Opportunities, Challenges and Risks. What’s coming next?

Looking at companies who are winning and losing, and at the changing industry

By Jeff Kagan, Telecom industry analyst

 

PRICE: $490 (US).    Approx 75 pages.    Report # 1331.    Now available for purchase.    12/20/09

Questions? contact Jeff Kagan at jeff@jeffkagan.com or 770-579-5810

Each report is protected under Copyright. All Rights Reserved. Ownership of information remains with Jeff Kagan. Reproduction and distribution or using quotes from this publication or information in any form without prior written permission is forbidden. If you want to purchase reports to distribute please contact Jeff Kagan.  

Pay for reports either individually by the report, or with an annual retainer for all reports for 12 months. Retainers can be paid per month or annually. To purchase this report follow instructions below. To discuss a retainer relationship please email me at jeff@jeffkagan.com

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This new Jeff Kagan Report & Comment 

is now available for purchase

It includes . . . 

 

The rules of success are different now. The core of this industry changes every few years. It is changing again. 

Staying on track is critical to success.  

 

This report looks at;

-    Who is currently  winning, who is losing and why?

-         What is new and what is next?  And when. 

-         How will changing government regulation impact the growth rate and opportunities?

-         What new ideas, companies and brands are transforming the industry?

-         Which companies, technologies and ideas are at the beginning of their growth curve, and which are at the end?

-         Will the regular wireless handset market recover?

-         Will the entire wireless market go smart phone?

-         As the industry closes in on 300 million devices in the US where will growth come from?

 

Over the next few years the industry will continue to transform. New leaders will emerge. Old leaders will struggle. Well-known brands and strategies must be updated. New thinking continues to reshape the industry.  

The good news is opportunities are enormous, but they look very different from the past. What do companies have to do for continued success? What new threats do existing leaders have to keep their eyes on?  

This report is for industry executives, investors, workers, customers, advertising and public relations firms, regulators, media, students and more.  

It looks at wireless and telephone companies and their competitors, as well as networks and handset makers. 

Included are industry groups like telephone, wireless and cellular, cable television, IPTV, Internet, and much more.

It takes a close look at many companies. What they are doing right and wrong and what is the next big threat they face.

 

Contact;

Jeff Kagan

Telecom industry analyst

The Jeff Kagan Report & Comment

(770)579-5810  

Email; jeff@jeffkagan.com     

Web site; www.jeffkagan.com

 

 

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Preview of first few pages from the report

 

STATE OF THE INDUSTRY 2010

Wireless and Telecom in Transition

 

What’s coming next?

Opportunities, challenges and risk

 

By Jeff Kagan

Telecom Industry Analyst

 

Copyright 2009 Jeff Kagan. All Rights Reserved. Reproduction and distribution or using quotes from this publication or information in any form without prior written permission is forbidden. Information contained here has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Jeff Kagan disclaims all warranties as to the accuracy, completeness or adequacy of such information. Although this research may discuss legal or investment issues, Jeff Kagan does not provide legal advice or services, or investment advice or services. Jeff Kagan shall have no liability for errors, omissions or inadequacies in the information contained here or for interpretations thereof. The opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice. Caution, once this material has been sent, it could be changed, so only trust material e-mailed directly from Jeff Kagan at jeff@jeffkagan.com. If you want to purchase reports to distribute please contact Jeff Kagan.

 

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

 

~ Who will benefit from this report?

 

~ About the author

 

~1~ Overview

 

~2~ The State of our Industry

 

~3~ The current path of telecom – wireless and wire-line

 

~4~ The changing industry

 

~5~ A look at the companies

Companies performance; on the way up, stalled, or on the way down?

Other companies like 

and more keep the wireless and wire line telecom story growing.

 

~6~ Conclusion

 

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WHO WILL BENEFIT FROM THIS REPORT

 

THIS REPORT is for anyone interested in the wireless and wire-line telecom business. People who want a quick snapshot of the transformation of the industry. This looks at the changing competitive marketplace, changing technology, what is new and who is winning, losing, and why.

It looks at where we have come from, where we are today, where we are headed tomorrow, and where we are going over the next 5 – 10 years.

This is written for industry executives and employees, investors and customers. It focuses on the changing wireless and wire-line industry, and new opportunities and challenges that presents.

 

Interested readers include;

 

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About the author.

Over the past twenty-five years Jeff Kagan has been a telecom industry analyst, speaker, author, and now publishes the Jeff Kagan Report & Comment.

This report shares his thoughts, research and opinions on the topic with you.

Over the past 25 years he has pulled back the camera and looks at the longer-term historical perspective on the topics he covers and as the industry continues to change. He has followed the growth and transformation in the wireless, telephone, cable television, IPTV and Internet space. He speaks at meetings, has written articles, and participated in meetings at companies, industry conferences and colleges and universities with groups of executives, employees, customers and investors.

His research and thoughts are shared through the reports, annual subscriptions, consulting services and speeches. See www.jeffkagan.com for more information.

He examines the competitive and changing industry, technologies, advertising and marketing issues and strategies companies face as they compete. This includes technology trends, customer behavior, business models and whether companies are winning, losing and why.

Jeff Kagan looks for what’s hot, what’s not, why, and what’s next. He looks at the changing companies, opportunities, challenges, technologies, competition, regulation, politics and changing industry from a high level.

He has worked with many of the companies he has written about which gives him deeper insights to offer in these reports.

If this report is missing something you wanted to see, or if you have another idea for a report, let me know.

This is my thinking on the subject, the same as I share with the media and in speeches. If you would like to add to my thinking I invite you to contact me at jeff@jeffkagan.com ¨

 

Jeff Kagan, PO Box 670562, Marietta GA 30066 770-579-5810 jeff@jeffkagan.com www.jeffkagan.com

 

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~1~

OVERVIEW

 

Unintended consequences are the biggest unknown

Remember last year as wireless carriers publicized their brand new unlimited voice and data plans? They were trying to generate user traffic. They obviously succeeded. Perhaps too much success. AT&T is now trying to slow down demand from the small percentage of very heavy users.

 

This is one of the times of the year I give speeches on the changing industry. Looking at where we came from, where we are today, where we are heading tomorrow, and looking down the road over the next 5 – 10 years. This report is a longer version of my typical State of the Industry speech, but still cannot cover all of this exploding industry.

Yes it is that time where we pull the camera back and take a big-picture look at our changing industry. At the direction things are headed. To make sure we are on the right track. To make sure we stay there. To take score to see what we have accomplished, and what our competitors have done. A look at who is winning, who is losing and why. About the fast growing and fast changing companies and technologies. About what’s new and growing, and about what’s fading away.

Over the last 25 years I have followed the changing industry and watched countless companies succeed and fail, and technologies grow and fade. The lessons have been many. So have been the surprises. This year is no different. The industry is dealing with some very surprising turns and competitive moves.

Some companies are early in their opportunity-curve like smart phones and Netbooks, while others are at the end of theirs. Some companies and technologies are still here after all these years, while others are gone. And the next big new idea that will change the world has yet to be introduced and is in the quiet building and planning stage in the back office or even the corner of the garage.

Most of what we talk about, read about and use every day is new technology. It is in the media and that stokes the fire of interest. New ideas come from existing competitors, or new competitors to the space or young companies with new ideas.

This is a very exciting time to be in the industry. A time of change and full of ripe opportunity and risk. Fortunes are being made and lost. Some stories are very surprising.

What new companies and technologies are going to be winners going forward for workers, investors and customers? Which are at the beginning of their exciting opportunity and which are at the end of theirs?

That is what this report focuses on. The companies and ideas which are at the center of this wave of change. Ideas that are hot today, and ideas that will be hot next. Sometimes with all the hype it is hard to tell what is coming next.

Yet that is our most important job. To be there, before we get there, so we can profit and lead in our changing industry. Fortunately leaders change. So do followers. We have seen many changes over the last decade or two.

Motorola lead until the mid 1990’s. Then Nokia lead ever since. Now the smart phone market is exploding while the plain handset business has slowed. Suddenly Nokia is not growing like they had been because their brand is for plain handsets.

Will Nokia re-define their brand or lose the lead to a new competitor like Apple or Google or Samsung?

These are the issues every executive, worker, investor and customer face every day in this exciting industry.

 

 

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~2~

THE STATE OF OUR INDUSTRY

The State of the Telecom Industry is very good and very strong.

Both the wireless and wire-line opportunities and risks are changing.

Are you ready for the next step?

 

It continues with strong growth and rapid change. Parts are on the upswing and other parts that are on the downswing. The industry is pulled at both ends as it wrestles with the bad economy and continuing change and innovation.

The wireless and wire-line industry is going through very important and very significant long-term changes. A seismic-shift of the telecom variety. In a few years it will not look like the same industry it is today. It has already changed dramatically over the last ten years, and is continuing that pattern over the next ten years and beyond.

Is the party over? Some individual companies are staying on-track and leading the way, while others are having trouble. Wireless networks for example, are still growing rapidly, but that growth is changing. New customers are harder to find as we reach the upper limits of 300 million devices and people in the United States. Winning customers from each other is the new focus. Looking for new opportunities is another. Fortunately there are plenty, but who wins and who loses in this new area is not clear yet.

The industry is growing and strong, but already looks very different than just a few years ago. Not every company and every area in the industry is strong. There are weaknesses.

Forbes cover story in November 2009 talked about the $10 phone bill. The cover page articles talks about the $116 billion business of selling cell phone calls in the US facing a long and ugly decline. That this scares everyone in the industry except Roger Linquist the CEO of MetroPCS. This may sound crazy, but it illustrates the point I am making.

Just like over the past ten and twenty years we have seen waves of change wash over the industry and transform it, those waves continue. Certain parts of the business are in the early stages and other parts are in the late stages.

The wireless business is re-inventing itself. Non-cell companies like Apple and Google are suddenly leading the way to this next generation. Yesterday if you picked up your phone to make a call, it went over the phone network, period. Today wireless is a large part of the total calls made. Today the Internet plays a larger roll with wireless calls with wi-fi, wi-max and 4G. Will your call go over the regular wireless network, or over one of the VoIP providers like Vonage or Skype? Accessing the Internet plays a larger roll in wireless going forward. We won’t have to carry our laptops around with us on every trip anymore.

How does that change the entire economic model of the industry?

The brands are changing. Like in the 1990’s when Motorola was the number one handset maker, then lost to Nokia, suddenly Nokia is at risk of falling behind other handset makers like Apple, Google, Samsung and others.

It is the regular handset vs. the smart phone and the smart phone is winning.

Companies who have build their brand around the smart phone are winning business while other companies who built their brand around the regular handset are not.

In this report we will look at the strong, those who have stumbled, those who may stumble. We will discuss shifting trends and who is doing a good job shifting with them.

This has been one of the toughest years in the history of the general economy. Different industries have been under enormous pressure. Banking, automotive, travel, real estate and many others have struggled against enormous headwinds that are reshaping them.

Generally speaking, after a very rough year in the general economy, the health of the wireless and wire-line telecom industry remains very strong, but is rapidly changing. Some of that change is because of the economy, but most was already under way.

The pressure is on though. Pressure to change. Pressure to transform the industry. Pressure from Washington DC, from investors, from workers and from customers. What will the industry will look like and how transformative will these waves of change be?

It is important to understand the direction of the industry. Where it has come from, where it is today, and where it is heading tomorrow in order to tell the difference between companies that are in the early stages or late stages of the opportunities and areas they currently compete in.

Plus the direction of change is different during the next few years compared with what we have seen over the last few years.

Along with great opportunity there is always great risk. The next several years look like risk will play a larger role. There is always plenty of talk among those in the industry about the direction things are heading.

Another big question is now about Washington DC. Massive waves of change are getting ready to roll out across, and reshape the industry starting in 2010.

It is important to understand so many competing interests. What about the direction of the industry? Which areas are growing stronger and which are getting weaker?

Key questions we ask ourselves include, how do I successfully compete? Where should I work? Where should I invest? Where should I buy services?

 

Jobs

This is one of the most asked about topics. Where are the jobs? Followed by where are the jobs going? Last decade all sectors of telecom were growing. Hiring was occurring so quickly and from so many companies. This was definitely one of the key places to be.

Then after 2000 everything changes. At first everything hit a brick wall. Some companies shrunk dramatically cutting more than 75% of their work force. Companies like Lucent and Nortel who were flying high suddenly were in dire straights.

During the 2000’s things got better, but only for certain sectors. Here is a nutshell today;

Wire line is shrinking. Still important, but not growing. Jobs are continuing to be cut. Telephone companies are losing customers. Other competitors like cable television companies and VoIP companies are hiring, but these are not paying at nearly the same scale. This will continue.

Wireless is growing. this is one part of the telecom industry that is growing strong. The wireless telephone side is still strong and still growing. However real growth, rapid can't keep up with the sudden rush of demand growth is in the wireless data services. This will also continue. Although there are fewer and larger companies so fewer total jobs. 

The number of companies in the industry continues to shrink. Last decade there were three big long distance companies and many small ones. There were seven baby bells, too many wireless companies to count and a growing number of Internet companies. In addition there were countless smaller cable television companies. A great marketplace for jobs.

Today however it is different. Companies have merged. Today there are only three baby bells, no long distance companies, and just a handful of cell phone companies. There are fewer cable television companies and the Internet while still growing did lose many companies around 2000.

Consolidation has occurred and is continuing. In this marketplace it depends where you are. Whether your sector is growing or shrinking.

Mergers will continue. The pressure is on to lower costs and have a larger footprint and customer universe. Although you may think all of the potential merger partners have occurred, and you are right to a large extent, there are also many smaller competitors who will continue to merge.

Making calls over the phone company is still here, but it is not the growing part of the business. Wireless is. So are making calls over the Internet with VoIP. Next we are looking at making calls over the wireless Internet. Companies like Skype and Vonage are actively chasing that dream. You see their icons on some telephone handsets like the iPhone.

The quality is NOT as good as traditional phone services, but it is cheap or even free and that is attractive. So you can’t understand each other. Many people don’t want to be bothered with the details.

When using your cell phone today’s handsets have built in GPS technology which not only let’s users tell where they are on a map on the screen, but also tells you where the nearest pizza or coffee shop is with directions of how to get there.

This is all part of that amazing wireless data growth and we are only at the early stages.

Cable television is continuing to do strong business, as is the telephone companies new IPTV service. Many customers cut back to a basic service at a lower monthly cost, but in coming years as the economy gets better many may increase their packages once again. Growth for the industry.

Cable television has done well, and is poised to do even better in the next several years. 

These are all very important questions and issues, but come at the issue from different directions. Let's roll up our sleeves and take a closer look in this report. We will look at the timeline of these general trends as well as the networks, the handset makers, the equipment makers on both the wireless and the wire-line sides of the business.

 

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